30 Bad Fantasy Baseball Scenarios

Since 2006, Jenks has missed fewer and fewer bats while closing fewer and fewer games for the White Sox. His K/9IP rate has gone from 10.33 in 2006 to 5.55 in 2008.  Not surprisingly, his contact rate has increased from 77.8 percent to 84.5 percent over that same period. This is Todd Jones territory…you have been warned.

AL West

Angels – Both Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu show their age this season. 

Hard to believe Guerrero is only 33, but it seems as if his characteristic gait may be catching up to him. Should he and Abreu begin to fade, the Angels will struggle to score runs, affecting nearly every player’s fantasy value. 

Guerrero was never much for taking a walk, so as that bat slows, expect the numbers to tumble, maybe faster than for an average player.

Athletics – Every negative prediction in every fantasy article you have read about Matt Holliday comes true.  I

In the recent FoxSports.com mock draft I was asked to participate in, Holliday was selected fifth overall, before Alex Rodriguez. Ridiculous. I admit that is the extreme, but if you are willing to use a second round pick, don’t you want to be sure of what you are getting?  There are far safer outfielders to take before Holliday, so let someone else take the risk.

Mariners – Felix Hernandez doesn’t break-out…again. 

I’ll admit it, I thought last year was the year Hernandez would become a fantasy star, but his season went with the rest of the Mariners. What is to say Seattle will be any better this season, Ken Griffey, Jr.? 

Hernandez has never topped 176 Ks in any season. Should he struggle to get wins, I might rather have Ted Lilly roughly 10 rounds later, if willing to trade a lower ERA for more wins.

Rangers – Last season was the best power year Josh Hamilton ever experiences.

Hamilton was a fantasy star in 2008, at least in the first half.  Sure, his overall numbers look great, but a sharp decrease in slugging percentage cannot be overlooked. Hamilton’s career 33.0 percent fly ball rate is very low for a classic power hitter. Is it possible that what we saw last season may have been closer to his power ceiling than fantasy owners want to admit?

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