I don't gamble...at least, I don't go through bookies and place bets. My friends and I may make small wagers before fights begin, sometimes adjusting them slightly if there is an obvious favorite. If I was a gambler, however, there's one fight on this card I couldn't resist.
Shane Carwin is an almost 200 point underdog (depending on the site you check) in this fight. I say that's quite a big number.
Gabriel Gonzaga is no slouch. He's a tough fighter. Credit where credit is due. He's won his last two fights in less time than it takes...well...less time than it takes Shane Carwin to win a fight. It's the two fights before that, the losses to Werdum and Couture that concern me. In particular, it's the loss to Couture.
It's not that Gonzaga lost to Randy, lots of people have lost to Randy. It's the way he was bullied in the clinch that raises my eyebrows. Randy had his way with Gabriel, taking him wherever he wanted, dirty boxing him to pieces. Couture is a Greco-Roman nightmare, we all know this, but Carwin has got wrestling credentials as well, not to mention the fact that he's the size of a small Clydesdale.
Barring a quick submission by the BJJ expert, I don't see Gonzaga winning this one. At least, I don't think it's so likely that he should be a 200 point favorite.
But hey, what do I know? I already told you I don't gamble.