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Not one, not two, not three...
OK, well maybe three.
The Miami Heat aren't going anywhere this year or next, but expecting this unit to become a decade-long dynasty is pure nonsense. The concern isn't LeBron James, obviously. He could probably put up MVP numbers into his 80s.
The concern is Dwyane Wade, the 30-year-old who's always relied so heavily on his athleticism and never quite developed a consistent perimeter game. That probably means he's going to keep taking the ball into the paint, and that means he'll be at increased risk for injury for the remainder of his career.
Usually, players compensate for their passing primes by spending more time on the perimeter, where foot speed is less essential and injuries are less common. Thus far, that hasn't been Wade's strategy. Unless something changes, he could be the first of Miami's Big Three to decline.
The bigger fear, though, is everyone else. The Heat rely upon a pretty old supporting cast, and you can't feel especially good about the injury risks associated with Ray Allen, Mike Miller and Rashard Lewis.
It shouldn't be too hard for Miami to continue plucking bargains from the waiver wire and serving as a haven for ring-chasers. But, chances are there will be a younger flavor of the month in three years that could make that strategy a bit more difficult.
That will become a problem given Miami's woeful lack of youth. Norris Cole had some nice moments as a rookie, but he'll hardly constitute adequate depth three years from now.
Heat fans will naively believe that another Ray Allen will save the day every summer, at least so long as LeBron James is around.
But, that hasn't been the case for the Los Angeles Lakers. Sometimes it happens, and sometimes it doesn't. As Miami's superstars move toward the end of their prime years, there's a much better chance it won't.