NFL Game Day Predictions Live Blog: Updates and Picks Against the Spread
Welcome to the NFL Game Day predictions live blog!
This live blog is designed to share last-minute picks on the NFL Week 3 schedule.
This blog will feature picks against the spread (ATS) with the betting spread and over/under totals for the busy NFL day.This will include upsets, blowouts, and locks!
It will also cover breaking news that may change the NFL odds and in-game action that could lead to profit on halftime selections.
Consider this blog a pregame betting preview on steroids with a red-zone appeal. So sit back and get ready for Game Day! The betting window is open and it's time to look at the best bets and breaking news for Week 3 in the NFL!
CJ Spiller is done for the day and so are the Bills, I will back the Browns in the second half with momentum from a big score before halftime.
The Vikings are doing everything right. That blocked field goal before the half will carry over in the second half as the Vikings win this game on the field.
The Titans are controlling the Lions offense and Chris Johnson is running like the CJ of old. Look for more of that in the second half as the Titans win big against the Lions.
Other potential plays at the half would be the Bengals and Dolphins, but that is it for now.
This is it for now, enjoy the second half. Time for me to take in football, wings, and a few cold ones. Good luck on all of your wagers!
The games are getting close to the half and then the second half lines will be opened up for betting.
The first game that stands out to me is the Vikings. They are winning early and they are doing it the right way. They have twice as many yards as the 49ers as I type this and Ponder is looking like Steve Young.
The other game is the Titans and the Lions. The Lions are without a punter and Jason Hanson is handling the punting duties, the Lions are now exposed!
The Bengals are abusing the Skins, and the Browns are hanging tight with the Bills, how will the game change without CJ Spiller?
The halftime lines and picks are coming up!
Looking around the scoreboard for potential second half plays--
The Bengals offense has outmatched the Redskins, if they can't match score-for score it could be a very long day.
The Titans scored on a music-city miracle look alike, and the Lions offense seems like it is out of sync. For you youngsters who have no idea what the music-city miracle is, just watch the video, you will be glad you did.
The Vikings are going toe-to-toe with the 49ers, if this keeps up and the Vikings can score they may be worth a small play in the second half.
In game injuries are important to know for betting on the second half and John Clayton is keeping us informed.
Trent Williams carted off to lockerroom. Nate Clements (leg) and Robert Geathers (ankle) injured for Bengals. Returns questionable
Of course his new ESPN spot is quickly becoming a classic! If you have not watched it yet, now is the time!
The NFL action is already up and running with the scoreboards lighting up.
The Bengals deep bomb to Green to score early made me wonder how long will it take for the Redskins to try out RG3 on defense?
The interception by Mark Sanchez has my Miami play looking good early, but even better it could mean a Tebow sighting!
The Saints scored easily which is no surprise but it will be interesting to see if their defense can do anything against the Chiefs.
Don't look now....here come the Vikings.
I will be back throughout the early games to comment on anything I see that will may help with the second half bets as well as my take on the late slate in the NFL.
Now I just have to figure out how to type when my hands are covered in buffalo-wing sauce...
Weather is also something to keep in mind as the weather at Sun-Life is...well...I don't think I can put any better than this.
Just wanna put this out there. The weather at Sun-Life stadium sucks.
— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) September 23, 2012
Sports Insights reports that the Jets are getting 78 percent of the betting action.
Are the Dolphins for real? I am not sold yet, but if they beat Rex Ryan and the Jets I would be thinking about it.
Every week if this blog still has a heartbeat (or if I still have a bankroll) I will post my early picks at 12:30 (ish) for the early games.
1:00 NFL picks
Total Over 46 Tampa Bay / Dallas
Proceed at your own risk and if you agree/disagree, let me hear it! More lat breaking info, stats, trends, up next!
Replacement Refs Play a Role
When making your NFL picks you may want to consider how the replacement refs are affecting the outcome of the NFL games this season.
That is a big number and the Vegas oddsmakers are adjusting accordingly. Since the opening lines were released early in the week many of the numbers are jumping higher and higher in an attempt to adjust.
As predicted the Chiefs and the Saints have the highest Over/Under at 53 in most sportsbooks.
How can anyone go with the Saints today?
The Chiefs are awful as well, but it looks like neither team will play defense so asking the Saints to cover nine points may be asking too much. And according to this stat, the Saints best player is having problems
Drew Brees having a rough go passing 15+ yds downfield, completing just 46% (last yr led NFL: 57.6%).
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 23, 2012
I won't touch the Chiefs either so for me, this is a perfect game to "pass" on. Nothing like a football pun to get the day started.
Early Upset: Titans +3.5 over Detroit
Detroit has yet to prove they can beat anyone yet the public is jumping on the bandwagon as 83 percent of the public is taking the Lions and that number just keeps going up.
This Lions team barely beat the Rams and have to be unmotivated to travel to Tennessee. It is not my "lock" for Week 3, but the Titans will get the Early Upset Tag.
Here is an interesting trend with the Lions. The Lions are 9-21-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. That shows how the Lions are easily distracted on the road.
When the final grades on this game are in, the Titans will get an "A+".
NFL betting angle of the day
Teams that play their first game at home after two road games to start the season are 21-43 against the spread.
Teams that fit that angle for today are the Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.
Everyone thinks they have the best bet for kickoff that will cash in easy, okay so let's hear it--What's your best bet for the day?
The most popular play on the board so far is the San Fransisco 49ers (-7 points) over the Minnesota Vikings. The latest consensus has over 74 percent of the people betting on the 49ers. This is where I use the "if it looks too good to be true" philosophy and I stay away!
My best bet for the day is the Oakland Raiders +3.5 and it looks like I am alone on this pick.
What you got?
The Chicago Bears did not make my cut in the 5 teams i put on upset alert, but for those that think the scrappy St. Louis Rams are worthy of a bet, here is some good news.
Just confirmed - Steven Jackson WILL play - after testing out groin on field - true gametime decision!— StaceyDales (@StaceyDales) September 23, 2012
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