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Let’s be honest, teams that win Super Bowls absolutely have to undergo a certain element of luck. Super Bowls cannot be bought.
Just look at the 2007 New England Patriots, who went undefeated in the regular season and set an all-time record with 589 points scored after adding Randy Moss and Wes Welker in the offseason, but couldn’t win the Super Bowl because they peaked too early in the season.
Key elements of a Super Bowl team are getting hot at the right time. See the 2007 New York Giants, the 2010 Green Bay Packers, and the 2011 New York Giants. Super Bowl teams need to stay healthy, which means Michael Vick can’t suffer an injury in December that lingers to the playoffs, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson need to be at 100 percent in Week 17, and the offensive line can’t lose anyone else.
And a little luck never hurts: The ’07 Giants had David Tyree’s catch (and the fact that the referees didn’t whistle Eli Manning dead). The ’08 Steelers had a 100-yard interception return for a touchdown by James Harrison that—had it been one yard shorter—would have given the Super Bowl championship to Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals. And Drew Brees in’09 was fortunate enough that four-time MVP Peyton Manning made arguably the most costly turnover in history on the NFL’s biggest stage.
That’s not to discredit those teams that have won the Super Bowl. Luck is part of the game, and the ’12 Eagles could really use some. The quality of the elite teams in the league right now is very high—the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots both figure to be top-notch teams, and they’re both better than the Eagles. That’s why talent can only take a team so far.
When it really comes down to it, the Eagles need a lucky break—a player to fall on a key fumble at the right time or a flagrant penalty against them to go uncalled. Think about the ’04 team when L.J. Smith was hit in the red zone and Freddie Mitchell caught his fumble in the end zone for a score.
Luck could come in the form of the ’02 Eagles that lost their final game to the New York Giants but still clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Luck could be the Giants losing some easy games and finishing just 10-6 with the Eagles winning the division or the Eagles lucking out and getting to face Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks in the playoffs instead of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
That’s what the ’12 Eagles need. If it doesn’t happen this year, it really might be the last chance.