CM Punk will defend the WWE Championship against John Cena and Big Show at SummerSlam. All three superstars have held the WWE's top belt multiple times and the extended storyline has allowed for each of them to get built like a title threat.
Even though the creative team would like fans to believe all three superstars have an equal chance of walking away as champion, that simply isn't the case. With that in mind, let's take a look at the chances each competitor has of winning on Sunday night.
Punk has now been the WWE champion for more than 270 days after taking control of the title at Survivor Series last year. The level of success he's had during that time is debatable because there are two different ways of looking at it.
In terms of actually becoming the top guy, it hasn't happened. Cena had remained the top dog with his pay-per-view matches usually earning the main-event slot. But on the flip side, Punk has come a long way over the past year and does make the programming more entertaining.
The result of Sunday's match will give everybody a clear idea of where he stands. Ultimately, I think he's done enough to retain the title. A victory should be the beginning of an even bigger push in the next couple months.
Chance of victory: 80 percent
If the WWE does decide to end Punk's long run, Cena is the most likely choice to replace him. It's hard to believe more than a year has passed since the polarizing superstar has held the title, because he seemed to hold it constantly before that.
The one thing nobody can deny is that he's always reliable. Should the company decide it needs a title change, Cena can be counted on to keep things moving in the right direction and extrude a lot of emotion from the fanbase.
Based on the events at Raw 1,000, it seems like the title picture will include Cena, Punk and The Rock once the Royal Rumble gets closer. So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Cena will win at SummerSlam, but he's still an underdog.
Chance of victory: 19 percent
Despite the creative team's best efforts to make Big Show seem capable of winning the title, it still doesn't have the feel of a plausible scenario. He's never been treated like a top-tier guy before and now isn't an ideal time to start after Punk's long reign.
The entire purpose of making it a triple threat match was to make it appear that Punk had his back against the wall, and what better way to do that than adding the “World's Largest Athlete” to the equation after his recent push.
That said, expect the match to feature a lot of action between Punk and Cena, with Big Show only playing a supporting role. While the WWE Universe has learned to never say never, Big Show's chances are incredibly low.
Chance of victory: 1 percent
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