UFC 153: Early Odds and Predictions

Nathan McCarterFeatured ColumnistOctober 2, 2012

UFC 153: Early Odds and Predictions

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    UFC 153 takes place from the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 13, 2012. The much debated main event will be Anderson Silva moving back up to 205 to tangle with Stephan Bonnar.

    The rest of the card is stacked as well.

    The co-main event of the evening features a heavyweight clash between Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Dave Herman.

    The 13 fight card will air live, beginning on Facebook. Four FX preliminary fights will air at 8 p.m. ET before the PPV kicks off at 10 p.m.

    Here is an early look at the main card with odds and predictions.

Demian Maia vs. Rick Story

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    In the opening fight for PPV, Demian Maia (16-4) takes his second welterweight fight against Rick "Horror" Story (14-5).

    Maia was successful in his welterweight debut over Dong Hyun Kim, and Story recently picked up a decision victory over Brock Jardine at UFC on FX: Guida vs. Maynard.

    Story will need to keep the fight on the feet. Should he revert to his wrestling attack and put Maia on the ground, he will be playing with fire. Maia has not submitted anyone in the UFC since 2009, but he remains one of the very best on the mat.

    It will be difficult for Story to keep Maia off of him for 15 minutes. Watch for Maia to return to his roots at home and pick up his first submission victory in more than three years.

     

    Betting Odds: Demian Maia (-135) over Rick Story (+105) at Bovada.lv

    Prediction: Maia defeats Story via submission in the first round.

Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado

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    Phil Davis (9-1, 1 NC) and Wagner Prado (8-0, 1 NC) meet in a rematch after their short lived no contest at UFC on Fox: Shogun vs. Vera.

    In the rematch, watch for the evolution of Davis. The talented wrestler was on the precipice of joining the ranks of the elite before his fight with Rashad Evans. That loss will help Davis evolve into a much more dangerous fighter.

    Davis can dictate where the fight takes place and may use this fight to test out his striking. At some point he will go back to his bread and butter and take Prado down. On the mat, the powerful Davis will lock on a submission and finish Prado.

     

    Betting Odds were not available at the time of publishing.

    Prediction: Davis defeats Prado via submission in the first round.

Jon Fitch vs. Erick Silva

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    One of the most interesting bouts on the card is Jon Fitch (23-4-1, 1 NC) vs. Erick Silva (15-2, 1 NC). The new kid on the block, Silva, takes on one of the long time contenders, Fitch.

    Silva has been explosive in his short UFC tenure and has made waves as a potential future contender for the gold. Meanwhile, Fitch returned from a long layoff to be unceremoniously knocked out by Johny Hendricks.

    No one knows how Silva will react when pushed. Charlie Brenneman had Silva down for a brief period of time before he popped back to his feet, but if Fitch can get Silva to the mat, he may be stuck beneath the grinder.

    I believe Fitch will show why he is still one of the very best welterweights in the world by pushing Silva to the max for 15 minutes. Fitch will control the pace of the action and slowly wear Silva down for a unanimous decision victory.

     

    Betting Odds: Silva (-130) over Fitch (Even) at Bovada.lv

    Prediction: Fitch defeats Silva by unanimous decision.

Glover Teixeira vs. Fabio Maldonado

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    Glover Teixeira (18-2) made his long awaited UFC debut by mauling Kyle Kingsbury. Now he returns to the cage to take on Fabio Maldonado (18-5).

    Maldonado has lost two straight, including one to Kingsbury and could be on his way out with a loss.

    That is what I expect to happen.

    This should be another showcase of Teixeira's skills as he quickly moves up the light heavyweight ranks en route to a potential title shot.

     

    Betting Odds were not available at the time of publishing.

    Prediction: Teixeira defeats Maldonado by TKO in the first round.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Dave Herman

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    Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1, 1 NC) finally makes his return to the cage after Frank Mir snapped his arm back at UFC 140 when he fights Dave Herman (21-4).

    Both heavyweights are trying to pick up a W after losses to Top 10 heavyweights. Herman has suffered back-to-back losses to Stefan Struve and Roy Nelson.

    If Herman is able to keep the fight on the feet, he will have a significant advantage over Nogueira. While Nogueira has improved his stand-up over the years, he is still very slow and plodding. However, he is still able to take a good shot.

    Over the course of 15 minutes one has to side with the legend. At some point he will find a way to put Herman down and finish the fight. Nogueira will make an emphatic return to the UFC.

     

    Betting Odds were not available at the time of publishing.

    Prediction: Nogueira defeats Herman via submission in the second round.

Anderson Silva vs. Stephan Bonnar

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    The greatest fighter in the history of the UFC, Anderson Silva (32-4), steps up on short notice to help save the UFC 153 card. Also stepping up, one of the original Ultimate Fighters, Stephan Bonnar (14-7).

    The trailer for UFC 153 has it right, this fight will either produce another spectacular finish by Silva or be one of the most historic upsets in MMA history.

    Bonnar is a gamer. He is tough. In his long career he has only been stopped twice, and both fights were stopped due to a cut. Add in his Jiu-Jitsu game and suddenly this fight becomes a lot more interesting than originally thought.

    Bonnar will go toe-to-toe with Silva and that will prove to be the mistake that leads to something astonishing by Silva. He will continue to awe everyone. Silva will be the first man to legitimately knock Bonnar out.

     

    Betting Odds: Silva (-1400) over Bonnar (+750) at Bovada.lv

    Prediction: Silva defeats Bonnar by KO in the first round.