It's the greatest day of the year, but for some, it could be the worst. Let's find out which "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) are finally about to hit the dance floor and which will be taking their mom's car home alone when the clock strikes seven.
Last four in: Arizona, Villanova, Dayton**, Mississippi*
First four out: UMass, Illinois State, Oregon, Southern Illinois
Next four out: Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, VCU
*Mississippi will drop from the field if Georgia or Illinois receives an auto bid
**Dayton will drop from the field if Georgia AND Illinois receive auto bids
Big East
Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (3 seed), Louisville (3 seed), Pittsburgh (4 seed), UConn (4 seed), Notre Dame (6 seed), Marquette (7 seed), West Virginia (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Villanova (12 seed)
Villanova (20-12, RPI: 51, SOS: 48) has five wins against teams headed to the NCAA Tournament. They were over George Mason, at Temple, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and UConn. They also beat Syracuse away from home twice, including a convincing victory in a must-win first round game in the Big East Tournament.
In addition, 'Nova lost games at Georgetown and on a neutral court versus NC State on controversial calls. That fact should also be considered.
Atlantic 10
Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed), Temple (10 seed)
Wallflowers: Saint Joseph's (10 seed), Dayton (12 seed), UMass (1st out)
Still doubting the credentials of St. Joe's and Temple? You have no choice on the Owls; they're in with the automatic bid. The Hawks, meanwhile, have done more than enough to earn an at-large bid. How's two wins in eight days over top 10 Xavier?
The Philly school is 5-6 versus the top 50 and 8-8 in games against the top 100. Not too many bubbles have that many solid wins without a greater number of losses.
Saint Joseph's also swept UMass, won at Temple and crushed Villanova.
UMass is my first team out due to only one win (at Dayton) over a possible NCAA Tournament team. Victories over Syracuse and Rhode Island decreased in value as the season wore on. 1-5 versus the top 50 won't be good enough to make, especially with three losses to sub 100 teams.
Dayton didn't do itself any favors by falling to Xavier Thursday, but a loss to the A-10 regular season champs didn't hurt the Flyers' already strong RPI too much (they dropped from 29 to 32), and with victories at Louisville and at home against Pitt, combined with winning four of its last five, Dayton remains in my field. They also beat Temple, St. Joe's, American and Coppin State, all of which will be dancing. However, the injury to star Chris Wright might cost UD a bid today.
ACC
Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (5 seed), Miami (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (6th out)
I don't see how Virginia Tech's profile warrants a bid, no matter what its head coach may say. Yes, the Hokies played well against UNC, but one game doesn't make a season, especially if it's a loss.
VA Tech is 19-13 with an RPI of 53, a SOS of 38 and a 1-7 record vs. the top 50. Let's compare that to another team that shall remain nameless for the next sentence. This other team was also 19-13 with a similar RPI of 55, a much better SOS of 9 and a better 3-8 record vs. the top 50. That's right, Syracuse. There are a few teams that I have left out of my field that if they do make it, I won't have such a huge problem with. But if Virginia Tech gets a bid today, it would be inexcusable.
Pac-10
Dancing with a Hottie: UCLA (1 seed), Stanford (3 seed), Washington State (4 seed), USC (7 seed)
Wallflowers: Arizona (11 seed), Oregon (3rd out), Arizona State (5th out)
Considering Arizona's tremendous record when it is at full strength with Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise (who have both now returned from injury), I have the Wildcats as one of my last four teams in. Arizona has beaten NCAA Tourney teams George Mason, Temple, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Connecticut. The RPI is still solid at 38 and the Wildcats have the second best strength of schedule in the nation.
Arizona State lost to USC on a controversial over-the-back call, which may garner them some sympathy on Selection Sunday. However, if the Sun Devils don't get in, they can't blame just the refs.
ASU finished the season 5-10 and its RPI has dropped to 83. Since 1999, the lowest RPI to earn an at large was No. 70 Air Force in 2004.
No matter what people say about Arizona State's five top 50 wins (six teams missed the tournament with five top 50 wins last year), ASU is in trouble.
Oregon won its final three games of the regular season, but it had to considering the Ducks went 3-8 before that. That meant Oregon needed to beat Washington State in the Pac-10 quarters and the Ducks couldn't do it.
They won four games against the top 50 but they also lost nine of those top-flight contests. I think the main argument come Selection Sunday is going to be between supporters of the Pac 10 and those who back the A-10 and other mid majors.
Teams on the west coast had a ton of good wins, but they also had a great deal more opportunities to pick up those victories than teams in other conferences.
Which is better, Dayton's 4-4 record vs. the top 50 or Oregon's 4-9? I'd say Dayton's.
Big 12
Dancing with a Hottie: Texas (2 seed), Kansas (2 seed), Oklahoma (6 seed), Texas A&M (9 seed), Kansas State (10 seed)
Wallflowers: Baylor (12 seed)
Baylor is barely in after it became the first five seed in Big 12 Tournament history to lose a first round game to a 12 seed (Colorado in double OT). However, that was the Bears' first sub 100 loss of the year, which is far less than most bubbles.
Baylor has wins over Notre Dame, Winthrop, Mississippi Valley State, Texas A&M and Kansas State, all in the tournament.
SEC
Dancing with a Hottie: Tennessee (1 seed), Vanderbilt (5 seed), Arkansas (7 seed), Mississippi State (10 seed)
Wallflowers: Kentucky (11 seed), Mississippi (12 seed)
Arkansas is locked up with its win over Tennessee in the SEC semis and bubble teams are hoping the Hogs can hold off Georgia today to claim the automatic bid.
Yikes, Kentucky. An overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC quarters has Wildcat fans biting their nails again. The 57 RPI is not good but the 11-3 finish is. That run featured wins over Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss, and with so many other bubble teams going down in flames earlier in the week, Kentucky should be safe.
Mississippi is my last team in. I'll say it again, Ole Miss is one of only 17 teams in the country with at least five top 50 wins and a winning record against the top 50. The Rebels have wins over the following NCAA Tournament teams: Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Winthrop, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas. What other bubble teams have seven wins like that? Mississippi may be hurt by its six losses to sub 100 teams, but none of those teams had RPIs below 172, and one of them is Georgia, who may wind up winning the SEC Tournament.
Big Ten
Dancing with a Hottie: Wisconsin (2 seed), Michigan State (4 seed), Purdue (5 seed), Indiana (6 seed)
Wallflowers: Ohio State (7th out)
Ohio State can't be in. Not with a 2-10 record versus the top 50 and both of those wins came at home. The best thing they did away from Columbus was an NIT Tipoff win over Syracuse at the Garden back in November. The Buckeyes' best true road win was at Cleveland State.
Other At-Large Candidates
Dancing with a Hottie: Memphis (1 seed), Drake (5 seed), Butler (6 seed), BYU (7 seed), Gonzaga (8 seed), St. Mary's (8 seed), Kent State (8 seed), UNLV (8 seed), Davidson (11 seed), Western Kentucky (11 seed)
Dancing with a Butterface: South Alabama (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Illinois State (2nd out), Southern Illinois (4th out), VCU (8th out), Creighton (9th out)
South Alabama has a win over Miss State and two over Western Kentucky. That's why they're in the field and Illinois State and VCU are not. ISU and VCU have ZERO wins over teams that will be in the Tournament. It will be a travesty if they make it in over teams like Ole Miss and Dayton, who have beaten several top 50 teams. If Illinois State and Virginia Commonwealth didn't have any bad losses, they could be excused for not having any great wins, but when you lose to Hampton, James Madison and Old Dominion (VCU) or to Eastern Michigan, Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Bradley (ISU), you better have some big wins to counterbalance those losses. Dayton, Ole Miss and Villanova do, Illinois State and VCU do not.
13 seeds: Oral Roberts, Siena, George Mason, Cornell
14 seeds: Cal State Fullerton, Belmont, Austin Peay, Boise State
15 seeds: American, UMBC, San Diego, Portland State
16 seeds: Winthrop, Texas Arlington or Northwestern State, Mt. St. Mary's
Play in game: Mississippi Valley State versus Coppin State
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