Tim Tebow: Breaking Down Fantasy Projections for Jets' Star QB
With all of the talk about how much playing time Tim Tebow will get with the New York Jets this season with Mark Sanchez as the starting quarterback, the fantasy projections have been all over the board.
Is Tim Tebow worth a late-round fantasy pick?
Just as he took over for Kyle Orton with the Denver Broncos in 2011, Tebow has the chance to shine when Sanchez inevitably fails in his opportunity to secure the starting job. With his dual-threat ability, there is little doubt Tebow is a must-draft in any deep fantasy football league.
While there is a chance Mark Sanchez turns into a star before the regular season starts, odds are he will remain mediocre and cause nothing but friction in the Jets locker room. With every successful Wildcat play, the calls for Tebow to be starter will get louder.
That’s why I’m predicting a switch to Tim Tebow as the team’s starter when the team plays the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4. After Tebow takes the helm of the team, fantasy players should expect the kind of numbers Tebow put up in Denver last season (somewhere in the area of 130 completions for 1,800 yards.)
If the Jets can get veteran wide receiver Santonio Holmes to buy into the QB switch, the numbers for Tebow might actually spike as he finds a reliable receiver he can bond with.
This is where Tebow will separate himself from the rest of the bottom-of-the-barrel QB options in deeper leagues. While there will be starters available in the later stages of the draft, I’d rather have Tebow than whoever is under center in Miami.
With a whole package of plays to be used even when Sanchez is still the starter, Tebow will rush the ball at least 150 times this season and rack up close to 800 yards. With a solid offensive line and the element of surprise in the Wildcat, those numbers could continue to climb the worse Sanchez plays.
If Tebow does take the starting job away from Sanchez in Week 3, Rex Ryan and the Jets coaching staff will simplify the offense to help Tebow and that means calling more run plays and more option plays. That’s good news for the Tebow fantasy owner.
While the 18 touchdowns last season were far more than most expected him to get, there is little doubt that another year under his belt and the commitment of the team will give the star a chance at 29 in 2012.
With plenty of rushing chances down at the goal line, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the QB have 12 rushing touchdowns at season's end, with at least eight coming from within five yards of the end zone.
That would have the QB throwing for just 17 touchdowns through the air, which would be a disappointment, but not the end of the world. With the receiving group in New York, though, would it really be fair to expect any more than that if he is only a starter for three quarters of the season?
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