It's the greatest day of the year, but for some, it could be the worst. Let's find out which "Wallflowers" (teams not quite ready to take part in the Big Dance) are finally about to hit the dance floor and which will be taking their mom's car home alone when the clock strikes seven.
Last four in: Arizona, Villanova, Dayton**, Mississippi*
First four out: UMass, Illinois State, Oregon, Southern Illinois
Next four out: Arizona State, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, VCU
*Mississippi will drop from the field if Georgia or Illinois receives an auto bid
**Dayton will drop from the field if Georgia AND Illinois receive auto bids
Big East
Dancing with a Hottie: Georgetown (3 seed), Louisville (3 seed), Pittsburgh (4 seed), UConn (4 seed), Notre Dame (6 seed), Marquette (7 seed), West Virginia (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Villanova (12 seed)
Villanova (20-12, RPI: 51, SOS: 48) has five wins against teams headed to the NCAA Tournament. They were over George Mason, at Temple, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and UConn. They also beat Syracuse away from home twice, including a convincing victory in a must-win first round game in the Big East Tournament.
In addition, 'Nova lost games at Georgetown and on a neutral court versus NC State on controversial calls. That fact should also be considered.
Atlantic 10
Dancing with a Hottie: Xavier (3 seed), Temple (10 seed)
Wallflowers: Saint Joseph's (10 seed), Dayton (12 seed), UMass (1st out)
Still doubting the credentials of St. Joe's and Temple? You have no choice on the Owls; they're in with the automatic bid. The Hawks, meanwhile, have done more than enough to earn an at-large bid. How's two wins in eight days over top 10 Xavier?
The Philly school is 5-6 versus the top 50 and 8-8 in games against the top 100. Not too many bubbles have that many solid wins without a greater number of losses.
Saint Joseph's also swept UMass, won at Temple and crushed Villanova.
UMass is my first team out due to only one win (at Dayton) over a possible NCAA Tournament team. Victories over Syracuse and Rhode Island decreased in value as the season wore on. 1-5 versus the top 50 won't be good enough to make, especially with three losses to sub 100 teams.
Dayton didn't do itself any favors by falling to Xavier Thursday, but a loss to the A-10 regular season champs didn't hurt the Flyers' already strong RPI too much (they dropped from 29 to 32), and with victories at Louisville and at home against Pitt, combined with winning four of its last five, Dayton remains in my field. They also beat Temple, St. Joe's, American and Coppin State, all of which will be dancing. However, the injury to star Chris Wright might cost UD a bid today.
ACC
Dancing with a Hottie: North Carolina (1 seed), Duke (2 seed), Clemson (5 seed), Miami (9 seed)
Wallflowers: Virginia Tech (6th out)
I don't see how Virginia Tech's profile warrants a bid, no matter what its head coach may say. Yes, the Hokies played well against UNC, but one game doesn't ma
5 Comments
Loading more comments...
This comment and all replies have been deleted This comment has been deleted Undo delete