College Basketball Bubble Watch: March 14

Wow. What else is there to say? Every single bubble team (outside of two A-10 teams and Texas A&M) lost yesterday. By virtue of not playing, Kansas St. and Arkansas move into the tournament. Kentucky most likely will join them tomorrow. The mid-majors are right in the thick of things still as we head into the final weekend of play before Selection Sunday. And I will continue to reward them (ISU, VCU, USA) for playing road/neutral games and finishing high in their respective conferences.

Bubble Watch now will be updated daily.

There are 31 conference winners that receive automatic bids and 34 at-large berths available.

Here are the conferences that will have one bid (19): Memphis (C-USA), Butler (Horizon), Cornell (Ivy League), Winthrop (Big South), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Siena (MAAC), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky), America East, Big West, MAC, MEAC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC and WAC

After the 19 one-bid conferences, there are 36 spots that are “locked-in” for possibly multiple bid leagues:
A10 (1): Xavier
ACC (4): Duke, UNC, Clemson, Miami
Big East (7): UCONN, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Pitt, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St.
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas St, Texas A&M
Colonial (1): George Mason
Missouri Valley (1): Drake
Mountain West (1): BYU
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Wash St., USC, Stanford
SEC (4): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Miss St, Arkansas
Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky
WCC (3): Gonzaga, St Mary’s, San Diego

So that leaves 10 spots for potential at-large teams. Each bubble team has a short statement of how many games it needs to win in its respective conference tournament to receive at-large consideration.

Note: Teams in BOLD are teams that would make the field through March 13 games.

A10
Bubble 4: St Joe’s, UMASS, Dayton, Temple

St Joe’s: Took care of Richmond and can lock up a bid with a win today against X.
UMASS: Tough loss to Charlotte. Not sure their profile warrants an at-large bid.
Dayton: Overall good resume, but injuries will keep the Flyers out of the tourney.
Temple: The Owls keep on winning and still have a chance.

ACC
Bubble 1: Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech: If VT wins today, they might be dancing.

Big East
Bubble 1: Villanova

Villanova: Got smoked by G-town. Pretty good resume, but those conference losses are just a killer.

Big 10
Bubble 1: Ohio St.

Ohio St: Beat MSU in the quarters and the Buckeyes will be dancing.

Big 12
Bubble 1: Baylor

Baylor: Horrible loss last night. Still probably get a bid because of the weak bubble.

Colonial
Bubble 1: VCU

VCU: Double edge sword for VCU. Bubble teams keep losing, which improves their chances, but their best wins (Maryland, Houston), both lost their opening round games. 12-6 road/neutral record also contributes to their bid.

Missouri Valley
Bubble 1: Illinois St.

Illinois St.: Second place in a top 10 RPI league + bubble teams everywhere losing = ISU bid.

Mountain West
Bubble 2: UNLV, New Mexico

UNLV: One win away from locking up a bid.
New Mexico: Tough loss last night in OT. Resume is ok. We’ll keep them on the bubble for now.

Pac 10
Bubble 3: Arizona St., Arizona, Oregon

Arizona St: Horrendous call left the Sun Devils on the bubble. Five wins versus the RPI Top 50 will get them in, though.
Oregon: Good OOC wins. It’s a toss up at the moment.
Arizona: Yet another UA loss and the Cats are now 4-8 their last 12, including two wins over Oregon St. and one against Cal. Are also 0-4 against Oregon and ASU.

SEC
Bubble 1: Kentucky

Kentucky: If UK beats Georgia today, the Wildcats will be a lock tomorrow.

Sun Belt
Bubble 1: South Alabama

South Alabama: Profile isn’t spectacular, but have done enough to warrant a bid.


Last 4 in: Ohio St. (No. 65), Illinois St, Arizona, VCU

Last 4 out: St Joe’s (No. 66), Villanova, UMASS, Dayton

Next 4 out: Virginia Tech, New Mexico, Temple

Next update on Saturday, March 15