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Could Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Upset Sergio Martinez?

HOUSTON - NOVEMBER 19:  Julio Chavez Jr. with his corner after defeating Peter Manfredo Jr. with  a technica knockout in the fifth round at Reliant Arena at Reliant Park on November 19, 2011 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Bob Levey/Getty Images
Ralph LongoAnalyst IIINovember 28, 2016

On September 15, one of the biggest fights of the year will take place in Las Vegas, Nevada. Sergio Martinez, the true Middleweight champion of the world, will be taking on WBC Middleweight belt-holder Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in what could be a Fight of the Year candidate. 

Their styles should mesh nicely and produce fireworks for the fans on the night of the fight. But the big question is, does Chavez have a realistic chance of beating Martinez, or will it be a one-sided beatdown? 

The story of this fight is going to be whether or not Chavez can use what should be a 15-pound weight advantage on the night of the fight to wear Martinez down. Chavez showed how destructive his power and body shots can be when he fought Andy Lee earlier this ear, but Lee is certainly no Martinez. 

Martinez isn't going to lay against the ropes and exchange with Chavez like Lee did, which gave Chavez the chance to KO him in seven rounds. And people forget Lee was out-boxing Chavez for large stretches of that fight. Lee was up 58-56 on all three scorecards at the time of stoppage, and don't be surprised to see Chavez go down on the scorecards early against the Argentine southpaw.

What this tells me is that there's absolutely no way Chavez wins a decision in this fight. He's going to have to gradually wear Martinez down, going to the body almost exclusively over the first two-thirds of the fight to try and set up a late KO.

Martinez's hand and foot speed, and overall athleticism are going to be really difficult for Chavez to deal with. Does Chavez have a legitimate chance in this fight? Yes, if he can effectively go downstairs early, which won't be easy and he'll have to take a ton of punishment to do so.

Chavez is going to have to do what 99% of fighters won't do, and that is to just accept the fact that if he wants to win, he's going to get busted up pretty badly. And when it gets tough, he'll have to bite down on his mouthpiece and keep going forward and never stop applying pressure.

If Chavez can do that, he's got a real solid shot to pull the upset. If he feels Martinez's power and is discouraged, it's all but over and he might as well call it a night. Either way though, it'll be a really fun fight and I'm looking forward to it.

 

Follow Me on Twitter: @RalphLongo 

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