It's the greatest day of the year, but for some, it could be the worst. Let's find out which "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) are finally about to hit the dance floor and which will be taking their mom's car home alone when the clock strikes seven.
Last four in: Arizona, Villanova, Dayton**, Mississippi*
First four out: UMass, Illinois State, Oregon, Southern Illinois
Next four out: Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, VCU
*Mississippi will drop from the field if Georgia or Illinois receives an auto bid
**Dayton will drop from the field if Georgia AND Illinois receive auto bids
Big East
Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (3 seed), Louisville (3 seed), Pittsburgh (4 seed), UConn (4 seed), Notre Dame (6 seed), Marquette (7 seed), West Virginia (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Villanova (12 seed)
Villanova (20-12, RPI: 51, SOS: 48) has five wins against teams headed to the NCAA Tournament. They were over George Mason, at Temple, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and UConn. They also beat Syracuse away from home twice, including a convincing victory in a must-win first round game in the Big East Tournament.
In addition, 'Nova lost games at Georgetown and on a neutral court versus NC State on controversial calls. That fact should also be considered.
Atlantic 10
Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed), Temple (10 seed)
Wallflowers: Saint Joseph's (10 seed), Dayton (12 seed), UMass (1st out)
Still doubting the credentials of St. Joe's and Temple? You have no choice on the Owls; they're in with the automatic bid. The Hawks, meanwhile, have done more than enough to earn an at-large bid. How's two wins in eight days over top 10 Xavier?
The Philly school is 5-6 versus the top 50 and 8-8 in games against the top 100. Not too many bubbles have that many solid wins without a greater number of losses.
Saint Joseph's also swept UMass, won at Temple and crushed Villanova.
UMass is my first team out due to only one win (at Dayton) over a possible NCAA Tournament team. Victories over Syracuse and Rhode Island decreased in value as the season wore on. 1-5 versus the top 50 won't be good enough to make, especially with three losses to sub 100 teams.
Dayton didn't do itself any favors by falling to Xavier Thursday, but a loss to the A-10 regular season champs didn't hurt the Flyers' already strong RPI too much (they dropped from 29 to 32), and with victories at Louisville and at home against Pitt, combined with winning four of its last five, Dayton remains in my field. They also beat Temple, St. Joe's, American and Coppin State, all of which will be dancing. However, the injury to star Chris Wright might cost UD a bid today.
ACC
Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (5 seed), Miami (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (6th out)
I don't see how Virginia Tech's profile warrants a bid, no matter what its head coach may say. Yes, the Hokies played well against UNC, but one game doesn't ma
6 comments Last one added about 1 year ago — Leave a Comment
Jake Widlowski about 1 year ago
I agree with your view on Virginia Tech. They don't have any good wins over solid teams. Their wins in the ACC were only against the bottom dwellers of the conference. I say they shouldn't be in but you never know about the selection committee sometimes. No one in the selection committee is represented by the ACC this year though.
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Chris Copeland about 1 year ago
Sorry, but if UGA beats Arkansas- there is no way the SEC gets 7 in.
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Jordan Schwartz about 1 year ago
I said if Georgia wins, Ole Miss gets knocked out. So I agree. I'm putting Georgia as a 14, moving Cal State Fullerton to a 13 and Oral Roberts to a 12.
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Jesse Arendt about 1 year ago
Good call on Illinois St. Bad call on Dayton. Beat Joe Lunardi calling the seeds too. Solid work.
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Anonymous about 1 year ago
Joe Lunardi is an alumni and employee of St. Joesph's University. Funny how St. Joe's got in when they clearly didn't deserve it. They play in WEAK conference. Arizona State got screwed. ASU beat the A-10's best team (Xavier) by 22. ASU beat Arizona twice this season and finished 5th in the Pac-10, while Arizona finished 7th. The NCAA is a joke.
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Jordan Schwartz about 1 year ago
I'm not sure how many seeds Lunardi got exactly right, but I got 29, missing by one on another 27. He did get all 65 selections correct, as he snuck in Villanova over Illinois State, Ohio State and Virginia Tech at the last minute. Not sure what took him so long.
I'm sorry that you're upset Arizona State didn't get in but St. Joseph's definitely had the better resume and I'm pretty sure Joe Lunardi has no influence over who the Committee actually selects.
St. Joe's (21-12, 9-7)...RPI: 44...SOS: 53...Top 50: 5-6...Top 100: 8-8...R/N: 13-7
Ariz St. (19-12, 9-9)...RPI: 83...SOS: 77...Top 50: 5-7...Top 100: 7-10...R/N: 6-8
ASU beat Xavier but St. Joe's beat Xavier twice. No team with an RPI below 70 has ever made the field, so ASU had pretty much no shot. The four games against teams ranked 290 and below really did the Sun Devils in.
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