Charlotte Bobcats
The Charlotte Bobcats are the third-best team in the NBA this season against the spread, rewarding bettors who have backed them with a 36-24-1 record. Their 26-35 actual record belies the fact that they have only allowed 1.8 more points per game than they score, and their "Pythagorean record" is a much tidier 30-31.
"Pythagorean record " is a term coined by Bill James, the famous baseball statistician. It is a calculation of a team's expected wins based on their points scored and points allowed, a commonsensical approach of determining how lucky or unlucky a team has been in regards to its won/lost record.
The Bobcats have been very unlucky in their games won thus far, and while this is an unpleasant reality for Charlotte, it presents bettors with a rather nice value opportunity.
Luck tends to even out over the course of a season, and so it makes sense to believe the Bobcats will win more games in the remainder of the season, bringing their actual record closer to their Pythagorean record.
I feel that the Bobcats have improved significantly as a result of their acquisition of Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Vlad Radmanovic. I also like that D.J. Augustin continues to improve and that Gerald Wallace has returned to health.
The Bobcats are a much better team than their record right now, not just because they've been unlucky, but also because they have legitimately improved and matured as a team.
These facts lead me to believe that Charlotte may win a good deal more games down the stretch than expected and will continue to be a nice team to back with the spread.
However, I want to emphasize that it may be an even better idea to take the Bobcats on the moneyline.
Their record is due to adjust favorably and their talent level will continue to rise, so look for Charlotte to win straight up more often as the season comes to a close.
On a final note, be aware that Charlotte is an incredibly streaky team, either covering or failing to cover in large bunches over the past few months. The last time they did not win or lose at least two consecutive games against the spread was Dec. 13 of last year.
Having covered over their last four games, the Bobcats may be due for a few gambling losses, but don't get discouraged as there should be more winning streaks in their future.
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