The Astros are trying to improve on their 4th place finish of last year and have made changes to their team. Roy Oswalt is unquestionably the ace of the staff and they are hoping that Brandon Backe (only 43 innings pitched last year) and Wandy Williams can improve and give them more stability in their rotation. They are also expecting Chris Sampson to improve from his 4.59 ERA from last season.
Jose Valverde saved 47 games for them in 2007, so they are set there. Doug Brocail, Oscar Villarreal, and Geoff Geary will handle the rest of the relief duties. Brocail is the best of the group, and if Villarreal and Geary can be better this year, their bullpen will be set.
Miguel Tejada joins Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee to make a formidable middle of the lineup for Houston.
Ty Wiggington will occupy third base, and they will go with youngsters Hunter Pence (.322 avg., 17 homers and 69 RBI’s in 108 games) and Michael Bourn in the outfield. How that pans out over the course of the season will have a big effect on Houston’s record.
I think the Astros will surprise some this year and win more games than expected. They have some young talent mixed in with their veterans, and although their pitching should be better, they probably won’t win the division.
Projected finish - 3rd place
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds come into this season looking to improve upon their 5th place finish of last year. For that to happen Bronson Arroyo has to have a bounce back season, and Aaron Harang has to pitch like he did last year to strengthen the top of their rotation.
After that, the pitching is weak. Jeremy Affeldt probably won’t get a spot following an awful spring. Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle both had ERA’s over 5.00 last year, and there is really no one else that is proven.
If Harang and Arroyo don’t perform, then they are in trouble once again.
Francisco Cordero is a proven closer, and David Weathers will handle a lot of the set up duties. Weathers was pretty effective closing last year so they do have some insurance in case Cordero goes down. After Jered Burton, they are pretty thin and untested in the bullpen.
Once again they will depend on the bats of Ken Griffey Jr, Adam Dunn, and Brandon Phillips to bail them out of anything their pitchers get them into, which has not been a winning formula.
The Reds just don’t have the pitching depth to get over the hump, and their relievers will not be able to bridge the gap in the middle innings over the long haul to make up for that. They will need surprising performances from players I am not expecting it from in order to improve.
Projected finish - 6th place
Pittsburg Pirates
The Pirates hope to avoid the cellar this year, and they will be depending on some of their young arms to make sure that doesn’t happen again. Tom Gorzelanny heads up the rotation and he was 14-10 with a 3.88 ERA. Ian Snell pitched well and logged over 200 innings with a 3.76 ERA.
They need Zach Duke and Paul Maholm to step up and be more effective than they have been. Matt Morris returning to the form he had in St. Louis in 2005 would help also.
Matt Capps did an adequate job closing last year. Demaso Marte posted good numbers out of the bullpen and looks to build on that. After that they will need some of their young and inexperienced arms to come through. This is the weakest part of their team and it has to improve if they are going to finish higher than last year.
Their lineup is actually pretty good. Jason Bay looks to be more of a force this year as his numbers tailed off last season. Jack Wilson and Freddie Sanchez are solid, and Adam Laroche won’t hurt them at first base.
Another speedy youngster, Nyjer Morgan, looks like he will get his shot in centerfield. Technically it is a competition between he and Nate McLouth, but Morgan should prevail as the starter, and he looks like he is going to be a good major leaguer.
If the Pirates get a little pitching, and I think they will, they can avoid the cellar; but I don’t think they will do much better.
Projected finish - 5th place
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