AFC South Tweetbag: The Colts Don't Play Chicken with Andrew Luck

Nate DunlevyGuest ColumnistJuly 19, 2012

Luck signs everything but his contract.
Luck signs everything but his contract.Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

Welcome to the Tweetbag! As always, you can tweet, email or send your questions to me in the comments section of the articles. Be sure to use the hashtag #tweetbag!


A: In between the time I wrote my answer to this question and the time this piece was published, Andrew Luck signed his deal. I still like my answer, so I'm running it anyway. Plus, the video was hilarious, and I want to use it.

Plus, I was right. So there's that.

Let me make two comments on the Luck contract situation. The first is this: it doesn't matter. Contract stories always make a big splash this time of year, because the media loves to stir up class envy with pieces that imply it's foolish for a bunch of rich guys to argue over a few million dollars here and there. 

There's also the fact that there's nothing else to write about, so we are all desperate for anything that will move the needle. Beyond that, there's nothing to any of this.

Luck will sign on time.

Secondly, the issue goes beyond just Luck and RG3. Most of the top eight picks are still unsigned. The hope is that Robert Griffin's deal will broker movement in that direction, but honestly, with camp just a week away, everyone was about to sign anyway.

If nothing else, now that it's done, the Colts have less excuse than ever to hammer out the details. Everyone knows what Griffin got, so Indy needs to make sure it offers just a little more.

That is, of course, unless they are chicken.



A: I feel like I've answered this question on more than a few occasions this summer, so this time, let me factor in the receiving value of not only the wideouts, but the tight ends and the running backs too.

I've been going with the Titans as the answer to this question, but Kenny Britt's surgery dampens my excitement considerably.

If you throw tight ends into the equation, Jared Cook of Tennessee still comes out on top.

With running backs in the mix, the Houston Texans get a major lift. Arian Foster is an outstanding pass-catcher, posting a DVOA of 18.6 percent last season—good for 14th in the league and better than any other back in the division. Chris Johnson was below average.

In terms of total pass weapons, I'm still leaning Titans, but if Andre Johnson is healthy all year and Kenny Britt is now, I can see Houston taking the crown.

The Jaguars actually stand to gain ground on both, but it might not show because of Blaine Gabbert's limitations.



A: This question is always a moving target. Foster is projected by most to have the strongest season, and that's influenced heavily by Maurice Jones-Drew's hold out.

The dark horse, of course, is Chris Johnson. The Britt surgery probably won't be enough to make the Titans go run-heavy, however.

If Jones-Drew misses any camp time at all (and I don't think he will), the answer will remain Foster.



A: Here's a great question.

If the Titans or Jaguars start off slowly, the opportunity presents itself for a quarterback change.

Honestly, though I think Henne would make a big difference to the Jags, they are committed fully to Blaine Gabbert. Their bye week comes in Week 6, and that's fairly early. Gabbert would have to be beyond bad in order for Henne to take over by then.

After the bye week, it will only be more difficult to make a change.

The Titans have a bye week in Week 11. If the team isn't 4-6 or better, I'd expect a change to be made then. The first six weeks are brutal, and if Matt Hasselbeck does indeed start the year as quarterback, the Titans have to win at least two of the first six games to cling to life in 2012.

That's a tall order, and I think the odds are better that they stumble than they are that Jacksonville quits on Gabbert. Pulling the plug on him would be a definitive declaration that he is not the Jaguars' quarterback going forward.

He's going to get the entire year to prove he can do it.