When UFC President Dana White recently announced that the winner of Saturday night's main event bout may be in line for a title, fans and analysts alike were left scratching their heads—mostly at the possibility that Brandon Vera may get the nod.
Vera, who was once one of the UFC's biggest prospects, has only won one fight since 2009 and is the heavy underdog against former champ Mauricio "Shogun" Rua. While anything can happen in MMA, the chances of Vera coming out victorious at UFC on FOX 4 are slim.
"The Truth" has had trouble in the past with high level strikers and is severely mismatched against Rua standing up.
Prior to his recent win over Eliot Marshall, Vera was soundly beaten down by Muay Thai specialist Thiago Silva at UFC 125 and would have been cut by the promotion had Silva not falsified his urine sample.
Even before that bout Vera was completely dominated by the current champ Jon Jones, another telling sign that "the Truth" just can't hang with the upper echelon of the division.
Does Vera have a shot against Shogun?
Rua, a Top Five 205-pounder, is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and will likely overwhelm Vera with his powerful kicks and punches. Vera's only real shot at beating Rua is if he takes the fight to the ground, an unlikely feat due to "the Truth's" underwhelming ground skills.
And with this fight most likely staying standing, Vera really doesn't stand a chance. Unless Rua comes into this bout out of shape—a very unlikely occurrence due to the possible title shot for the winner—it will take a miracle for Vera to get the win.