Why seed: In by a little now, A-10 very good conference, should get some credit, but mid-major upsets and poor conference performance could hurt them, even on the bubble. Scheduled pretty tough non-conference relatively. Loss in A-10 quarters killer, puts them pretty close to the bubble, probably in last 4 in. A-10 success story helps them out.
3. Stanford: 26-6, 15, 61, Pac-10 #2
Good: 14-4 in Pac 10, Non-conf win over Texas Tech in Dallas, conference wins over USC, Arizona twice, Washington St twice, and Oregon. 2 of 4 conference losses in OT.
Bad: Absolute cupcake non-conf schedule, only 3 top 150 teams in schedule, and lost to Siena. Lost last 2 games of the season.
Why seed: 13 top-100 wins, great conference record in one of top conferences in nation keep them high. Struggles continue in Pac-10 tourney, may drop a seed more, also can move up with strong run. Move up one after really good win over Arizona.
14. Austin Peay: 24-10, 84, 202, OVC champion
Won conference championship last Saturday to get in, RPI puts them as a 14-15 seed, both top 100 wins over Belmont. Competitive in games against Vanderbilt,Memphis, and Utah St.
7. Oklahoma: 22-10, 26, 18, Big 12 #3
Good: Great turnaround from struggling last year. Jeff Capel's done great job, and Blake Griffin's been huge. Good conference run at 9-7, wins over Baylor twice and Texas A&M. Beat West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas as well.
Bad: 3 conference losses, though all to current NCAA teams (Memphis, USC, and SFA), but bad conference losses at Colorado and Nebraska.
Why seed: Mix of good and bad wins, but probably third-best team in 5 or 6 bid conference puts them there. 10 top-100 wins always should get in. Easier game than expected with Colorado coming up Friday. Probably settled at 7, may threat for 6 if beats Texas.
10. Illinois St: 23-9, 35, 73, MVC #2
Good: 5-5 against top 100 teams, beat Wright St and Cincinnati in non-conference, beat Creighton twice and Southern Illinois twice in MVC play. 13-5 pretty solid as #2, went to MVC Tourney finals.
Bad: Bad losses to Indiana St and E Michigan, not much in terms of competition in non-conference. Best win was RPI #51 Creighton.
Why seed: Enough decent wins to get in, high enough RPI, good conference record in solid conference, but Drake destroying them last Sunday didn't make them look great. Should be fine.
2. Georgetown: 27-4, 7, 39, Big East auto guess
Good: 5 top 50 wins, beat UConn, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Marquette, Syracuse (split) and Louisville (split). Only 4 losses. 15-3 in Big East.
Bad: Only 9 wins against top 100, which isn't many for a 2-seed, very easy non-conference schedule (130 SOS), only tough game lost by 14 to Memphis.
Why seed: Big East champ gives them a boost, stuck here after not doing enough in regular season to threat for a 1-seed enough.
15. Winthrop: 20-11, 107, 177, Big South champion
In by defeating UNC-Asheville (and human giant Kenny George) last Saturday, a lower seed than last year's 13-seed by going only 10-4 in conference, also lost to High Point and Coastal Carolina, both bad losses. Did beat Miami and Georgia Tech. Moved up with shock loss in specific to the Southland frontrunners. Tourney committee might bump them to 14, but I think they’ll be here.
West
1. UCLA: 29-3, 6, 22, Pac-10 auto guess
Good: 16-2 in Pac-10 play, 19-2 against top 100 teams, beat Maryland, Michigan St, and Davidson in non-conference play. Beat Stanford twice, Oregon twice, Washington St twice, Arizona twice, and USC (split).
Bad: Bad loss to Washington, struggled mightily to win last two games, not much else.
Why seed: Wins Pac-10, 28 wins, only 3 losses for major conference program gets them ahead of Kansas and Texas right now, not guaranteed a 1-seed though. Pretty safe as of right now.
16. UT-Arlington: 16-11, 150, 212, Southland auto guess
Picked as auto guess due to highest RPI remaining after shocker win and having both Stephen F Austin, a near bubble team, and Sam Houston St, an RPI top 100 team, losing in the semis.
Biggest wins were Stephen F Austin in the regular season and SH St in the tourney Friday.
8. UNLV: 24-7, 27, 78, MWC #2
Good: 9-6 vs top 100, did beat Nevada and San Diego in non-conference. 12-4 in solid MWC, did beat BYU (split), San Diego St twice, and New Mexico (split).
Bad: Bad losses to Air Force and Utah, blown out in only top 20 opponent in Louisville at home.
Why seed: Probably could move down, lot of doubters, but figured sweet 16 effort last year helps some, with most of the same group. Should be in 7-10 range. Trip to MWC finals gets them in the higher part of that group.
9. Mississippi St: 22-9, 34, 54, SEC #3
Good: 12-4 in SEC play, never not got in before (same logic helps Kentucky as well), strong recently, won 7 of last 9, beat Kentucky, Arkansas, and Mississippi (split).
Bad: Rest of non-conference cupcakes. Only 4-9 against top 100, not real good, lost every tough non-conference game, didn't win any that would be considered good.
Why seed: Very good in conference play, and played some tough opponents in non-conf, though didn't win any of them. Odd setup actually favors them over Georgia-Kentucky winner getting stuck with Miss St in 2nd game of day Saturday.
5. Indiana: 25-7, 21, 56, Big Ten #2
Good: 5 of 6 losses all against top 15 teams, big wins over Purdue, Michigan St in conference, Illinois St and Kentucky non-conference.
Bad: Loss to Penn St last week was awful. Kelvin Sampson issue always a problem. Besides that, not too much.
Why seed: 8-5 vs top-100 always good, seemed to do ok post-Kelvin Sampson to maintain high seed. Drops a slot after early loss, even if it was miracle-ish.
12. Western Kentucky: 25-6, 40, 139, Sun Belt champion
Bubble team if didn't win conference tourney Tuesday night, I would have them out. Seeded 12 because if in probably would be there. Only top 100 win home game against Nebraska in overtime. Now in officially. Two Sun Belt teams in tourney odd, but likely.
4. Marquette: 23-9, 20, 19, Big East #5
Good: Beat Wisconsin, IUPUI, and blew out Okla State in non conf, all losses to top 50 teams. Beat Notre Dame, Pitt, and Villanova in conference.
Bad: Lost 2 of last 3, not great non-conference schedule (157 SOS NC), 4 losses by 14 or more.
Why seed: Solid Big East team, only 11-7 in conference, not great. Good record in dominant conference though. Moving up with 2 very good wins in tourney already including against Notre Dame, probably be in 4-5 range, probably 5, but 4 for now after loss to Pitt.
13. Oral Roberts: 23-8, 52, 155, Summit champion
Had been estimated in, and was made official Tuesday night after beating #2 seed IUPUI. Top 65 RPI gets them pretty high seed for one-bid conferences, top wins over Oklahoma State and IUPUI (2 of 3).
6. Clemson: 22-8, 22, 46, ACC #3
Good: 10 top-100 wins, didn't fade like years past, 10-6 in ACC always viewed as impressive. Beat Mississippi St and Purdue in non-conference. Also beat Miami and took UNC to OT in both games they played.
Bad: No top 25 wins, hasn't looked great in ACC, and played pretty cupcake non-conference outside of 2 mentioned above.
Why seed: Lot of good wins, high RPI, and being the 3rd best team in the perceived greatness of the ACC gets them up here. Can move a slot up or down in tourney, but not much.
11. Arizona: 18-14, 39, 2, Pac-10 #5
Good: #2 schedule in country, 10 top-100 wins, non-conference wins over Texas A&M, UNLV, Houston, and CS-Fullerton, took Kansas to OT. Conference wins over Washington St (twice) and USC.
Bad: 8-10 conference record, lost 6 of last 8, not very good record in general.
Why seed: In because of ridiculous schedule, and lots of good wins. 12 of 14 losses against top 76 teams. Barely in though, and really barely in after losing to Stanford in Pac-10 quarters, should send thank you card to about 9 bubble teams that lost Thursday.
3. Wisconsin: 27-4, 13, 69, Big Ten auto guess
Good: Every loss was against a good team, all top 40 teams, Big non-conference win over Texas at Texas, dominant in Big Ten, beating Indiana twice, Ohio St twice, and Michigan State. 5 top 50 wins.
Bad: Couldn't beat Purdue, 1-2 in non-conference games against teams in top 90, pretty easy schedule pre-Big Ten. Big Ten not real good this year anyway.
Why seed: Rewarded for winning Big Ten regular season outright, fact doesn't lose against bad teams will be appreciated. Could move up a slot with solid tourney run, I don't think they'll drop.
14. San Diego: 20-13, 94, 100, WAC champion
In by shocking the WCC world and beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga on back-to-back nights. Won't have luxury of playing in San Diego in the NCAAs like they did in WCC tournament. Did also beat Kentucky this year.
7. West Virginia: 23-10, 28, 40, Big East #7
Good: 3 top 50 wins, 11-7 Big East record, top non-conference wins are UMBC and Winthrop, did lose to Tennessee by 2 and Oklahoma in double OT. Beat Marquette, Pitt, and Syracuse in conference.
Bad: Bad loss to Cincinnati, not many pleasing wins. Non-conference schedule smells of cupcakes.
Why seed: 11 win Big East team, probably the 7th best team. Did go 5-8 against top 100 which isn't bad. "Horrible schedule" still is 48th, which is in the top 1/6th of nation. Moving up with surprising great run in Big East tournament including beating UConn Thursday, kind of like Syracuse 2 years ago. Didn’t go quite as far though. Probably a 7 or 8 seed.
10. South Alabama: 24-6, 37, 124, Sun Belt #2
Good: 3 top 50 wins great for Sun Belt team, also beat Mississippi St and took Vanderbilt to 2 OT in Vandyland. Beat W Kentucky, the only real tough competition outside of Mid Ten St who shocked them in the tourney, twice.
Bad: Couldn't win conference tourney, MTSU not viewed as real good team, 2 losses to them tough, loss to North Texas not real good either.
Why seed: Great record, examples of ability to compete against top opponents sneaks them in, though they will be feeling bubble pressure.
2. Texas: 26-5, 5, 6, Big 12 auto guess
Good: Co-Big 12 champs, 10-3 against top 50, 16 top 100 wins, ridiculous non-conference wins (though not quite as much as Memphis) with wins over Tennessee (by 19 and in NJ), UCLA in LA, St Mary's, and Oral Roberts. 13-3 in conference includes win over Kansas, over Oklahoma twice, Baylor twice, Kansas State, and Texas A&M (split).
Bad: 5 losses more than any other in top 8, bad loss to Missouri. Two double digit losses not great either. Struggled to win games recently.
Why seed: Many big wins, but too many losses to be a #1. Could still move up to a #1 with Big 12 tourney win, probably safe at #2. Might like it more there if go to Houston for regionals in South region.
15. Md.-Baltimore County: 22-8, 91, 270, America East auto guess
In as #1 seed and highest RPI in conference. Currently into finals, will either be them or would be play-in game candidate Hartford. Best win was against American this year.
Made it through? Congratulations.
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