The Patriots are expected to rebound after losing to the Ravens as they hit the road to play the Buffalo Bills. After all they are one of the best teams in the NFL, right?
Here is an interesting thought about the Patriots: What if they are just not that good?
Sure Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but as a team they have some weaknesses. They have not been the same on offense since losing tight end Aaron Hernandez.
On defense they rank 24th overall against the pass and have had trouble holding leads this season.
The Bills match up well against the Patriots and beat them last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be able to beat the Patriots through the air, and the Bills have beefed up on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady.
When making my NFL picks this week, the Bills jumped off the sheet as a solid play for Week 4.
The Bills are 33-16-1 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and the Patriots have a losing record for a reason this year—they are overrated. The Bills are not intimidated by Bill Belichick and will hand the Patriots their third loss of the season.
In my upset alerts from Week 3, I posted a 5-0 record against the spread and straight up.
2012 NFL Pick Record: 10-5 ATS (10 outright winners)
James Brown is a B/R featured columnist and can be followed on Twitter. Feel free to contact James at email@example.com. He also is a contributor at Bookie Blitz, a sports picks website.