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The team most likely to face Team USA in the final game is Spain.
Spain would seem to have the best frontcourt in the tournament with Pau and Marc Gasol along with Serge Ibaka. They have a solid backcourt in Rudy Fernandez and Jose Calderon. But the spark of their team is "La Bomba," Juan Carlos Navarro, who scored 27 points in their EuroBasket victory over France.
When Spain has the ball, I believe that Team USA will figure out a way to slow down La Bomba on the wings. It will probably take Andre Iguodala to do it. But I think that Spain's frontcourt on offense will cause Team USA to quickly accumulate personal fouls, and I don't like the centers that will have to play when Tyson Chandler sits. Kevin Love can be great in scoring and rebounding, but I don't think he can be effective on defense against Spain.
On defense, I can see Spain packing the box and forcing Team USA to shoot from the outside. Team USA will start to get antsy, then Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant will gladly oblige and throw up a few bricks at critical times in the game.
Team USA will have competitive Pool A games against France and Argentina, and maybe Lithuania for a half. On the other hand, Spain will probably only break a sweat in one game, against Brazil, in Pool B. Therefore, we can expect Spain to enter the medal round a little bit more rested than the USA team.
I am going out on a limb and say that Spain will win the gold medal, in a buzzer-beater shot from Marc Gasol.