Nope, not really.
Do I still think he'll demolish Bonnar in the Octagon?
With UFC 153 falling apart this week, after both Jose Aldo and Quinton Jackson pulled out of their fights, Silva basically saved the event by agreeing to fight Bonnar. Props go to him for putting on the "Company Man" t-shirt and bailing Dana White out of a disaster, even if the three-round fight offers all risk and no reward for Silva.
Well, risk if he loses, that is. And that seems pretty darn unlikely.
Bonnar is 14-7 in his career and has won his last three bouts, though, his last two have come as decisions. While he was a fun brawler to watch in his prime, he's not in his prime any longer, and if he tries to simply mash away at the Spider, he'll find himself in a precarious situation rather quickly.
Think of Bonnar as a 16-seed in the NCAA tournament and Silva is a one-seed. Oh, and this is a scrimmage with nothing technically on the line. Well, except for Silva's undefeated UFC record and reputation as arguably the greatest UFC fighter ever, that is.
There is always the possibility that Bonnar will catch Silva and pull off a crazy upset. In the Octagon, anything can happen. But that's the only way he can beat Silva.
Does he have an advantage standing up?
Does he have an advantage on the mat?
Is he the more technically savvy fighter?
Not even close.
Is Silva capable of still winning the fight even if it devolves into a straight brawl?
Yes, but it won't.
I understand the pickle the UFC was in and why they scheduled this fight. I praise Silva for being game, even if I think he's pretty crazy to risk so much with absolutely nothing to gain except a paycheck and some kind words from White.
But I don't think this will be a very good fight. I think Silva will win this one fairly easily. He should, at least—in the UFC, you never know.
But if you ever wanted a safe bet, well, put the mortgage on Silva over Bonnar.
Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets always have a backup long snapper.