When it comes to Jeremy Lin, the first word that always comes to mind is hype. He received an unprecedented amount of it during his rise with the New York Knicks and will garner a lot more in fantasy circles as he prepares to run the Houston Rockets offense.
One thing hype always does is ensure a player will get drafted way too high. Owners are worried they will miss out and end up taking somebody like Lin early to ensure they get him, which is why it's best to avoid the new Rockets star in 2012-13.
Even though the 24-year-old point guard showed off a lot of potential during his often incredible run with the Knicks last season, there are several factors working against him becoming the elite fantasy player he will likely be selected as on draft day.
Mainly, teams will be more prepared to stop him. When Lin broke onto the scene last February—and immediately became a terrific fantasy free-agent pickup —he surprised teams with his combination of quickness and shooting ability.
He averaged 21 points, eight assists and four rebounds while shooting 47 percent from the field during that first memorable month. Linsanity ensued, but his production began to dip after teams got a better grasp of what he brought to the table.
What will happen with Lin?
In March, his numbers fell across the board. He averaged 15 points, six assists and three rebounds and shot just 41 percent. It was a combination of his falling from an unsustainable high and opposing defenses doing more to stop him.
Another major issue is his lack of supporting cast. With the Knicks, Lin had Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and J.R. Smith among others to take attention away from him. That won't be the case with the Rockets.
The only other player that teams will worry about as much as Lin is Kevin Martin, but even he's coming off his worst season in seven years. Therefore, there will be a lot of attention focused on Lin from the moment he steps on the court.
Finally, it's important not to forget Lin is coming back from injury. He had knee surgery, which cut his breakout season short, and it won't be until he gets in real game action that fantasy owners find out if he still has the same explosiveness.
When you put all the factors together, there are just too many risks involved to use an early pick to acquire him. Early selections should be used on players you can count on for solid production and Lin doesn't fall in that category.
Ignore the hype and go in a different direction at point guard.