The calendar is closing in on the trade deadline quicker than ever.  With many surprise teams in and out of the playoffs, the league and its fans can expect many moves to be made by the numerous general managers.

The Ottawa Senators are one of those surprise teams that are not in the playoffs this season.  Just two years out of being the Eastern Conference Champions, the Senators are flirting with the possibility of having the number one overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.  Although Victor Hedman or John Tavares in a Sens’ uniform may sound intriguing to GM Brian Murray, the team needs to turn things around quickly.

The Senators’ cap hit this season is about $53.28 million, with about $3.42 million in cap space; enough to make some significant moves.  With the two top money-making players having no-trade clauses, management needs to look elsewhere if they are hoping to cut costs.  If they do not mind taking in a couple million more, though, there are endless possibilities.

Today, we take a look at the Senators’ roster, analyze their strengths and weaknesses, and determine what moves need to be made and where.


(Numbers represent 2008-2009 cap hit; NOT actual salary)

(In US $millions)

Offense

Dany Heatley- 7.5

Jason Spezza- 7.0

Daniel Alfredsson- 4.414

Mike Fisher- 4.2

Antoine Vermette- 2.763

Chris Kelly- 2.125

Jarkko Ruutu- 1.3

Chris Neil- 1.1

Christoph Schubert- 0.883

Dean McAmmond- 0.875

Nick Foligno- 0.850

Shean Donovan- 0.600

Jesse Winchester- 0.550

Cody Bass- 0.512

Ryan Shannon- 0.605

 

Trade Bait

Some disgruntled fans would suggest trading one of the top two players in Heatley or Spezza, yet Heatley has a no trade clause.  Spezza's no trade clause does not kick in until July 1, 2009, so if Ottawa hopes to move him, they must move quickly.  I, however, do not see them moving either of their core players.

Alfredsson would be the next likely candidate to fans.  He is performing exceptionally well, but he is indeed getting up there in years, and perhaps his performance cannot keep up through the end of his contract.  But could the Sens really move their cornerstone captain?

Mike Fisher is making a heckuva lot of money for only contributing 19 points thus far in the 2009 season.  With over $4 million counting against the salary cap, perhaps the Senators could find a taker for Fisher.  The problem, of course, will be finding a team willing to pay a lot of money for a mediocre player, and also getting Fisher to waive his no-trade clause.

Chris Kelly will not be a UFA for a few more years, so perhaps the Senators’ organization will attempt to move him and the $2.125 million paycheck that comes with him.

Chris Neil could be possible trade bait, considering he has been hampered by injuries this season.  Perhaps a team looking for experience and that one tough guy for their fourth line could pick up his million dollar tag.

 

Prospects

The Senators do not have many great offensive prospects, which is most likely why they are going to be sellers at this year’s trade deadline.  They do have a young Russian named Ruslan Bashkirov who had a dominant year in the QMJHL in 2007, but has since returned to Russia.

Louie Caporusso came from a well-known hockey program in St. Michaels, and has developed quite well at the University of Michigan.

Cody Bass has been on the Senators’ roster for the last couple of seasons, yet he has been injured for the majority of the season.  Look for him to stay, though, as he has potential on their second or third line.

Trading any of their prospects would most likely be a bad mistake, seeing how they need to stock up on prospects to be consistently successful in the upcoming years.

 

The verdict

If a team is willing to take on the price tag, Mike Fisher will be moved.  Hoping to get a capable forward or defensive prospect for Fisher, Brian Murray will negotiate all he can to squeeze other teams for all they are worth.  Do not expect captain Daniel Alfredsson to be traded unless Murray has a nervous breakdown on March 3rd.

Most likely, look for Mike Fisher, Chris Kelly, and/or Chris Neil to be moved by deadline day.

 

Defense

Chris Phillips- 3.5

Filip Kuba- 3.0

Jason Smith- 2.6

Anton Volchenkov- 2.5

Brian Lee- 1.25

Alexandre Picard- 0.800

Brendan Bell- 0.500

 

Trade Bait

Chris Phillips will and always has been trade bait for the Senators.  Unfortunately for the organization, he has a no trade clause until his contract runs out in the 2011 summer.

Filip Kuba’s age is slowly becoming a factor, but he is having a great year as far as offense goes with over 20 assists at this point in the season.

Jason Smith was signed last offseason, and although his stats do not show his helpfulness, he is a great player in the defensive zone, and a wonderful leader in the locker room.

Anton Volchenkov could be looked at as a bust, being a first round draft pick in 2000, but he is still extremely young, and the Senators can still count on him to be a bit of a help in the defensive zone.  However, he seems like the most likely possibility to be traded.

 

Prospects

The Senators have very few defensive prospects.  Geoff Waugh seems to be a likely candidate to make the team in another few years, having spent much time in the ECHL and AHL in the Ottawa organization.

Erik Karlsson, the first round pick last season, had a breakout year with Frolunda HC last season and is continuing his hot streak, yet he is one of those players that the organization has to consider untouchable for now.  He could very well be a top defenseman once he breaks into the league.

 

The verdict

The Senators do not have much to trade on defense, considering that their farm system has not produced any help to them.  However, Anton Volchenkov and Jason Smith would be the most likely candidates if they had to move players.  Look for their defensive corps to remain the way it is, for now.

 

Goaltenders

Alex Auld- 1.0

Brian Elliot- 0.942

 

Trade Bait

Alex Auld is having a breakout season with the Sens, and is playing better than anyone expected.  After the release of Ray Emery and reassignment of Martin Gerber, the Senators finally found a goalie to hold them over until prospect Brian Elliot can become a regular NHL starting goaltender.


Prospects

The Senators have no goaltending prospects other than Brian Elliot, who is in the NHL.

 

The verdict

No goaltenders will be traded or traded for, as this is the one position the Senators seem to be set at.

 

Who will the Senators target come trade deadline time?

 

1) Any team mid conference with cap space

The first teams that come to mind are the Buffalo Sabres, Phoenix Coyotes, Vancouver Canucks, and Columbus Blue Jackets.

Everyone has their doubts about the Coyotes, because of their financial woes.  They are on the verge of the playoffs, but management may not be able to afford any more salary numbers with their tight budget.  That almost immediately takes them out of the running for anyone on Ottawa’s squad.

The Sabres have  a very talented young player in Nathan Gerbe that Darcy Regier may be willing to let go in exchange for a good defenseman.  However, the Senators may not have the player that Regier is looking for.

The Canucks have a talented young forward in Kyle Wellwood that both Toronto and Vancouver have not been able to tame.  Wellwood has great potential, but neither team has been able to pull it our of him.  Alex Burrows is also a young, potential first or second line winger who has been extremely productive for the Canucks.

On defense, Alexander Edler is a 22-year old Swede who can do wonders with the puck, and someone that Ottawa could desperately use on their blueline.  Kevin Bieksa also has great talents that the Senators could trade for, and the Canucks would not have salary cap problems for Bieksa.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are chock full of potential young players who the Senators could trade for, including Derick Brassard, Jakub Voracek, Nikita Filatov, Alexandre Picard, Maksim Mayorov, Fedor Tyutin, and more.

However Scott Howson, being an extremely intelligent GM, may look at the majority of those players as untouchables, hoping to keep them for the future of his team, considering how well they are performing this year.

 

2) Thomas Hickey

Thomas Hickey of the Los Angeles Kings may be considered a hot prospect by GM Dean Lombardi and the LA management, but he is someone the Senators most likely would want to have in their locker room.

A first round pick in 2007, Hickey has had nothing but success in major juniors, and is most likely NHL ready next season.  Perhaps Ottawa could send the Kings a fairly good forward or “now” defenseman, such as Anton Volchenkov, Chris Kelly, Antoin Vermette, Mike Fisher, or even Daniel Alfredsson.

If the Sens did offer Alfredsson to LA for Hickey, they most likely would want another part in the deal, such as a high draft pick or another young, talented player.

 

3) Any other willing team

With the people that the Senators can/will be willing to trade, they do not have enough time to pick and choose.  They have a few high priced players who they need to move, while other teams may not want to give up the assets in young players and draft picks that Ottawa demands.

The Senators will most likely lose whatever trades they make at first glance, yet in a few years, if they can draft and develop the players they receive, they may look like geniuses.  Turning a mediocre $4 million player into a talented young rookie making less than $1 million is often knows as brilliance in sports.

 

So there you have it, an analysis and prediction of events leading up to March 4.  Best of luck to Brian Murray, who will have some tough decisions to make in the front office.

 

Alan Bass is a Senior Writer for Bleacher Report and the Community Leader for the NHL and Philadelphia Flyers’ section; a writer for TheHockeyWriters.com and Insidehockey.com, he is also the co-host of NHL 2Day, a weekly radio show on Youcastr.com.  You can contact him at ALN424@aol.com.