So I’ve always had a bit of a temper. I won’t go into the sordid details (I did, but it was pathetic, so I deleted it). Let’s just say that when things go wrong for my favorite teams, I don’t take it particularly well.
Now that I’m 33 with a wife and two kids, I’ve settled down from the furious heydays of my youth. No more door punching (far less damaging than wall punching) or toy kicking (learned that one the hard way—stuffed animals sometimes have hard insides that can hurt your toes and put little dents in walls).
But there is one bad habit I have yet to break: the remote throw.
I’m sure you’ve been there with me before. You’re watching a game. It’s getting toward crunch time. And then something horrible happens. Either your team screws something up or the other team just does something awesome, but the result is the same: Before you even know you’re doing it, the remote goes flying across the room.
If you’re lucky, the remote will harmlessly land in a couch cushion or something soft. The dog might give you a weird look, but the damage will be minimal. But other times that effer crashes against the floor or the wall and goes flying into a thousand pieces.
(Two interjections here before I get to the point of all this: 1. Don’t ever do the remote throw at somebody else’s house; it’s terribly bad form. I recommend the hat throw as a suitable replacement. 2. All the credit in the world to DirecTV for their remote construction. I’ve destroyed that thing at least a half dozen times, and it keeps going back together. Really, I don’t know how they do it. It’s amazing.)
So the last time I busted my remote was after watching Arizona (my alma mater) lose to Arizona State (scumbag rivals) in college basketball, and I was wondering how many times I’ve performed the same surgery and what bad things in sports have served as the most frequent catalysts for destruction.
In basketball, it can be any variety of things, usually a turnover leading to a fast break or a killer three by the other team.
In football, it’s usually a turnover or your QB taking a really stupid sack on a game-tying drive.
In baseball, it’s the blown save.
I think of all these, the blown save kills me the most, particularly when it’s a walk-off by the other team. You’ve got the lead and you’re feeling fine. Then BAM, just like that, you’ve lost. It sucks.
It should be so easy. Three outs. Three freaking outs. 1-2-3. That’s it. That’s all it takes.
And yet last season there were 638 charged blown saves by 237 different pitchers. Now not all of those were game ending, or even necessarily resulted in losses. Not all of them were by closers. But 638 times last year a pitcher entered the game in a save situation and screwed it up.
Colorado’s Manny Corpas and Florida’s Kevin Gregg (now with Chicago) led the way with nine each. St. Louis and Seattle fans suffered the most with 31 charged blown saves by each team’s bullpens.
That’s a lot of broken remotes.
And so it is with that backdrop I bring you the list of the best 30 closers in baseball. These guys may sit on their asses for 95 percent of the season, but for the five percent of the time they’re in the game, they’re the most important player on the field.
(Note: When I refer to 2008 closers, that’s just guys who had 10 or more saves in 2008.)
Actually, before I get to the individual closers, there are some interesting battles to talk about.
Roy Corcoran/Mark Lowe/Miguel Batista/ David Aardsma/Tyler Walker/Randy Messenger, Mariners
In the words of Clay Davis (because I’ve been watching a lot of The Wire lately), sheeeeeeeeeeaattt. With last year’s closer, Brandon Morrow, headed to the rotation, the Mariners’ closer competition is a complete and total mess. The “contenders:”
Corcoran: 6-2 in 50 games, 3.22 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 39 K, 36 BB, 3 Sv
Lowe: 1-5 in 57 games, 5.37 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 55 K, 34 BB, 1 Sv
Batista: 4-14 in 44 games (20 starts), 6.26 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 72 K, 76 BB, 1 Sv
Aardsma: 4-2 in 47 games with Boston, 5.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 49 K, 33 BB, 0 Sv
Walker: 5-8 in 65 games with San Francisco, 4.56 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 21 BB, 0 Sv
Messenger: 0-0 in 13 games, 3.55 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 7 K, 5 BB, 1 Sv
See anybody there you’d like as your team’s closer?
Chris Perez/Jason Motte, Cardinals
Whereas the Mariners have a problem of no qualified candidates, the Cardinals have two qualified, if inexperienced, options to take the reins from longtime closer Jason Isringhausen. Perez is the odds-on favorite to win the job. He was a dominant closer at the University of Miami. He was a dominant closer in the minors. And he showed in flashes last season that he had the stuff to be a dominant closer in the Majors.
Motte, however, has the ability to make this interesting. In 12 games last year, Motte finished with a 0.82 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. He struck out 16 in 11 innings with only three walks. In 66 innings at AAA Memphis last year, Motte struck out 110 to only 26 walks.
At 26 years old, Motte is the older of the two (Perez won’t turn 24 until July), so he may be better prepared for a full-time gig as the Cardinals’ closer. Plus he looks an insane person who took too much LSD. That’s always fun.
Brad Ziegler/Joey Devine, A’s
It took a long time for Ziegler to finally earn his shot as a 28-year-old rookie, but he made the most of it with 11 saves, a 1.06 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP in nearly 60 innings. He will face some stiff competition for the closer’s role from Devine, a 25-year-old who finished last season with a filthy 0.59 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 42 appearances.
Devine has the edge in power, striking out better than a hitter per inning (49 in 45+) while Ziegler struck out just 30 in 59+. That, plus Ziegler’s sidearm/submarine delivery, might make Ziegler the best bet for the eighth and Devine for the ninth. Either way, the Oakland pen will be a force to be reckoned with in the AL West this season.
All right, now to the guys I feel reasonably sure will start the season as their team’s primary closer.
27. Joel Hanrahan, Nationals
I did some checking, and there is no truth to the rumors Hanrahan is actually a 40-year-old bartender named Paco Gomez. So relax, Nats fans, everything will be OK. At least until Elijah Dukes remembers to knock up another foster child at his grandma’s house.
All kidding aside, Hanrahan had some decent numbers last season, going 6-3 with nine saves in 69 appearances (84+ innings) with a 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts to 42 walks. If you find yourself desperate for some saves for your fantasy team, chances are Hanrahan will still be available on your waiver wire.
26. Frank Francisco, Rangers
Don’t know about Francisco? Here’s a description from MLB.com: “Frank Francisco, who has spent the past 11 Opening Days somewhere in the Minor Leagues, who has made to make a steep climb out of both legal and injury purgatory, and who has far more experience as chess master of the Rangers clubhouse than he does as a closer, has the job.”
It’s not all that bad, really. Francisco did fairly well last season once CJ Wilson went down. In nine September appearances, Francisco did not allow a single earned run (one unearned), saving seven games with 14 strikeouts to just four walks and only three hits allowed. Plus, he throws a great chair.
25. Brandon Lyon, Tigers
Detroit fans should hope Lyon’s status as expected closer is just a meaningless Spring Training depth chart deal and that Fernando Rodney can finally ascend to the role. Playing in a much weaker division last year in Arizona, Lyon still finished with a 4.7 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. And now he’s going to pitch in the AL Central and all of a sudden not suck? Why?
24. Matt Lindstrom, Marlins
After trading away Kevin Gregg to the Cubs, the job of Marlins closer falls to Lindstrom, who saved five games last year while posting a 3.14 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. Lindstrom’s major asset: a fastball that averages around 95 mph and has been know to hit triple digits now and then.
Then again, a lot of guys with cannons have come and gone. Being a closer is as much about the mentality of dominance as it is about stuff. It remains to be seen whether Lindstrom can handle that stress over the long term.
23. Mike Gonzalez, Braves
Atlanta keeps waiting for the Mike Gonzalez of 2006 to show up, but all they’ve gotten so far are 16 saves in 50+ innings broken up over two seasons. Gonzalez’ ERA jumped to 4.28 last year, and his six homers allowed in 36 games is an alarming rate of one every six appearances (more on that stat in a bit). Gonzalez will be 31 this season, so time is running short for him to regain his form.
22. George Sherrill, Orioles
Sherrill started out like gangbusters last season (17 saves in the team’s first 43 games), but fell off severely over the season’s final months (as did the entire team, going 7-30 over the final month and a half). Sherrill’s final numbers: 31 saves in 37 chances, 4.73 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 33 walks to just 58 strikeouts in 53+ innings. With the younger and better Chris Ray back and pitching without pain, don’t expect Sherrill to hold onto this job for long.
21. Troy Percival, Rays
It’s tough to pick on Percival, whose remarkable comeback has been amazing to watch, but facts are facts: Percy is no longer an elite closer. His 4.53 ERA was terrible. His 1.24 WHIP was better than terrible, but not stellar by any means. He doesn’t strike out people anymore (38) and gives up way too many homers (nine).
In other words, he’s becoming Jason Isringhausen, who just happens to be in Rays camp trying to stick around another few years. This could turn out to be the downfall of the Tampa run at a second consecutive AL pennant.
20. Francisco Cordero, Reds
Cordero converted 34 of 40 save chances last season with a 3.33 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers are just OK, which is a good way to describe Cordero as a closer at this stage of his career: just OK.
One thing to watch for is the walks. Cordero gave out 38 of them last season, more than double his total from the previous season (18 as an All-Star with the Brewers). There may not be a statistical tie between overall walks and total blown saves, but there is most certainly a correlation between walks by closers and heart palpitations by managers and fans.
19. Heath Bell, Padres
For the first time in long time, Trevor Hoffman doesn’t enter the season as the Padres closer. Instead, with Hoffman off to Milwaukee, that role will fall to Heath Bell. Though not by any means a household name, Bell does bring a decent résumé to the role. In 74 appearances last year, Bell finished with a 3.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 71 strikeouts, and 28 walks. In 81 appearances in 2007, Bell posted a 2.02 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, 102 strikeouts, and 30 walks.
Chances are he won’t get a whole lot of save opportunities (because the Padres are going to suck), but he seems primed to be able to take advantage of those that do come his way.
18. Trevor Hoffman, Brewers
Hoffman may be old (41), but his numbers last season in San Diego were still very respectable: 30 of 34 opportunities converted, 3.77 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP (eighth best among all closers last year).
One concern: Hoffman gave up eight homers in 48 games. In a stat I decided to make up, that’s a homer for every six appearances. Only three closers last year were worse: Brandon Morrow (Seattle, 4.50), Eric Gagne (Milwaukee, 4.55), and Troy Percival (Tampa, 5.56). The average among all closers in 2008 was one homer for every 10.63 appearances.
17. Huston Street, Rockies
Who the hell knows what to make of Street? As a 21-year-old in 2005, he won the Rookie of the Year award with 23 saves, a 1.73 ERA, and 1.01 WHIP. The next year, he saved 39, and though the ERA was up to 3.31, the WHIP stayed extraordinary at 1.09.
In 2007, his numbers were great (2.88 ERA, 0.94 ERA), but injuries held him to just 48 games and 17 saves. And then last year, his ERA “spiked” to 3.73 ERA, he blew seven saves out of 25 chances (a very poor 72 percent conversion rate), and he eventually lost his job to Brad Ziegler.
From phenom to star to injured star to lost his job and traded away. And he’s still only 25.
It’s always a question how guys will react to pitching in Denver for the first time, but Street is too good and too young to give up on him completely.
16. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
Broxton has a few things going for him. His 3.13 ERA wasn’t terrible. His 1.17 WHIP was pretty good. His two homers allowed in 69 innings is downright outstanding. The only problem? He blew eight of 22 save attempts (an abysmal 63.6 percent conversion rate). Some guys, like San Francisco’s Brian Wilson, have bad numbers but get the job done. Broxton had good numbers but didn’t, or at least not often enough.
Still, though, at only 24 (25 this June), Broxton has a world of potential. As long as he stays healthy, he should be in for the best season of his short career.
15. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
Qualls is a weird mix of guy who has been around forever but is still a viable sleeper candidate as a closer. He’s never had more saves in a season than last year’s nine, but will have a chance to more than triple (quadruple?) that total closing for a staff that includes Brandon Webb and Dan Haren (and not a bad 3-4-5 with Doug Davis, Jon Garland, and Max Scherzer).
Qualls brings the requisite numbers with a 2.81 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and the consistency of having pitched in between 77 and 81 games for four consecutive years (with an ERA that’s never crossed upwards of 3.76).
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
As I mentioned earlier, Wilson gets the job done (41 saves in 47 chances), but his ancillary numbers suck: 4.62 ERA (30th among all closers in 2008) and 1.45 WHIP (28th). One thing working in Wilson’s favor is that he’s still relatively young (turns 27 in two weeks) and has a history of better success (2.28 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 24 games in 2007). He’s one of those guys you really want to watch carefully this spring.
13. Jose Valverde, Astros
If you like your closers dancing on the line of slightly crazy, then Valverde is your man. His overall numbers were just fine: 44 saves out of 53 opportunities (86.3 percent conversion), 3.38 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP with 83 strikeouts in 72 innings.
But those numbers don’t tell the whole story: Valverde is about up-and-down as it gets. Just check out his month-by-month ERAs last season: 6.92, 1.20, 5.11, 6.75, 0.64, 0.93. That’s great if he’s on. But when he’s not, you’re screwed.
12. Matt Capps, Pirates
Capps had five blown saves last year, but they all came between June 10 and July 1. Then his persisting shoulder injury forced him to the DL until Aug. 24. Before June 10, Capps had 15 saves in 15 opportunities with a 2.12 ERA, .229 batting average against, 19 strikeouts, and only three walks. After he came back, Capps pitched in 12 games. In those, he had a 2.70 ERA with a .184 batting average against, 10 strikeouts, and no walks.
And he doesn’t turn 26 until September.
11. B.J. Ryan, Blue Jays
Ryan has been struggling with his command so far in Spring Training, so there is a bit of a concern here. The fact his starting staff consists of Roy Halladay and four guys who range from “I guess he’s OK” (Jesse Litsch) to “how the hell did this guy get out of AA?” (Scott Richmond) doesn’t bode particularly well either.
But Ryan did manage an 89 percent conversion rate last year with a 2.95 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. And that was in year one after Tommy John surgery. Year two is almost always better.
10. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
If Marmol played in Boston, the word wicked would be used more times than at any time since Pedro’s heyday. But since he doesn’t, we’ll just say he has the potential to be really, really good.
Last season as a part-time fill-in for Kerry Wood, Marmol finished with seven saves, a 2.68 ERA, and 0.93 ERA. There are some minor signs of worry, like the 10 homers allowed and 41 walks issued. Then again, when your closer gives up more walks than hits (40), you know he has some great movement on his pitches.
I have no doubt Marmol will at times lose command and blow some agonizing games, but his overall performance should be more than sufficient for the Cubs to compete and likely win the NL Central.
9. Kerry Wood, Indians
Wood is a difficult guy to judge entering his first season in the AL. On the one hand, he was no doubt one of the elite closers last year, converting 34 of 40 save opportunities with a 3.26 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 84 strikeouts in 66+ innings pitched. On the other hand, he’s got an injury history like a gang member’s rap sheet and is moving from the NL Central to the AL Central, which, in keeping with the metaphor, is like moving from Beverly Hills to Compton.
What are the odds he doesn’t get injured and/or have his ERA jump by a run this year? Twenty percent? Thirty?
8. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
It’s weird seeing a 6'3", 270-lb. closer with just 38 strikeouts to his name (in 61+ innings), but that’s Bobby Jenks. He doesn’t blow people away, but he gets the job done: 30 of 34 save opportunities converted, 2.63 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. And that was no fluke. He had 40 saves with a 2.77 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 2007. You might want to downgrade him a tad because of his starting staff (Bartolo Colon?), but you can still count on him for 30+ saves and very few killer blow-ups.
7. Brian Fuentes, Angels
Hoping that nobody from any of my fantasy leagues reads this, Fuentes is my pick as 2009's breakout closer. Not only does he have the stuff (2.73 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 30 of 34 save chances converted, 82 strikeouts in 62+ innings), but he’s going to the team that provided their closer an amazing 69 chances for saves last season. If Fuentes had his same 88 percent conversion rating on 69 save chances, he’d have 61 this season. Chances are that probably won’t happen, but 50+ is certainly within reach.
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
It’s hard to argue with 62 saves, but that was as much a byproduct of his enormous number of chances (18 more than the next closest guy) as it was his overpowering stuff. His 2.24 ERA was really good (sixth best among closers in 2008), but his 1.29 WHIP was downright pedestrian for a closer (24th). Now pitching in a much (MUCH) tougher division, expect to see a drastic fall from 62. Draft accordingly.
5. Joe Nathan, Twins
Nathan was stellar again last season, converting 39 of 45 opportunities with a 1.33 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He only gave up 10 earned runs in 68 appearances, striking out 74. The thing that drives Nathan up this list is his remarkable consistency. He’s had more than 35 saves all five of his seasons in Minnesota, only once going above a 2.00 ERA (2.90 in 2005) and only once going above a 1.00 WHIP (1.02 in 2007).
After pulling out of the World Baseball Classic, Twins fans are understandably nervous about Nathan’s health. He didn’t report any discomfort while pitching a bullpen session on Tuesday, so that’s a good sign.
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
With a menacing stare, Paps might be the last guy you would want to face with your life on the line. He did blow five saves last season in 46 opportunities (89 percent conversion rate), but he was one of only four guys last season to carry a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and 85 percent-plus conversion rate. The others: Mariano Rivera, Joakim Soria, and Joe Nathan.
3. Joakim Soria, Royals
If this dude played on a legit team, he’d be an absolute superstar. But a 93 percent conversion rate (42 of 45) with a 1.6 ERA and 0.86 WHIP don’t lie. This kid (won’t turn 25 until May) is already one of the best in the game. And if the Royals’ starting pitching continues to improve as expected, Soria could be in for a 50+ save season. No joke.
2. Brad Lidge, Phillies
There was one and only one guy with 10 or more saves in 2008 who didn’t blow a single chance: this one. He converted all 41 of his chances with a 1.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts in just 69+ innings pitched. For a guy whose career was nearly derailed by some huge homers allowed (thanks to Albert Pujols), Lidge was also able to keep the ball in the park, allowing just two homers in 72 appearances. Simply put, Lidge was perfect for Philadelphia last season.
It might be a bit much to expect a second consecutive perfect season, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be anything less than one of the top two or three closers in the game again in 2009.
1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
The dude has been great for so long, you want to put somebody else at the top of the list just to change things up. But Rivera had a 97.5 percent conversion rate last season, finishing with 39 saves out of 40 opportunities. He had a 0.67 WHIP and 1.4 ERA. He walked six in 70.2 innings. Six! It just doesn’t get any better than that.
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