I always thought this song by INXS said "We're better than Oasis." In fact, I imagine if INXS could do it all over, they would probably change their lyrics to such. Now this is no commentary on the state of Pop or which group is better—in fairness, both groups have a terribly negative affect on my cerebellum.
Anyways, since INXS couldn't man up and say it, I'm going to...
And that is why The Fantasy Baseball Generals posed the following question to myself as well as the other authors of the website: "Is A-Rod an unquestioned number one overall pick?"
I concluded that Alex Rodriguez is not only NOT the unquestioned number one overall pick, but, in fact, I wouldn't even take him with my second or third overall pick. Keep in mind, this does differ in a variety of leagues, but here is what I said at FBG:
Personally, I would go with (Jose) Reyes. The guy will single handedly push you to the top of the pack in steals, so much so, that the rest of the draft you can focus on the 'cheaper' and easier to acquire stats, like home runs.
While teams are scraping the bottom of the barrel to team one dimensional hitters Kaz Matsui and Michael Bourn, you will already be set and able to take chances on players with high ceilings. The fact that Reyes is still only 25 years old is enough evidence that he is a potential breakout candidate and could post career highs in every category.
Also, when you couple this with position eligibility and scarcity, I cannot think of a better player to draft. I would rank the top five as follows: Reyes, Wright, Howard, Rodriguez, and Rollins.
Another reason, which I will cover in this week's Fantasy Fridays (or last week's, however you want to look at it), is how deep third base is.
In a recent draft I performed in over the weekend—alright, missed—I managed to grab Troy Glaus off of free agents, not even having to use my waiver slot. While the difference between Rodriguez and Glaus is admittedly large, the difference between Reyes and Khalil Greene is even more substantial.
Let's see what the forecast systems say (average of Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, MINER and ZiPS courtesy of Fan Graphs):
Rodriguez: 40HR, 116 Runs, 124 RBIs, 17 Steals with a .296 batting average.
Greene: 21 HR, 71 Runs, 78 RBIs, 5 Steals with a .253 batting average.
Total: 61 HR, 187 Runs, 202 RBIs, 22 Steals with a .275 batting average.
Glaus: 24 HR, 73 Runs, 76 RBIs, 2 Steals with a .255 batting average.
Reyes: 13 HR, 116 Runs, 69 RBIs, 66 Steals with a .291 batting average.
Total: 37 HR, 189 Runs, 145 RBIs, 68 Steals with a .273 batting average.
While looking at these numbers may not sell you, Team Rodriguez now is required to make up 46 steals. If we look at 2007 statistics, we see that only five others racked up more then 46 steals, where as the deviation in home runs (24) saw 52 hitters approach that total.
Also, keep in mind that the projection systems anticipate Glaus to hit as if he was hurt AND for him to suffer another injury. I do not anticipate either scenario creeping up on him in 2008.
7 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Jarek Berga about 1 year ago
"While teams are scraping the bottom of the barrel to team one dimensional hitters Kaz Matsui..."
The irony isn't lost on me.
On a different note, good article, I agree that A-Rod isn't as clear cut a #1 as most think. BP has him usually around 4-5 in the Fantasy Forecase Manager, much like your top 5. In fact, I've not been able to find a projection where A-Rod is #1. Good piece.
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Jarek Berga about 1 year ago
With that said, I took A-Rod 1st in the BR draft, and I got stuck with Stephen Drew at SS. I took him based mostly on the going perception, and last season. At least I know it's A-Rod, and I can't go wrong there, but Reyes makes a lot of sense. I wouldn't have the steals issue I have now if I had taken him. Your point illustrated.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Jarek,
There is no problem taking ARod with the first pick. He is an outstanding player and is a safe bet. He won't hurt you anywhere. I simply see third base as a deep position.
That said, you can see where taking ARod and having Drew as your SS hurt your team. That is in middle in feild. While you have a nice player there (Wigginton), I wonder how your draft would have went with Reyes as the #1 pick.
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Dan Siegel about 1 year ago
As much as it pains me to say it, I hope I end up with Chase Utley as my first pick. Second basemen of his caliber are otherwise non-existent. Shortstop and third base have better depth.
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Brandon Heikoop about 1 year ago
Yea, I suppose I wouldn't hesitate to accept the argument that sees Utley bumping Rodriguez or Rollins from my top 5.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Brandon,
I found your column while doing a search for something else INXS-related.
FYI, Michael *does* sing "better than Oasis" in the chorus of 'Elegantly Wasted', and this is well documented in their official autobiography "Story To Story" (Page 253).
http://www.amazon.com/INXS-Story-Official-Autobiography/dp/0743284038
Michael recorded new background vocals for the song after a televised spat with Liam Gallagher at the Brit Awards, but no one knew until months after the record had already been released.
matthew.phillips@rogers.com
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Michael Webb about 1 year ago
I blocked ARod from my Yahoo draft, just because I hate rooting for Yankees. But, given his offensive potential and injury history, I don't think it makes sense to take anyone else #1.
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