Projecting the Field on Selection Sunday

Here is the list of teams that, in my view, will be dancing in the NCAA Tournament.

1 seeds: North Carolina, Memphis*, UCLA*, Kansas/Texas winner
2 seeds: Kansas/Texas loser, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Tennessee
3 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Stanford, Xavier
4 seeds: Butler*, Notre Dame, UCONN, Purdue
5 seeds: Drake*, Marquette, Pitt*, Washington St
6 seeds: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Michigan State, USC
7 seeds: Indiana, Mississippi St, West Virginia, BYU
8 seeds: Miami, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Gonzaga
9 seeds: St Mary’s, Kansas St, South Alabama, UNLV*
10 seeds: Texas A&M, Arizona St, Kentucky, Kent St*
11 seeds: Davidson*, St Joe’s, Oregon, Temple*
12 seeds Illinois St, Arizona, Baylor, Western Kentucky*
13 seeds: George Mason*, San Diego*, Siena*, Cornell*
14 seeds: Boise St*, Oral Roberts*, Winthrop*, CS Fullerton*
15 seeds: Belmont*, Austin Peay*, UMBC*, Portland St*
16 seeds: Coppin St*, Miss Valley St*, American U*, Southland*, Mount Saint Mary’s*

* Auto Bid

Notes:
-Based on Arkansas and Wisconsin winning their conference tournaments. If Georgia and/or Illinois win, the last teams in (Ill St and Arizona) would become the first teams out.
-Seeded teams are not listed in any particular order.

Last 4 in: Illinois St (#65), Arizona, Baylor, Oregon

Last 7 out: Villanova (#66), UMASS, VCU, Dayton, New Mexico, Ohio St, Virginia Tech

I’ll give a quick run-down as to why some teams are in and others are not:

Illinois St: Finished in 2nd place in a top 10 RPI Conference and has RPI of 33. Giving a chance to a mid-major over a middle of the road major conference school.

Arizona St: 5 wins over RPI Top 50 including Xavier and Stanford.

Villanova: 3 RPI Top 50 wins, but bad conference losses to DePaul, Rutgers and Cincinnati.

My goal is to have teams seeded within one line of the actual bracket.