College Football: Week 6 Betting Picks

Sean McDermottContributor IIIOctober 4, 2012

College Football: Week 6 Betting Picks

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    Hello, everyone! I'm back from vacation and looking to avenge my dreadful Week 4 picks. It was a rough Week 4, as I went 2-3 with my picks but once again won the Game of the Week (which stands at a perfect 4-0). So this week will be a special week. I'm going to pick three games and two Games of the Week. Let's get back on track with my betting picks for Week Six.

     

    2012 Record ATS

    10-8 (4-0 Game of the Week Pick)

     

    Week 4 results

    Eastern Michigan Eagles 7 vs. Michigan State Spartans (-31) Loss

    Central Michigan Chippewas 32 vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-14) Loss

    Oregon State Beavers 27 vs. UCLA Bruins (-7.5) Loss

    Utah Utes 7 vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (-6) Win

     

    Game of the Week Pick

    No. 15 Kansas State Wildcats 24 vs. Oklahoma Sooners 19 (-16.5) Win

No. 24 Northwestern Wildcats vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

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    Date: Saturday, October 6

    Time: 12:00 p.m. EDT

    Current Line: Penn State by 2.5

     

    The Story

    Looking for their best start in 50 years, the 24th-ranked Wildcats carry a 5-0 record to Happy Valley to take on the upstart Nittany Lions, who are coming off an impressive 35-7 victory against the fighting Illini.

    So far this season, Northwestern's two-quarterback system has worked well. Kain Colter seems to be the Tim Tebow/senior leader of the Wildcats offense, while strong-armed Trevor Siemian has been the man behind center the most.

    The Wildcats will look to continue to run over defenses as their ninth-ranked rushing attack takes on Penn State's 87th-ranked rushing defense. After starting off the 2012 season with horrendous losses to Ohio and Temple, Bill O' Brien's Lions have started to gain momentum in the right direction.

    The Nittany Lions have won three straight. The key to the Nittany Lions will be their passing attack against a weak Northwestern pass defense. The Wildcats give up 210.8 yards per game (85th in the nation).

     

    Recent Trends

    Penn State is 5-2 ATS against Northwestern since 1992 and 2-0 in the last three seasons. Penn State beat Northwestern 35-21 in 2010 and 34-24 in 2011. Northwestern is 5-0 ATS this season. Penn State is 4-1 ATS.

     

    Sport's Pick

    Both teams match up well against each other. In my mind, no one has a clear advantage.

    Penn State comes into this game as spoilers, since they cannot play for a Big Ten championship or receive a bowl bid. Northwestern is trying to relive the magic of when Pat Fitzgerald suited up in 1995, when the Wildcats won the Big Ten and went to the Rose Bowl.

    With so many disappointing Big Ten teams, the Wildcats stand alone as the only bright spot. With that being said, I'd say Fitzgerald's rushing attack will be enough for the Wildcats to survive. Take the 'Cats.

    Northwestern +2.5

    Northwestern 24 Penn State 20

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. No. 15 Clemson Tigers

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    Date: Saturday, October 6

    Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT 

    Current Line: Clemson by 10.5 

     

    The Story

    A 12-point loss to Florida State knocked the Tigers down in the Top 25 and pushed them just outside the ACC Championship picture.

    Clemson came out against the lowly Boston College Eagle team and won 45-31. Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd accounted for four touchdowns. The key for Clemson will be how well their rushing defense can hold up against the No. 3 rushing attack in the nation.

    The Yellow Jackets gained an average of 329.4 rushing yards per game, while the Tigers gave up 175.4 rushing yards.

    After two straight losses, one being to Middle Tennessee State, the Yellow Jackets have fallen from grace. The key to the Yellow Jackets will be their ability to pass. The Yellow Jackets hold the 111th-best passing attack in the nation out of 124 teams.

    The Tigers have a mediocre defense and their secondary is weak. The Tigers defense will be focusing solely on the GT's running game.

     

    Recent Trends

    Both Georgia Tech and Clemson are 3-2 this year ATS. Clemson is 12-9 ATS against Georgia Tech since 1992 and 1-1 in the last three years. Clemson is 4-1 when they are a favorite of 10 to 21 points in the last three years, while Georgia Tech is 2-0 in the same category.

     

    Sport's Pick

    Clemson is going to come out hot in this game. The Tigers are looking to jump back into the Top 10 and ACC Championship picture, while the Yellow Jackets are nursing horrendous losses to Miami (Fl) and Middle Tennessee State. Take the Tigers.

    Clemson -10.5

    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 17 Clemson Tigers 34 

Game of the Week No. 1: No. 4 LSU Tigers vs. No. 10 Florida Gators

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    Date: Saturday, October 6

    Time: 3:30 p.m. EDT

    Current Line: Florida by 2.5

     

    The Story

    Two straight questionable games by LSU has the "Gatornation" eager to take on the Tigers as the Florida Gators host LSU in "The Swamp."

    Two weeks ago, LSU escaped from Auburn in a low-scoring affair as they prevailed 12-10. Last week, the Tigers struggled through the entire 60 minutes of play against FCS school Towson, as they won in ugly fashion 38-22. The terrible play of the 5-0 Tigers knocked them down the Top 25 board.

    The key for the Tigers will be to get their offense started quickly. The Gators defense is one of the best in the nation, ranking 25th in pass defense and 37th in rush defense. If the Tigers continue their weak offensive display, they won't last the full game.

    The Gators have been one of the underrated teams in the FBS. Key wins against SEC newcomer Texas A&M and former Top 25-ranked Tennessee, the Gators are competing for the SEC Championship.

    With three tough matches left on their schedule (South Carolina, @Georgia and @Florida State), the Gators need this victory to show the SEC they are one of the teams to beat. The Gators' key to victory will be the play of Jeff Driskel. The Gators hold the 106th best passing attack.

     

    Recent Trends

    Florida is 3-1 ATS this year. LSU is 2-3 ATS this year. LSU is 5-1 as a road favorite in the last three seasons. Florida is 1-7 as an underdog in the last three seasons but 1-0 this year.

     

    Sport's Pick

    "Gatornation" will be out in "The Swamp" looking for Tiger Blood (no, not Charlie Sheen). I don't know what it is, but LSU just doesn't look good. The Gators and Tigers defense will keep the game close, with the Gators pulling off the upset in the final seconds of the game. The Gators will chomp the Tigers and avenge their 30-point loss from last year. Take the Gators.

Game of the Week No. 2: No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 6 South Carolina Gamecocks

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    Date: Saturday, October 6

    Time: 7:00 p.m. EDT 

    Current Line: South Carolina by 1

     

    The Story

    Two undefeated SEC teams square off in an ESPN Game of the Night matchup. Both teams have been hungry for an SEC crown and have had a long drought for the National Championship.

    This game has all the makings of a close shootout.

    Georgia comes into the game with an outstanding offense. The Bulldogs rank 29th in pass offense and 11th in rushing. The Bulldogs have a mediocre defense, as they rank 56th in pass defense and 54th in rushing.

    Last week, the Bulldogs survived a tough task against a very good Tennessee team that just fell short in a 51-44 loss. The Bulldogs will have to improve on the defensive side of the ball if they want to win their first real test of the 2012 season. The Gamecocks have yet to give up anything more than 17 points this season.

    Quality wins against Vanderbilt and Missouri have been the only tough games played this season. Once again, this will be South Carolina's first big test of the season. The Gamecocks have the eighth-best rushing defense in the nation, but the 47th-best passing defense, which Aaron Murray looks to exploit.

    The Gamecocks need Connor Shaw to play a bigger role in the offense, as the Bulldogs have Marcus Lattimore's number.

     

    Recent Trends

    This season, Georgia is 2-3 ATS. South Carolina this year is 4-1 ATS. South Carolina is 2-0 against Georgia ATS in the last three years.

     

    The Pick

    A battle will take place under the lights on Saturday. A very tough match-up to call, both teams are very evenly matched. Georgia has been clawing for an SEC championship for awhile. Even though Mark Richt has an amazing record at Georgia, many people are upset with his inability to win. Despite the recent trends, I'll take the Bulldogs to win in a very close game. Yes, Lee Corso, that sure is an ugly dog, but Georgia wins. 

    Georgia +1

    Georgia Bulldogs 42, South Carolina 40

     

    All lines are subject to change based on the line movement. All lines are fromScoresandOdds.com

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