Fantasy Baseball 2012: Using AccuScore Projections to Break Down 12-Player Trade
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For the last three months, I've been breaking down AccuScore's projections for categorical leaders in baseball.
But today, we'll use the AccuScore system to objectively gauge my blockbuster trade from Saturday morning—a six-for-six mega-swap in the Sports Illustrated & Friends league (12 teams, roto-style).
Here are AccuScore's projections, covering July 13-Sept. 30 only, for all 12 trade participants:
(Note: This trade went down before anyone caught wind of Giancarlo Stanton's knee scope and subsequent two-to-three-week absence from the Marlins lineup. Honorably, Owner B then offered me a chance to swap Stanton for another player later that day...but I opted to stay put, waiting for the opportunity to profit from Stanton sometime around Aug. 1, if not sooner.)
Team A (Yours Truly) Receives:
2B Brandon Phillips, Reds
AccuScore projections: 8.3 HR, 33.2 RBI, 42.3 Runs, 6.1 Steals, .270 BA
2B Jason Kipnis, Indians
AccuScore projections: 9.4 HR, 37.3 RBI, 44.6 Runs, 15.1 Steals, .263 BA
OF Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins
AccuScore projections: 10 HR, 25.5 RBI, 23.6 Runs, 2.3 Steals, .249 BA
3B Adrian Beltre, Rangers
AccuScore projections: 13.2 HR, 44.9 RBI, 41 Runs, 0.8 Steals, .298 BA
SP Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals
AccuScore projections: 7.7 Wins, 68.1 Strikeouts, 2.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
RP Addison Reed, White Sox
AccuScore projections: 1.1 Wins, 33.7 Strikeouts, 3.25 ERA, 16.1 Saves
Team B Acquires:
2B Jose Altuve, Astros
AccuScore projections: 3.6 HR, 19.3 RBI, 37.6 Runs, 11.5 Steals, .269 BA
SS Elvis Andrus, Rangers
AccuScore projections: 0.9 HR, 23 RBI, 40.8 Runs, 14.8 Steals, .263 BA
OF Mike Trout, Angels
AccuScore projections: 12.3 HR, 39.8 RBI, 57.6 Runs, 24.7 Steals, .320 BA
1B/3B Chris Davis, Orioles
AccuScore projections: 9.3 HR, 26.6 RBI, 27.9 Runs, 0.8 Steals, .246 BA
SP Lance Lynn, Cardinals
AccuScore projections: 8.4 Wins, 90.1 Strikeouts, 3.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
1B Tyler Moore, Nationals
AccuScore projections: 3 HR, 9.8 RBI, 9.9 Runs, 2 Steals, .269 BA
I'm currently in fifth place in the SI.com & Friends league (76.5 points), 20.5 points behind the first-place club. Before the 12-player swap, my star contingent comprised of Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Elvis Andrus, Buster Posey, Albert Pujols, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Shin-Soo Choo, Jake Peavy, Mat Latos, Chris Perez and the injured Brandon Morrow (DL spot).
On the good side, I have a top-four ranking in runs, batting average, steals and wins; on the mobile front, I have the opportunity to move up in homers, strikeouts, wins and ERA.
1. It sounds like blasphemy to part with Mike Trout (12 HR, 40 RBI, 57 RBI, 26 Steals, .341 BA) during a scalding-hot streak of five-category goodness; but with healthy leads in runs and steals, it was time to convert Trout's clout into six quality pieces that address homers and RBI on offense and saves, strikeouts and wins on the pitching end. Besides, I still have McCutchen and Gonzalez anchoring my league-best outfield.
2. The middle-infield upgrade of Brandon Phillips/Jason Kipnis over Elvis Andrus/Jose Altuve should yield a greater return in homers, RBI and runs, with negligible differences in batting average and steals. Speaking of which, I had to double-check AccuScore's batting-average projection for Andrus—.263 from this point forward seems awfully low.
3. Assuming I can stay within striking distance of first place over the next 25 days, I'll gladly take Giancarlo Stanton's 10 homers and 25.5 RBI.
4. AccuScore envisions great things for Lance Lynn in the coming weeks, projecting him for 8.4 wins (No. 7 overall) and 90.1 strikeouts (18th among pitchers); that said, I'd still prefer Jordan Zimmermann's four-category projections from this point forward.
5. With Chris Perez (24 saves), Frank Francisco (18 saves) and Addison Reed at closer, I now have the necessary ammo to rise from eighth to fourth in the save standings.
6. After Trout, the next-best projections belong to Beltre, Kipnis, Lynn and Brandon Phillips.
7. I may have landed the bigger names in the 12-player blockbuster; but from a projections standpoint, it appears to be an equitable swap.
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
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