Every team comes into Spring Training with question marks. There’s the hitter coming off surgery, the highly touted prospect expected to fill a big hole, the aging veteran trying to hold on to the glory.
In baseball, spring is the season of “if,” the time of year we take all of our questions, answer them in whichever way best suits our needs, and build them into the lovely state of delusion called hope.
Cardinals fans hope Chris Carpenter will be healthy. Red Sox fans hope David Ortiz can make up for the loss of Manny. Reds fans hope Jay Bruce can be who they hope Jay Bruce can be.
Everybody on this list comes into this season with some type of question mark. Whether it be injury or the heavy weight of expectations, each one of these guys has something to prove—and their teams very much need them to prove it.
One player per position, no team represented more than once.
DH: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
There are two ways you can see this season going for Ortiz:
1. He comes back from last season’s disappointment with a huge “I’ll show you who’s old and fat” chip on the shoulder (or the Spanish equivalent thereof).
2. He’s old and fat and headed toward the Mo Vaughn-with-the-Mets stage of his career. Remember, fat old is older than regular old. His birth certificate may say he’s 33, but that’s like 39 in fat years.
The problem for the Red Sox is they don’t have anybody they can count on other than Ortiz. Manny is gone. J.D. Drew hasn’t hit more than 20 homers or above .300 since he was in Atlanta. Jason Bay was great after coming over from Pittsburgh in the three-way Manny trade, but, let’s face it, he’s no Manny.
The Red Sox missed out on Mark Teixeira, leaving Ortiz as the only established top-tier run-producer on the roster. If they were in the National League West, that would be fine. But in the AL East, it’s not. The Sox are going to need a monster season from Ortiz to be able to keep up with the Yankees and Rays.
1B: Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs
Lost in all the hype about the Cubs’ chase to end their 100-year championship draught last year was the fact Lee seems to have found a new career plateau, and it isn’t all that impressive for a power-hitting first baseman.
First two seasons in Chicago: 1199 AB, 78 homers, 205 RBI
Played just 50 games in 2006 due to a broken wrist
Last two seasons in Chicago: 1190 AB, 42 homers, 172 RBI
Lee is 34 now. His .361 on-base percentage last year was his lowest since 2004. His .462 slugging percentage was his lowest since 1999. And though he’s a three-time Gold Glover, Lee had more errors last season (9) than in any season since 2002.
The Cubs loyalist will argue that Chicago still won 97 games last year and ran away with the NL Central. If Lee’s numbers were good enough in 2008, then the same level of production should be fine in 2009.
Perhaps that’s true. But everything went right for Chicago last year. That rarely happens two years in a row. Whether it’s a step back from Aramis Ramirez or Geovany Soto, the switch from Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa to Carlos Marmol and Aaron Miles, or the unpredictability of Milton Bradley, there is any number of factors that could go wrong.
The Cubs need to be able to depend on Lee to hold up his end of the bargain at the plate. If he can’t, Chicago is going to be in a much tighter race in the Central than most people expect.
2B: Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
Just seeing that name in print has to make Milwaukee fans run for their brats and beer, but there’s no hiding from it: Rickie Weeks must perform if the Brewers are going to maintain their status as NL Central contenders.
The problem is Weeks has kind of … well, he’s kind of sucked so far. He’s hit .235 and .234 the past two seasons, not exactly prototypical lead-off hitter material. He also plays terrible defense.
Without CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, Milwaukee is going to have to win with their offense. Yovani Gallardo is a good looking young pitcher, and you have to like the moxie and leadership of vets Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper, but this isn’t going to be a team that wins a whole bunch of 3-1 ballgames.
With Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart, and Mike Cameron, Milwaukee has the bats to drive home their fair share of runs. But they absolutely need Weeks to be a catalyst at the top of the order.
SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies
Perhaps the biggest disappointment of 2008, Tulowitzki came off a huge rookie season only to tear a tendon in his left quadriceps in April and miss the next 46 games. He came back in late June, but was never the same, finishing with just a .263 batting average, eight homers and 46 RBI.
This year, there’s even more pressure on Tulowitzki to take hold of the mantle of Rockies leader. Matt Holliday was traded to Oakland and Todd Helton’s back will probably never allow him to regain his power. It will be up to Tulowitzki to carry more of the load than any team should rightfully expect of a 24-year-old entering his third season.
Tulowitzki showed by hitting .330 last September that he still has the skills to be a major player in the league. He’s got good protection in the lineup with Brad Hawpe and Garrett Atkins. Now all he needs to do is stay healthy and play ball.
3B: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals
The second overall pick in the 2005 draft, Gordon was selected ahead of guys like Tulowitzki, Braun, Jay Bruce and Jacoby Ellsbury. And all it took was one season in AA before Gordon found himself the starting third baseman on Opening Day 2007.
Unfortunately, Gordon started off that season just one of 22 with nine strikeouts. It seems like he’s been trying to recover ever since. He ended up hitting .247 with 15 homers his rookie year, then .260 with 16 last season.
After watching Tampa Bay reach the World Series last year, and the Rockies the year before that, the Royals have no excuses. The Rays came out of a division with Boston and New York and beat them both. Royals fans certainly have the right to hold their club to the same standards.
With the development of some of the younger pitchers (Zack Greinke is primed for a huge season) and the competent leadership of GM Dayton Moore, there are certainly enough pieces in place to have hope. But it’s not happening without a special season from Gordon.
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer first became known to the baseball public as the guy the Twins took ahead of can’t-miss-superstar Mark Prior in the 2001 draft. At the time, it seemed kind of strange, taking a high school catcher over the stud flamethrower from USC. Then, as Prior was killing the NL Central in 2003 and Mauer was still in AA, it seemed like a downright flub by Twins brass.
Things have changed.
While the eternally injured Prior is just trying to hang on with the Padres, Mauer is coming off his second American League batting title and first Gold Glove as one of the best young catchers in the game.
Unfortunately for the Twins, Mauer is also coming off offseason surgery to remove a blockage in one of his kidneys. He hopes to be back in the action two weeks before Opening Day, but you never know how people will recover from internal surgeries.
There’s a lot of stuff that goes on inside the body when you’re swinging a bat. If everything isn’t exactly perfect, it could have a dramatic effect on Mauer’s swing.
LF: Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s not hyperbole to say the entire Dodgers season hinges on a guy whose only team affiliation right now is the Dominican squad at the World Baseball Classic.
Over the course of the first four-plus months of the 2008 season, LA hit 74 homers, or about 0.7 per game. Then came Manny on August 1 and the Dodgers proceeded to hit 63 homers over the season’s final 54 games, or about 1.17 HR/game, an improvement of 67% in per-game long balls. The Dodgers went from .500 and two out in the NL West to winning the West at six games over .500.
And then the post-season: A .500 average with two homers and five runs scored in the Division Series sweep of the Cubs, then .533 with two homers, two doubles, seven RBI (of the team’s 19 total) and seven walks to just one strikeout in the LCS loss to the Phillies.
The Dodgers with Manny are one of the top few contenders for the NL Pennant. The Dodgers without Manny are just another also-ran in the mediocre NL West.
CF: Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers
In a Spring Training game last March, a pitch from Philadelphia’s Travis Blackley struck Granderson on his right hand, breaking his middle finger.
At the time, the injury really only hit home with Granderson’s owners in fantasy baseball. After all, this was a guy who hit .302 with 38 doubles, 23 triples, 23 homers, 74 RBI and 26 stolen bases in 2007. The term “stat sheet stuffer” was written for this guy.
By the time Granderson got back in late April, the Tigers had started off 0-7 and were mired in the AL Central cellar at 8-13. The pitching was a mess and would be all season. Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez were pressing due to the enormity of their paychecks. Gary Sheffield was off to the worst season of his career (.225). Jim Leyland needed a double lung transplant. It was a mess.
There are certainly players other than Granderson who need to produce if the 2009 Tigers are going to live up to their 2008 expectations. But just like their lineup, everything in Detroit starts with Granderson. He needs to get back to creating havoc with opposing pitchers so the guys behind him can drive him in with a single instead of always feeling they need a long ball to score runs.
RF: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
When Bruce first came up last season, he looked every bit the part of franchise savior. Over his first seven games, Bruce hit .577 (15 of 26) with three doubles, three homers, seven RBI and 12 runs scored. The Reds went 5-2 in those seven games, and things looked like they might just be all right.
But of course there are reasons 21-year-old rookies don’t come up to dominate the Majors all too often. The league will always adapt to you faster than you can adapt to the league. And so after hitting .579 in May, Bruce would finish the season at just .254.
The Reds have been frequently mentioned as potential sleepers this year. Not only do they have one of the best young pitchers in the game in Edinson Volquez, GM Walt Jocketty has gotten back to being one of the best team-builders in the league (loved the pick-up of 2008 stolen bases leader Willy Tavares from Colorado).
Still, even with a lineup with Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion, it’s going to be Bruce who determines the ceiling on the 2009 Reds. If he comes out and swings for the fences, he’ll hit more homers, but he’ll also go through prolonged slumps that will eventually kill his team’s chances at the post-season.
But, if Bruce shoots for the gaps like he did in the minors (88 doubles to 42 homers in 2006 and 2007), then the Reds should be able to wrack up the crooked innings and make a serious push in the Central.
SP: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis has a burgeoning Ace in Adam Wainwright, plus a very good No. 2/3 in Kyle Lohse, a quality No. 4 in Todd Wellemeyer, and a bum at No. 5 in the person of Joel Pineiro*.
(* Seriously, when your own third-base coach is the manager of your national team—Jose Oquendo and Puerto Rico in this case—and he doesn’t pick you for the national squad, what business do you have making 30 starts in the Major Leagues?)
If Carpenter can come back to the top of the rotation, you’ve got Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Bum. If Carpenter can’t complete the comeback, it’s Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer, Bum, Guy Not As Good As Bum.
It’s one thing to have to carry a weak No. 5. You can get around that. But when you have two holes in the back of your rotation, it will inevitably lead to bullpen burnout and a second-half collapse. The Cardinals absolutely need Carpenter to carry one of those front-of-the-rotation spots so they don’t have to depend on somebody like Mitchell Boggs or Mike Parisi to stink for four innings every fifth day.
Closer: Brian Fuentes, Anaheim Angels
The Angels probably made the right fiscal decision to allow Francisco Rodriguez to head off to New York for $37 million over three years (or $51 million for four, depending on performance clauses). That’s a whole lot of coin to spend on a guy who pitched exactly 4.7% of their innings last season (68.3 of 1,451.3).
At the same time, it can be easy to take a great closer for granted. All it will take is a few blown saves by Fuentes to make Angels fans remember just how much it kills a team to lack a capable closer (though it’s been awhile for Angels fans since 1994 and the Joe Grahe Experiment).
Fuentes took less money from the Angels to play in Anaheim, so you know he’s committed to the cause. But if the 32-year-old can’t keep shutting the door like K-Rod, the Angels could very well be haunted by their decision not to overpay for Rodriguez. That’s a lot riding on the arm of a guy who lost the closer’s job in Colorado mid-way through the 2007 season.
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