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Updated Super Bowl Odds After Conclusion of NFL's Preseason

Jeff GrantContributor ISeptember 4, 2012

Updated Super Bowl Odds After Conclusion of NFL's Preseason

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    NFL fans are big believers in the New England Patriots winning their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history, as they've played a major part in establishing last year's AFC champions as betting favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans on Feb. 3, 2013.

    There's also 31 other teams vying for the honor of being called champions at the end of the 2012 NFL season, including the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants, who are currently tied with the Dallas Cowboys in having the 11th-best chance to win it all.

    Let's take a closer look at the Super Bowl XLVII betting odds now that the preseason schedule has come to an end, while also making some predictions along the way.

     

     

Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew ended his 38-day holdout Sunday, which is likely the only thing fans will get to celebrate all year.

    The Jaguars could be listed as an underdog in all but one of their games on the 2012 NFL schedule, as they open the season getting four points (odds courtesy of SBR Forum) at Minnesota. 

    Just be glad you're getting some value in this number, as it would have been sent out at half the price if Tim Tebow would have landed here instead of the Big Apple.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 200/1 

Cleveland Browns

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    The Cleveland Browns were the talk of the 2012 NFL draft after selecting running back Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden in the first round, but unfortunately one of those players didn't see any preseason action.

    Richardson has resumed football activities for the first time since Aug. 9, which is certainly good news for a franchise that's looking to take a step forward in the AFC North Division.

    I'm not a buyer at this level, especially with the Browns opening up as nine-point home underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

Minnesota Vikings

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    Sports bettors will be waiting anxiously to see how Adrian Peterson performs on the football field if he sees action in the regular season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

    Backup running back Toby Gerhart gained 79 yards and 17 carries during the 2012 preseason, but failed to reach pay dirt. Quarterback Christian Ponder figures to be under immense pressure if Peterson suffers any setbacks from returning from last year's season-ending knee surgery.

    The NFC North division is loaded, which has me looking in a different direction in this category.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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    If you're truly a riverboat gambler, than you might be inclined to back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at triple-digit odds to win their second Super Bowl in franchise history.

    Rookie head coach Greg Schiano saw his squad split its four preseason contests, but he's a long way from Rutgers and his days battling Big East Conference opponents.

    I believe the Buccaneers will be one of the more improved defenses in the league, which could lead to a potential trip to the playoffs.

    The buck will stop there, though. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

St. Louis Rams

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    The St. Louis Rams might be the toughest team in the NFL to get a handle on heading into their Week 1 matchup as nine-point road underdogs against the Detroit Lions.

    Las Vegas oddsmakers have a tremendous amount of respect for new head coach Jeff Fisher, who returns to the sidelines after taking a year off. He registered 142 victories during his 16 full seasons as the leader of the Tennessee Titans.

    In a group of five triple-digit long shots in terms of betting odds, I believe this team has the best chance if the San Francisco 49ers falter in the NFC West division.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

Oakland Raiders

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    If you told me Oakland Raiders running back Darren McFadden would play all 16 games in the regular season, sign me up at this price.

    Problem is, the price wouldn't be available if that were to happen.

    The former Arkansas Razorbacks star has played in 45 games over his first four seasons, something that I can't get behind in this category.

    The Silver and Black have very little depth in the backfield.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

Miami Dolphins

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    The Miami Dolphins were an absolute circus during the 2012 NFL preseason, losing all four of their games by a 96-43 margin.

    Unless you're looking to turn $100,000 into millions, I suggest saving your money for a rainy day.

    I'm also surprised that the number is as short as it is, with the AFC East division being home to three other capable teams.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

Indianapolis Colts

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    The Indianapolis Colts aren't going to go from having the worst record in the league to Super Bowl champions in one year, but it will be very interesting to see their betting odds when the market opens for the 2013 season.

    If you're a believer in rookie quarterback Andrew Luck's talents, save your money and wait for his sophomore campaign.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 75/1

Washington Redskins

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    Quarterback Robert Griffin III will open up his rookie campaign in one of the toughest venues in the National Football League, as the Washington Redskins are currently nine-point road underdogs against the New Orleans Saints this Sunday.

    The NFC East figures to be one of the toughest divisions in football once again, which is why I can't possibly recommend taking a shot at a major score—even at this enticing price.

    Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan didn't lift a Lombardi Trophy until John Elway's final years with the Denver Broncos.

    Keep a close eye on the opening number in 2013. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Tennessee Titans

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    The Tennessee Titans can be a very dangerous football team this year if second-year quarterback Jake Locker can handle the starting job, as the rest of the squad has great balance.

    I was very impressed with the defense's ability to cause havoc in the 2012 preseason, which led directly to leading the league with two other teams with a plus-seven turnover differential.

    If things break the right way, I believe the Titans are a legitimate long-shot opportunity in this market, especially if running back Chris Johnson explodes in the second year of his major contract.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Arizona Cardinals

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    The Arizona Cardinals are going to begin the 2012 NFL season with John Skelton under center, which causes me to place them in the "no way you're going to win a Super Bowl" category.

    Next.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

Buffalo Bills

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    If the Buffalo Bills didn't play in the same division as the New England Patriots, I believe this number would be more in the 30/1 range. Luckily for loyal fans, it also provides a ton of value.

    I'm always wary of so-called "sleeper teams" by media experts, as they usually fail to live up to expectations that were placed on them during the offseason.

    Defensive end Mario Williams was a huge signing, but many forget that he wasn't on the field down the stretch when the Houston Texans made their run into the 2011 NFL playoffs. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 55/1

Kansas City Chiefs

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    The Kansas City Chiefs are another trendy pick to make some noise this year, but they may once again fall flat in being led by a great offensive coordinator who can't handle the responsibilities of being a head coach.

    Romeo Crennel still deserves some respect heading into this season, considering he led the Cleveland Browns to a 10-6 record in 2007, which was that franchise's best mark since 1994.

    Any of the four AFC West teams are playable due to each of them having a chance of winning the division. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

Seattle Seahawks

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    I'm glad that Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll made the right decision in starting Russell Wilson over Matt Flynn as his starting quarterback, but that doesn't mean that I'm running to the betting window either.

    Wilson is expected to be the shortest signal-caller in the NFL's opening week, which makes these betting odds seem even shorter due to the former Wisconsin Badgers star being a rookie.

    I don't think he has enough playmakers in the passing game to win it all in 2012. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 45/1

Cincinnati Bengals

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    The Cincinnati Bengals made an unexpected run into the NFL playoffs last year, as they were led by the rookie combination of quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green.

    Does that automatically lead to a Super Bowl trophy?  

    Not exactly.

    If you're going to play an AFC North division member, I recommend backing the Baltimore Ravens.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 45/1

New York Jets

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    Stock in the New York Jets has plummeted during the 2012 NFL preseason, as they've fallen from six- to three-point favorites in their regular season opener versus the Buffalo Bills this Sunday.

    The enticing betting odds signals to me that this is nothing more than a sucker bet.

    I suggest watching Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow from afar this season.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Carolina Panthers

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    I really wasn't aware that Cam Newton was getting ready for his sophomore campaign during the preseason, as all I heard about were Peyton Manning and the two quarterbacks featured in the previous slide.

    Due to the current number being offered in the market, I'm not sure that the betting public is buying into Ryan Kalil's offseason prediction.

    Maybe next year.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

San Diego Chargers

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    Running back Ryan Mathews must be able to move past his preseason injury if the San Diego Chargers plan on winning it all this year.

    Not to say that quarterback Philip Rivers isn't capable of doing it on his own in the passing game, but I'm a believer that he'll miss being able to connect with wide receiver Vincent Jackson down the field, who signed a contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

    I'll tell you one thing—you'll have a hard time finding an NFL expert who hasn't picked this team to win the Super Bowl at some point over the last five years.

    I'm not about to do that here. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 28/1

Detroit Lions

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    It's easy to throw a $20 bill in the direction of the Detroit Lions, as they possess one of the more exciting offensive duos in the NFL, with wide receiver Calvin Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford.

    The Lions should start out the season in the victory column, as they are nine-point home favorites against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday.

    Problem is, they play in the highly-competitive NFC North, which will cause me to not back any team from that division in this category. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

Atlanta Falcons

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    As a sports bettor, it's very important not to let your emotions get in the way of your decisions, which is why I'm going to give the Atlanta Falcons a chance of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in New Orleans.

    The Falcons caused a lot of heartache for underdog bettors in the NFC Wild Card round last year, suffering a 24-2 loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion New York Giants on Jan. 8.

    Second-year wide receiver Julio Jones has championship qualities due to playing his collegiate ball at Alabama—something that may rub off on the rest of his teammates.  

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

New York Giants

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    The National Football League hasn't had a team repeat as champions since the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII and XXXIX, which is why I'm not a buyer here—even at this inviting price.

    I'm definitely surprised that he shows up on this list at higher odds than this brother.

    More on that to come.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

Dallas Cowboys

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    There's no way I can recommend backing America's Team to win the Super Bowl when they are going to need a big season from wide receiver Dez Bryant.

    He simply can't be trusted.

    The Dallas Cowboys always attract a large number of wagers in the market, but supporters have been left holding a worthless ticket since 1996.

    That's not about to change this year. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

New Orleans Saints

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    The New Orleans Saints are another team that I need to be careful with in terms of emotion, as I believe Sean Payton is one of the best head coaches in the league.

    He won't be on the sideline this year due to Bountygate, which is clearly demonstrated in the current number being offered.

    Quarterback Drew Brees may thrown for over 5,000 yards again, but he's not winning his second Super Bowl without one of the best play callers in the game by his side. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

Baltimore Ravens

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    The Baltimore Ravens suffered a heart-wrenching 23-20 loss to the New England Patriots as seven-point road underdogs in the 2012 AFC Championship game, which has caused the franchise to focus on trying to take the next step during the offseason.

    I don't anticipate this number moving much in the first few weeks of the regular season, especially with linebacker Terrell Suggs being out with an Achilles' injury.

    A wait-and-see approach.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

Denver Broncos

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    Quarterback Peyton Manning is a major player in terms of moving the market, especially when you consider that the Denver Broncos were being offered at twice the price during their playoff run a year ago.

    He completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 343 yards during the preseason, while throwing for two touchdowns and three interceptions.

    I'm an investor when it comes to sports betting, which is why I'm not about to gamble here.

    No. 18 may prove me wrong.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

Chicago Bears

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    Chicago Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher was back out on the practice field for the first time in more than a month Monday, which may cause a shift in this number heading into the team's regular season opener against the Indianapolis Colts.

    As mentioned earlier, I'm not interested in playing any NFC North team in this category, but I've definitely noticed the 81 combined points the Bears scored in winning their last three preseason games.

    Total bettors will want to monitor the offense closely in the opening weeks with Mike Tice replacing Mike Martz as offensive coordinator.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

Pittsburgh Steelers

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    Ben Roethlisberger has the opportunity to put up big numbers for fantasy football teams this year, which could also lead to his third Lombardi Trophy.

    He has tremendous weapons in the passing game, while I'm a big fan of Todd Haley, as long as he's an offensive coordinator and not a head coach.

    I'm a bit concerned about the aging defense, but Pittsburgh is a major player in the market.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

Houston Texans

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    I'm a big situational handicapper, which is why I'm not expecting the Houston Texans to win it all just a year after making their first appearance in the NFL playoffs.

    Houston, we have a problem. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

Philadelphia Eagles

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    The Philadelphia Eagles will go as far as quarterback Michael Vick will take them, which will cause a lot of money to sit on the sidelines due to his propensity of getting injured.

    You're always going to find people who take a high-risk, high-reward approach when investing, but I'm not going to recommend that tactic here.

    It's still important to note that the Eagles did outscore opponents by 68 points last year despite finishing with an even 8-8 record.

    Playable. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 11/1

San Francisco 49ers

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    From a situational standpoint, I can't back the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl due to their plus-28 turnover differential from a season ago.

    That's an incredible statistic that simply can't be duplicated.

    Jim Harbaugh's squad is capable of proving me wrong, but I'm going to keep my cash inside my wallet.

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 9/1

Green Bay Packers

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    The Green Bay Packers were second in the league with a plus-24 turnover differential, which played a major part in the team posting a 15-1 regular season record.

    Don't be surprised if this number drops if the Packers manage to get past the San Francisco 49ers as five-point home favorites this Sunday, as it's clearly a measuring-stick game for the betting public.

    I won't get involved at any point this season. 

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

New England Patriots

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    The New England Patriots have won eight straight season openers, which is probably already built into the current price being offered. I don't anticipate much movement in the betting odds because of this heading into Week 2.

    Bill Belichick is the only head coach in league history to win three Super Bowl championships in a four-year span, but that experience didn't help him in last year's 21-17 loss to the New York Giants in Indianapolis.

    Clearly the favorite, with a cupcake schedule in tow.      

     

    2012 Super Bowl Odds: 11/2

     

    Super Bowl odds in this article are provided by Bovada

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