Memphis at Disadvantage in Battle for Top Seed

Memphis is in a familiar situation. The Tigers are highly ranked, have an impressive record, and appear to be right in line for a very high seed in the NCAA Tournament.

In the past three years, Memphis parlayed a strong non-conference schedule and dominant runs in Conference USA to No. 1, No. 2 and No. 1 seeds, respectively. This year's Tigers have done it again, though with fewer resume building non-conference wins.

Though victories over Tennessee and Gonzaga are nice to have, the losses to Xavier, Syracuse and Georgetown—which now looks like it won't even make the tournament—only help so much. But Memphis is clearly a different team since its last loss on Dec. 20 to Syracuse, and there's no questioning the Tigers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.

Meanwhile, other teams in the mix for No. 1 seeds continue to stumble. So the scenario begs the question: is Memphis worthy of a No. 1 seed if it continues winning?

It seems like the Tigers are going to need some help. Maybe even a lot of help.

So many numbers are out there that a numerically supported argument can be made for a horde of upper-level teams to be deserving of a No. 1 seed. UConn, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, Michigan State, Memphis, Oklahoma, Louisville, Marquette, Missouri, Clemson and likely several others could potentially put together a fairly sound sensible argument for why they should be given a top seed should things go their way down the stretch (in some cases, this could mean as much as winning out and winning the conference tournament).

That's a far bigger crop of potential top seeds than before when the Tigers were jockeying for a No. 1 seed.

Knowing that, the Tigers are, like it or not, at a disadvantage. Because despite all of the RPI rankings, the Pomeroy Ratings, the Associated Press polls and the strength-of-schedule rankings, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee members are still human. And with humans—unfortunately for Memphis—perception is reality.

Perceptions of the Tigers are arguably more fragile than those of any other team. Big East teams like UConn and Pittsburgh get the benefit of the doubt because they're in "a tough conference full of really good teams." Oklahoma, for example, gets the benefit of the doubt because it has the likely National Player of the Year, and two of its losses came when he was sidelined with a concussion. So when reasons to doubt these teams come about, they have a much less profound impact on they are perceived.

Memphis, however, isn't as lucky. The Tigers don't have a power conference to fall back on. They don't have a long list of tough opponents and a basket full of RPI Top 25 wins. Nor do they have a National Player of the Year candidate. Memphis only has itself.

If Memphis loses a conference game—take Thursday at UAB, for example—the perception of the Tigers will deteriorate substantially. Or if Tyreke Evans and Robert Dozier are suddenly unavailable for a pair of games and Memphis has a slip-up, the perception of the Tigers will again take a substantial hit.

Memphis, at no fault of its own, simply has less to gain and more to lose the any of the higher-ranked teams in the country. Because of such a fragile perception, the Tigers will likely need help from somewhere—likely multiple places—if they want any chance at a No. 1 seed come Selection Sunday.

And with so many times slightly in front, beside or just behind Memphis with legitimate arguments of their own, it appears more likely than not that the Tigers' ceiling doesn't reach any higher than a No. 2 seed.

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