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Arkansas is locked up with its win over Tennessee in the SEC semis and bubble teams are hoping the Hogs can hold off Georgia today to claim the automatic bid.
Yikes, Kentucky. An overtime loss to Georgia in the SEC quarters has Wildcat fans biting their nails again. The 57 RPI is not good but the 11-3 finish is. That run featured wins over Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss, and with so many other bubble teams going down in flames earlier in the week, Kentucky should be safe.
Mississippi is my last team in. I'll say it again, Ole Miss is one of only 17 teams in the country with at least five top 50 wins and a winning record against the top 50. The Rebels have wins over the following NCAA Tournament teams: Mississippi Valley State, South Alabama, Winthrop, Clemson, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas. What other bubble teams have seven wins like that? Mississippi may be hurt by its six losses to sub 100 teams, but none of those teams had RPIs below 172, and one of them is Georgia, who may wind up winning the SEC Tournament.
Big Ten
Dancing with a Hottie: Wisconsin (2 seed), Michigan State (4 seed), Purdue (5 seed), Indiana (6 seed)
Wallflowers: Ohio State (7th out)
Ohio State can't be in. Not with a 2-10 record versus the top 50 and both of those wins came at home. The best thing they did away from Columbus was an NIT Tipoff win over Syracuse at the Garden back in November. The Buckeyes' best true road win was at Cleveland State.
Other At-Large Candidates
Dancing with a Hottie: Memphis (1 seed), Drake (5 seed), Butler (6 seed), BYU (7 seed), Gonzaga (8 seed), St. Mary's (8 seed), Kent State (8 seed), UNLV (8 seed), Davidson (11 seed), Western Kentucky (11 seed)
Dancing with a Butterface: South Alabama (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Illinois State (2nd out), Southern Illinois (4th out), VCU (8th out), Creighton (9th out)
South Alabama has a win over Miss State and two over Western Kentucky. That's why they're in the field and Illinois State and VCU are not. ISU and VCU have ZERO wins over teams that will be in the Tournament. It will be a travesty if they make it in over teams like Ole Miss and Dayton, who have beaten several top 50 teams. If Illinois State and Virginia Commonwealth didn't have any bad losses, they could be excused for not having any great wins, but when you lose to Hampton, James Madison and Old Dominion (VCU) or to Eastern Michigan, Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Bradley (ISU), you better have some big wins to counterbalance those losses. Dayton, Ole Miss and Villanova do, Illinois State and VCU do not.
13 seeds: Oral Roberts, Siena, George Mason, Cornell
14 seeds: Cal State Fullerton, Belmont, Austin Peay, Boise State
15 seeds: American, UMBC, San Diego, Portland State
16 seeds: Winthrop, Texas Arlington or Northwestern State, Mt. St. Mary's
Play in game: Mississippi Valley State versus Coppin State
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