Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

Bobby Brooks@BrooksBetsAnalyst IIISeptember 20, 2012

ORCHARD PARK, NY - SEPTEMBER 16:  Marcell Dareus #99 of the Buffalo Bills waits to enter the field against the Kansas City Chiefs  at Ralph Wilson Stadium on September 16, 2012 in Orchard Park, New York. Darues' brothe, Simeon Gilmore was killed earlier in the week.  (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)
Rick Stewart/Getty Images

The Buffalo Bills got off the snide in Week 2, but the same can't be said for the Cleveland Browns.  At the same time, the Browns are 2-0 against the spread.  Where does the value lie in this matchup?  Let's take a closer look at why I like the road team.



Before Week 2, the Bills were favored by three over the Browns.  After the weekend, it opened at the same number.  The surprising thing is we've seen a move off a key number mid-week.  This is enough for me to add it to the card.  At -2.5, the Bills become a no-brainer for Week 3 (odds from SBRforum).

The line move could be a clear sign that sharp money isn't sold on the Bills yet.  Is one hyped-up home-opener win enough to justify them as field-goal favorites on the road?  I would say no, but there are other reasons to support the pick.


Two Teams Searching for an Identity

In Week 1, Brandon Weeden looked like he belongs in the Arena League, while Trent Richardson seemed rusty coming off a knee operation. The following week, both looked like Pro Bowlers.

The same can be said about the Bills.  They got scraped off the mat in New York, only to turn around and paste the Chiefs into the cement.

Week 3 should tell us a lot more about the direction of both teams going forward.


Pressure, Pressure, Pressure

When it comes to evaluating Weeden, the truth probably lies somewhere between the first two games.  If you line him up against a suspect secondary and give him time to throw, he's going to make some completions.  Put him against a relentless D-line and an aggressive secondary and he'll fall back to earth.

The Bills' defense resembles more of the latter.

I said last week that the play of their D-line is going to determine a lot on the scoreboard this year, and they stepped up huge and harassed Matt Cassel for most of the day.  They were particularly impressive on third and long.

The Browns have a couple nice pieces on their O-line in Joe Thomas and Alex Mack, but both guards are shaky and they put a lot on the shoulders of second-round pick Mitchell Schwartz.

I expect some rookie mistakes from Weeden on Sunday because Stephon Gilmore and Aaron Williams are a much bigger challenge than what the Bengals' secondary offered. The Browns would be wise to have a run-first approach and hope Richardson can have another great performance.


C.J. Spiller + Ryan Fitzpatrick = What?

I had questions about whether or not Spiller could maintain his Week 1 performance and hold up enough in pass protection, but he answered the bell with flying colors.  Ryan Fitzpatrick wasn't asked to do a lot, which is ideal considering how maddeningly inconsistent he can be.

I don't expect the same dominating performance as Week 2 because this isn't an amped-up home-opener, but the Browns' defense isn't going to strike fear in anybody without Joe Haden and Phil Taylor.

Yes, they've gotten some sacks from unlikely places, D'Qwell Jackson is flying all over the field, and they've been quasi-competitive in back to back games, but banking on that to happen week in, week out is asking a lot.

Andy Dalton made it look quite easy in the air and the final score was much closer than what took place on the field.


Fool's Gold?

The primary reason I'm not buying into the Browns is their play in key situations.  When a drive has been on the line, or they are in the red zone on either side of the ball, they have failed more times than not.

Until they begin to improve on third down and in the red zone, I'll continue to fade the Browns if the point spread is right.


Bottom Line

The Browns are outmatched on both sides of the ball, which means winning by three shouldn't be too much to ask from the Bills.  This is a big test for Buffalo, and we'll find out a lot about their character and ability to win games they should emerge victorious in.  If they come up short in this spot, it could be a long, painful season the rest of the way.

Pick: BUF -2.5.


This article is from the Free NFL Predictions blog. For more picks and analysis, visit www.brooksbets.com, and follow Bobby Brooks on Twitter the entire football season for all things NFL betting.