Boise State University is and forever will be known as the little school that could for their upset of Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
Now the men's basketball program is starting to create a little magic for themselves, which started with a three-OT thriller to get them into the 2008 NCAA Tournament.
So can the little school from Potatoeville upset Louisville?
Everyone in the nation says no—but don't tell that to Reggie Larry, who just finished with a career-high 31 points in the win over New Mexico State in the WAC championship game and set a school record with 647 points this season...or Matt Nelson, who left Eastern Washington after making a trip to the Tournament as a Freshman...or Matt Bausher, the scrappy kid from Caldwell, Idaho, who couldn't get a scholarship anywhere out of high school.
The three seniors were all named to the WAC All-Tournament team last week, after rolling to three victories in three days. Two of those wins came against schools that had beat the Broncos twice during the regular season.
Throw fellow senior and three-point specialist Tyler Tiedeman into the mix and you have a team with four senior starters that is poised to do something no other Boise State squad has ever done:
Win an NCAA Tournament game.
Comparing the numbers, Boise State looks to have the advantage over the Cardinals in points per game (82 to 71.9), assists (17.9 to 14.8), field goal percentage (51 percent to 45 percent), and three-point shooting (40 percent to 34 percent).
Louisville, however, played in what is considered the top conference in the nation, facing such Top-25 opponents as Marquette, Georgetown, UConn, Pitt and Top 25 Purdue during non-confernce play.
Boise State's only Top-25 win came at home against a BYU squad that entered the top 25 after beating Louisville on a neutral site. The WAC was considered to be down this season, receiving only one tournament bid for the first time in five years.
Even though the numbers seem to favor Boise State, overall play obviously favors Louisville.
If Boise State does have an advantage, it's their three explosive seniors. Larry, Nelson and Tiedeman average 19.6, 15.6, and 14.0 PPG, respectively—compared to Louisville's top three (Padgett, Williams, and Clark) who average just 11.7, 11.2, and 10.7.
It can be said that Louisville is more balanced, but no one can take over a game like Reggie Larry for Boise State.
Larry has put the Broncos on his back all year, and not just in the paint. When he isn't exploding to the bucket for the slam, Larry can step back and hit the three. Larry also led the WAC in rebounding this season, no small feat for an undersized 6'6" forward.
When it comes to the top three players on both teams, I give the advantage to Boise State.
Overall, though, this is not the Broncos' game to win. The Broncos may have spent the last of their magic on their improbable WAC title run.
To their credit, Boise State isn't afraid of playing on the road. The Broncos went 12-3 away from home and 2-0 on neutral sites.
Louisville, though, is 9-2 in its last 11, with the only loses coming to Georgetown and Pitt, which are more impressive losses then BSU's last two against Siena and Utah State.
All told, Louisville and Rick Pitino are too experienced for this pesky team from Boise.
It could be that the football team's Fiesta Bowl success will hurt the basketball team here. Louisville now knows this school will come to play in any sport—and doesn't want be embarrassed like Oklahoma was.
My heart picks the Broncos, but my head says the Cardinals. Louisville by less than seven, in a game that will be closer than the experts think.
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