25 Title Contenders and Their Odds of Wearing UFC Gold

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UFC on FOX 4 is set for Saturday, August 4. The card will be headlined by a pair of light heavyweight contests that will have meaningful implications for the division's title picture.

Maurico "Shogun" Rua will take on Brand Vera for the night's main event, while Ryan Bader will combat Lyoto Machida. It is believed that one of these four fighters will earn a title shot against the winner of Jon Jones-Dan Henderson.

But the list of fighters hopeful for a crack at UFC gold does not end with the four participants taking center stage this Saturday night. On the contrary, the battle for a championship title rages on among countless contenders in each and every UFC division.

Here, we will take a look at the top 25 UFC title contenders and examine their chances of one day scoring UFC gold. 

To keep the list balanced I have included three contenders (and in certain circumstances, more) from each division, as well as a wild-card.

To be eligible for the list, a fighter must be near the top of a divisional ladder, and must not currently be a champion, interim or otherwise. Fighters must also be active UFC competitors.

Odds of success for each fighter are noted at the bottom of each page in ratio format. A 2 - 1 ratio denotes a fighter who would win a title once if allowed to run through his career two times (or one that has a 50 percent chance to win a title), and a 10 - 1 ratio denotes a fighter who would win a belt one time for every 10 theoretical careers (or one with a 10 percent chance of winning a title).

Got it?

Let's begin. 

Cain Velasquez

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In the case of Velasquez, we are looking at his odds of winning UFC for a second time. And we are also looking at some pretty good odds.

It's hard to say that Velasquez isn't too far behind Junior Dos Santos given the result of their first fight, but that result belies Velasquez's level of talent. Make no mistake, a rematch could look very different.

Dos Santos is going to be tough for any heavyweight to dethrone, but no-one in the UFC has a better chance of doing it than Velasquez.

Given Velasquez's strong wrestling, sensational endurance, developing striking and growing wealth of experience, he will be tough to keep out of the champion's club for very long.

His odds are aided by an immediate title shot.

 

Odds: 2.5 - 1  

Alistair Overeem

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Because there is no clear number two contender in the heavyweight division behind Cain Velasquez, it is looking like Overeem will still be near the top of the heap when he returns from his year long, testosterone induced suspension.

Even if he doesn't come back as the number one contender, he will come back as a contender.

The problem for Overeem is that one of Junior Dos Santos or Cain Velasquez will likely have the belt when he returns, and they are both horrible matchups for him.

Like Overeem, Dos Santos prefers to fight standing up, only he has proven he can keep a strong pace for at least three rounds. This is something Overeem has never been capable of during his career. If he doesn't finish Dos Santos in round one, his chances of winning are slim.

When we take that consideration and factor it into a fight with Velasquez, who has better cardio than any heavyweight in the UFC heavyweight division, things look bleak for Overeem.

Still, Overeem is capable of knocking out any opponent quickly, which puts a strict cap on just how long his odds can get.

 

Odds: 6.5 - 1

Fabricio Werdum

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While Daniel Cormier makes sense for this list, his spot on the UFC roster is not a foregone conclusion, even if it is very likely he makes the jump soon after facing Frank Mir under the Strikeforce banner. So for now, we'll go with Werdum as the more immediate contender.

Werdum's chances are not all that great even though he has looked tremendous in recent fights. 

Though his stand-up is much improved, it cannot rival Dos Santos' and probably falls to Velasquez's as well. Of course, he cannot submit anyone in the division, the problem is that he would have a hard time taking any of the top fighters down, and few would make the mistake of taking him down.

Werdum is a great fighter and could work his way to the heavyweight title, it just is not all that likely.

 

Odds: 11 - 1 

*If your wondering about Cormier, I'd put him at about 3 - 1, assuming he joins the UFC roster soon.

Dan Henderson

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Henderson will enter his fight against light heavyweight champion Jon Jones as a decisive underdog, and for good reason. That's no knock on Hendo, it simply speaks to the dominance of Jones. 

Still, because Henderson is at least guaranteed to fight for a title, whereas other light heavyweight contenders are not, he logically has the best chance to unseat Jones of anyone in the field.

Factor in that most other top light heavyweights have already lost convincingly to the champion and Henderson definitely looks like the division's best hope. 

 

Odds: 5 - 1

The UFC on Fox 4 Quartet

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UFC on FOX 4 is set for August 4, and will play a large role in determining the pecking order of the light heavyweight division.

Because Mauricio Rua, Brandon Vera, Lyoto Machida and Ryan Bader can all gain some serious contender status at the event, I've provided a brief synopsis for the title chances of each combatant.

 

Mauricio Rua - Of the four light heavyweights fighting at UFC on FOX 4, Shogun is the most likely to emerge as the division's number one contender. Still, the way he lost to Jones the first time the two met and the fact that his body is breaking down rapidly both factor negatively into his chances.

Brandon Vera - It seems shocking that Vera could gain title consideration even with a win over Rua, but it looks like that is the case. However, unless both Machida and Bader stink it up, a win at UFC on FOX 4 likely will not be enough to garner Vera a second go at Jones (or a first at Dan Henderson).

Lyoto Machida - The best thing for Machida would be a Shogun loss. Well, the best thing next to winning his own fight of course. But even if the perfect scenario plays out for the Dragon, he still has to beat Jon Jones (or Henderson) to recapture UFC gold.

Ryan Bader - Bader has gone from the hot seat to the driver's seat and could now be just one win from a title shot. It's a tall order to fill, however, as Machida marks the toughest opponent of Bader's career, excluding the man he would fight for a second time if he passes his upcoming test.

The projected odds of all fighters are based on the probability of winning at UFC on FOX 4, multiplied by the odds of defeating Jones. Fighter longevity is also factored in.

 

Odds:

Shogun Rua 12 - 1

Brandon Vera 40 - 1

Lyoto Machida 10 - 1

Ryan Bader 16 - 1

Rashad Evans

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Evans edges out Gustafsson for a place on this list (I give the Swede about a 8.5 - 1 shot), though his odds of capturing UFC gold are not all that much better.

Evans' chance would be significant if not for the fact that Jon Jones is poised to have an absolutely dominant title reign at 205. But if anyone can dethrone the champion, Evans might be the guy to do it.

Unfortunately for Evans, he needs to get cracking if he wants his title back. At 32-years-old, he'll have limited opportunities to make title runs going forward. 

A possible drop to middleweight improves Evan's odds by a small margin. If it were more likely that he makes the move, that increase would grow significantly.

 

Odds: 6.5 - 1

Chris Weidman

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Though he may not definitively be the middleweight division's number one contender, Weidman is undoubtedly a strong middleweight contender, and will be for some time to come.

And since no one is locked into that number one spot just yet, Weidman might have a better chance than anyone else at 185. He certainly has the skill set to take the title, even if he lacks the experience.

In the grand scheme of things Weidman's current position in the middleweight pecking order is irrelevant. Whether he has to wait for a title shot—even if he gets one in the near future and loses—Weidman will more than likely be a UFC champion one day.

For this rising star, wearing UFC gold is more a question of "when" than "if."

 

Odds: 1.33 - 1

Vitor Belfort

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An injury forced Belfort to pull out of a match with Wanderlei Silva that reeked of number one contendership, but a win over Alan Belcher still might be enough to earn another crack at Anderson Silva.

Belfort has historically been a very inconsistent fighter so handicapping his title chances is a difficult task. Factoring in that one bad day may permanently wipe away his title aspirations at this point in his career certainly does nothing to improve his odds.

Still, Belfort is one of the few guys in the world who could give Silva a competitive match on the feet, even if the first time he tried was not all that competitive. 

Do you believe in unlikelihood? 

 

Odds: 6.5 - 1

Middleweight Cluster

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There are four middleweights who could conceivably be considered top contenders at this point in time. I have provided a brief note on each and included their respective chances of holding a title below.

 

Michael Bisping - The UFC seems to want to give him a title shot, but he just can't seem to get over the hump. A win over Brian Stann might be enough. But then again, that's just the getting there part.

Alan Belcher - Belcher is a darkhorse for a title shot, should he defeat Vitor Belfort. But even if he doesn't gain status as the division's number one contender with that win, he won't be far off. He is also the youngest guy on this list

Tim Boetsch - Had his win over Hector Lombard been a bit more impressive, Boetsch might be the number one contender right now. As it stands, that is unlikely. But maybe one more win would do the trick.

Brian Stann - Stann has been great at 185. Though it's difficult to envision him dethroning Anderson Silva, a title in the post-Silva era is not inconceivable.

 

Odds:

Michael Bisping: 7.5 - 1

Alan Belcher: 7 - 1 

Tim Boetsch: 16 - 1

Brian Stann: 8 - 1 

Martin Kampmann

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Carlos Condit is the number one challenger to Georges St-Pierre's welterweight title, but he already has UFC gold, even if it is of the interim variety. We therefore have to look beyond Condit to find challengers with less than 100 percent chance of owning a UFC title.

Kampmann is one of the two welterweight names that spring to mind in this scenario. The other, Johny Hendricks, will be Kampmann's opponent this November.

Whoever emerges victorious from that contest will receive a crack at the winner of Condit-St-Pierre, thus significantly bettering his chances of donning a UFC strap. 

For now, the odds for both Kampmann and Hendricks have to be multiplied by the likelihood of winning a number one contender bout, then a championship title fight. At least, that consideration must be made to determine their immediate chances.

 

Odds: 9 - 1

Johny Hendricks

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The other man currently influencing the welterweight title scene is Johny Hendricks, Kampmann's opponent this November.

Hendricks finds himself in a similar situation to Kampmann in terms of ranking, so his odds in relation to Kampmann's is determined by his relative chances of defeating the Dane.

Also weighing slightly into Hendricks' odds is that he is two years the junior of Kampmann, so he will have more time to make subsequent title runs, should the current one stall.

 

Odds: 7.5 - 1

Rory MacDonald

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While Jake Ellenberger may deserve this spot more (I give Ellenberger about 7.5 - 1 odds), I'm going with the young Canadian. MacDonald doesn't stand too far behind Ellenberger as it is, and he has a longer time to makes things happen.

Though a title run is off limits so long as Georges St-Pierre remains the welterweight kingpin, it is difficult to imagine a guy as talented as MacDonald fighting his whole career without once winning a UFC title.

Crazier things have happened, but I believe Ares will win UFC gold sooner or later.

 

Odds: 1.9 - 1

Frankie Edgar

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Can he wear UFC gold once again? And if so, will it be lightweight gold?

Edgar's chances of recapturing a UFC title are increased by the fact that he has to change weight classes. While he is just a win away from being a champion right now, Edgar could alternatively drop to featherweight and challenge Jose Aldo for his crown. 

If he fails to beat Ben Henderson this August and declines a drop in weight, Edgar would remain a threat to begin another run in the lightweight division. 

None of this, however, should imply that getting his gold back will come easy for Edgar. Indeed, a deep lightweight division and a dominant featherweight champion may provide two paths to a title, but neither path is smooth sailing.

 

Odds: 2.8 - 1

Nate Diaz

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Nate Diaz will likely face the winner of Henderson-Edgar II, and will do so with no shortage of momentum.

The younger Diaz has looked outstanding in recent outings against Donald Cerrone and Jim Miller, and has a legitimate shot of donning UFC gold sooner rather than later.

Even so, his upcoming title fight is not the be-all, end-all for Diaz, who at 27, definitely has time to make another run, should this one sputter out.

On the other hand, climbing the UFC lightweight ladder makes Mount Everest look like a medium-sized hill, so he might as well take care of business as soon as possible.

 

Odds: 2.3 - 1 

Gray Maynard

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The lightweight division has a title fight scheduled between Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar, while Nate Diaz is the clear number three. Maynard is the best of the rest.

The Bully has already come within a kitten's whisker of being the UFC lightweight champion on two occasions, but fell short both times. Despite those failings, Maynard remains a viable title contender, and will do so for the foreseeable future.

If you aren't already in position for a title shot in the lightweight division your odds cannot be too great, considering how clustered things are, but Maynard is a terrific fighter and is more likely to hold the gold than many people believe.

 

Odds: 4 - 1 

Erik Koch

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There probably aren't a whole lot of people willing to give Koch a legitimate chance of beating Jose Aldo this October, and considering Aldo's dominance, this is quite understandable. 

But consider this: Koch is 23 years old. 

While many fighters get one title shot in their career, Koch will have plenty of time for subsequent campaigns, should this one fail. The one issue limiting the importance of this is that Aldo isn't all that much older, and if he can stay at featherweight, he may just put a wrench into Koch's seemingly promising course.

Still, Koch is going to factor strongly into the UFC featherweight championship picture for the next decade or so, and the smart money is on him succeeding at one time or another.

 

Odds: 2 - 1

Chan Sung Jung

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When Sung Jung obliterated Dustin Poirier it looked as though he would get a chance to face Jose Aldo. Instead, that honor went to Erik Koch.

Still, the Korean Zombie is likely next in line for a featherweight title shot. And at just 25-years-old, it may not be his last.

While there are many reasons to be optimistic about his chances, as long as Aldo remains the 145 pound champ, realistically they remain relatively slim. 

Why? Because Aldo is just that good. The champ is also a poor stylistic matchup for Sung Jung, who would likely have to best Aldo on the feet in order to take his title.

 

Odds: 5 - 1

Chad Mendes

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Ricardo Lamas is worth consideration, but I think Mendes is still the more relevant title contender at 145 right now.

He is also three years younger than Lamas, which gives him additional time to grasp a strap.

So long as Aldo reigns supreme at featherweight, Mendes will be an underdog to becoming a champion, but he will be among the leaders of that pack of underdogs for the foreseeable future. 

If Aldo has to make the jump to 155 as he ages, the chances of Mendes wearing gold increase exponentially.

 

Odds: 4 - 1 

Michael McDonald

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McDonald is surfacing as one of the best 135 pounders in the UFC, behind Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao. And while the average age of the division's top contenders suggests that no-one will acquire or keep gold without a struggle for some time to come, McDonald will almost certainly get a slice of the pie before he hangs it up.

With what are probably the best hands in the division and a solid set of secondary skills to back them up, McDonald has all the talent required to be a champion. 

And he is 21.

The sky is the limit for this kid, and predicting gold for him feels like predicting the middle of July will be warm in Texas.

 

Odds: 1.8 - 1

Urijah Faber

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Though he has dropped five straight title fights, Faber is still in the mix at 135 pounds. He will likely need to string together a few wins before he gets a sixth try, but it isn't too far-fetched that he indeed challenges for a title once more.

After all, the UFC marketing machine would love a Faber-Cruz III to promote.

At 33 years old, it is unlikely that Faber will be able to tarry en route to a title shot, so if it doesn't happen soon it isn't going to happen at all. 

This all adds up to making long-shot odds even longer.

 

Odds: 20 - 1

Eddie Wineland

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There are Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao with bantamweight titles.

There is Michael McDonald separating himself from the pack.

There is Urijah Faber hanging around near the top of the division.

Then there are the rest. And at this point, I give the nod to Wineland as the best of the rest.

A case could be made for Brian Bowles, but Wineland has looked better of late, even if his last fight only broke a two-fight losing streak.

Wineland has fought very stiff competition in the UFC and has never suffered a blowout. On any given night he is the type of hard-nosed warrior that can defy expectations and upset the balance. 

When we consider his title chances, those odds will take a lot to defy and upset.

 

Odds: 16 - 1 

Joseph Benavidez

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Now that he has an opponent for the UFC Flyweight Grand Prix final, all that is left for him to do is win it.

And he probably will. If not now, then later. Benavidez is too good to not wear flyweight gold in the UFC.

The only thing that prevented him from wearing WEC and UFC bantamweight gold was Dominick Cruz. With Cruz out of the picture the future looks pretty bright for Benavidez.

 

Odds: 1.2 - 1

Demetrious Johnson

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The other half of the Flyweight Grand Prix finale, Johnson also came within one fight of clinching a UFC title at 135 pounds.

Johnson won his way into the tournament final by defeating Ian McCall in a rematch after the two fighters drew the first time out. That win established Johnson as one of the best two fighters in the UFC's flyweight division, but unfortunately, it established him as the second best, not the best.

Still, Johnson has a legitimate chance to be a UFC champion even if he loses to Benavidez in their September showdown. At just 25-years-of-age, this shot is unlikely to be his only one.

 

Odds: 3 - 1

Ian McCall

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If the UFC Flyweight Grand Prix has a third place the honor definitely belongs to McCall. Though the bronze medal is only theoretical, it is a feather in his cap that might be enough to warrant a title shot once the dust from the tournament is all settled.

In his two fights against Demetrious Johnson, McCall proved that he is right up there when it comes to UFC flyweight talent. The only question is whether he is a title threat, or just someone good enough to warrant title consideration.

Time will tell on this one, but it's not too difficult to picture a UFC belt around McCall's waist, even if it's hard to picture Joseph Benavidez without one around his.

 

Odds: 5.5 - 1 

Nick Diaz

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And the wild card.

Diaz wants Anderson Silva, and he might get him. If not, he may alternatively be able to work his way towards another welterweight title shot.

Neither option guarantees success, but both provide intriguing career paths for the elder Diaz.

Defining Diaz's title chances is slippery business because his spot in the UFC ranges from imminent title threat to back of the line in a completely different division. 

I'll ballpark here, but until a little more information about his return drops, it'll be a shot in the dark.

 

Odds: 7 - 1