Want To Win a Super Bowl? Sign These Guys

So back before the Super Bowl a few weeks ago, ESPN's Bill Simmons was having a chat.

 

He was going through the motions of debating who he would pick to win the game, Arizona or Pittsburgh.

 

And during this chat, Simmons kept on comparing the offense-defense match-up between the Steelers and Cardinals to the Ravens-Giants Super Bowl of 2001.

 

I was trying to point out that the whole season had been a giant mirror to the 2002 season that ended with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers thrashing the Oakland Raiders 48-21.

 

I finished my submission with these words, “DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS! Why are we even talking about this?”

 

(Yes, I did use all caps. I’m not proud of it, but I did what I did and I’m not afraid to admit it.)

 

But then I got to thinking? Does defense really win championships? Or is this just one of those clichés that we’ve all come to accept, but one that isn’t really based in reality?

 

So I decided to do a little bit of research. And thanks to the wonderful archive of stats available on nfl.com, I was able to compare each Super Bowl participant’s finish in offense and defense, then see if there were any trends regarding dominant offensive teams playing dominant defensive teams.

 

Here’s what I found (updated with Pittsburgh’s win):

 

Going back to the merger in 1970 (SB V), I compared the two Super Bowl participants against each other, seeing who ranked higher in each of four categories: points scored, yardage gained, points allowed, and yardage allowed.

 

 

* The best scoring defense went 27-11 (Eagles and Patriots finished with identical points allowed total in 2004, so not counted)

 

* The best yardage defense went 27-12

 

* Teams with best scoring defense AND best yardage defense went 22-7

 

 

Compare that to the dominant offensive teams coming into the big game:

 

 

* The best scoring offense went 23-15 (Redskins-Broncos in 1987 finished tied in scoring offense, so not counted)

 

* The best yardage offense went just 18-21

 

* Teams with best scoring offense AND best yardage offense went just 16-13

 

(Seven of those 16 wins came in a seven-year streak during the 90s: the Aikman-Irvin-Smith Cowboys twice, the Elway Broncos twice, the Young-Rice 49ers, the Favre Packers and the Warner-Martz Rams; Teams in this category are just 2-5 since the 1999 Rams.)

 

 

To take it a step further, what happens when you have one team with the defensive edge playing against a team with the offensive edge?

 

Since 1970, a dozen Super Bowls have featured one team who lead the other in both offensive categories, while the other team led in both defensive categories.

 

The teams with the defensive advantage are 8-4.

 

(In case you’re wondering, the “four” in that 8-4 are the 1976 Madden-Stabler Raiders over the Tarkenton Vikings, the 1989 Montana-Rice 49ers over the Dan Reeves-Elway Broncos, the 1998 Mike Shanahan-Elway Broncos over the Chris Chandler-Jamal Anderson Falcons, and 2005 Manning Colts over the Grossman Bears. Not surprisingly, two of the four anomalies featured two of the biggest QB disparities in Super Bowl history.)

 

So what does it all mean?

 

DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS!

 

(Maybe not always, but pretty damn often.)

 

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So now that I’ve written the longest lead-in to a free-agency column ever, let’s get back to what matters now, the decisions NFL coaches and executives will be making over the next few months in filling their rosters in pursuit of competing in Super Bowl XLIV next February in Miami.

 

Here are a selected group of defensive players available this offseason and a few teams who should be picking up the phone when free agency officially begins next week:

 

(Note: I’m mentioning teams who actually have a shot to land these guys. The Bengals could obviously use everybody on this list, but their owners are cheap and dumb; therefore, they won’t sign any of them.)

 

(That’s kind of harsh. But any team that wouldn’t franchise TJ Houshmandzadeh is cheap. And any team that turns down two first rounders for Chad Johnson is dumb. Harsh? Yes. But it’s true, God damn it.)

 

 

Tennessee DT Albert Haynesworth

 

The seven-year veteran will bring an instant infusion of nasty into a defensive line. He’ll scratch, claw or stomp on your face, anything to collapse the pocket and kill the dude with the ball. Haynesworth will be just 28 in June, so he should be a safe sign for a five-year deal.

 

A team like Washington, with an owner who has deep pockets, loves the big name signing, plays in a huge media market and happens to really need a top-level DT, makes a whole lot of sense.

 

Seattle would also be a good fit, as would be Tampa, New Orleans and Detroit.

 

(I can see Jim Schwartz making a huge play here; signing Haynesworth would instantly restore some credibility to the Lions. Now whether Haynesworth would sign in Detroit is another matter entirely.)

 

 

Carolina DE Julius Peppers

 

First thing’s first, Peppers is a 4-3 DE. He may be talking about a 3-4 OLB spot, but would you really spend the kind of dough it would take to land Peppers just on the hope he would convert well to a linebacker? It’s not like he’s incredibly well suited to a 3-4 DE spot if the OLB switch doesn’t work out. It’s just too big of a gamble.

 

So, now that we’ve got that settled, what does Carolina do with Peppers? If they’re able to sign OT Jordan Gross in the next few days, they could assign the franchise tag to Peppers, at least preserving their ability to gain some form of compensation for losing him. But if they’re forced to use the tag on Gross, then Peppers is free to walk to anybody with pockets deep enough.

 

As with Haynesworth, Washington is always an option when it comes to high-priced free agents. Tampa could really use him to replace the aging Kevin Carter opposite Gaines Adams. Oakland would also be interesting, as would be Kansas City, who sorely needs to replace the explosiveness off the edge they lost when they traded Jared Allen.

 

 

Dallas DE Chris Canty

 

Like Ty Warren in New England, you’ll never look at the stat sheet and marvel at Canty’s numbers. But the 3-4 end is more like a 4-3 tackle. His job is to hold the line, fill the gaps and allow the linebackers to penetrate and make the play. In that respect, Canty is one of the better, if unknown, available players at the position.

 

Of all the free agents on the market, this one is probably the easiest to call: Canty is going to Miami. Dolphins boss Bill Parcells drafted Canty while he was still in Dallas, and he’s a much better fit for the Dolphins’ scheme than Vonnie Holliday, who could very well soon find himself on the unemployment line.

 

 

Baltimore LBs Terrell Suggs, Bart Scott, and Ray Lewis

 

These guys are inextricably linked to each other, so I might as well group them in one category.

 

Suggs is the obvious top dog in this bunch, so I would think he would be Baltimore’s top free agency priority (along with center Jason Brown).

 

Scott feels more like an Edgerton Hartwell to me. Of the three, he seems like the biggest risk and least likely to succeed outside of Baltimore (unless he signs with the Jets and Rex Ryan).

 

As for Lewis, I’ve gone on record saying I think Dallas should go after him. But I think the smart move for Lewis would be to stay right where he is. He’s got the rare chance to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer who only played for one team. Even if it means a million or two less in salary, he should stay in Baltimore.

 

Here’s betting Suggs and Lewis stay in Baltimore and Scott moves up I-95 to join Ryan with the Jets.

 

 

Chicago S Mike Brown

 

There’s a reason why the Bears were always so devastated when Brown got injured. It’s because he was a team leader, a super-tough safety and one of the smartest players on the field.

 

Brown certainly carries some injury risk, and, at 31-years-old, wouldn’t be somebody you would want to give long-term dollars. But if he’s willing to sign for a few years, a team like New England, Denver or Houston would benefit greatly from his presence in the defensive backfield. (Houston in particular. That would be a great signing on their part.)

 

 

Miami LB Channing Crowder

 

It appears clear the Dolphins are going to allow Crowder to walk, which is good news for some LB-needy team out there. Crowder is somewhat of a loose cannon (witness his punch-out with Matt Light last season), but he brings energy and fire to a defense.

 

As an inside linebacker in the 3-4, Crowder could be a good fit with the Jets in place of Eric Barton (an unrestricted free agent), the Browns (Andra Davis an unrestricted free agent), or Denver and Green Bay, two teams in need of linebackers to complete the conversion from a 4-3 to a 3-4.

 

 

New Orleans LB Jonathan Vilma

 

We’ve learned about Vilma that he is not a 3-4 linebacker. He belongs in the middle of a 4-3 defense and nowhere else. Unfortunately for Vilma and other 4-3 MLBs, the 3-4 is more and more becoming the preferred defense in the NFL, leaving fewer and fewer jobs for guys like Vilma and Jacksonville’s Mike Peterson (another UFA).

 

If I’m the Saints, I’d just franchise Vilma and make sure he stays in New Orleans. But if the Saints don’t force him to stay, teams like St. Louis, Jacksonville (because they will not be bringing back Peterson) or Minnesota (Napoleon Harris a UFA) would do well to sign Vilma.

 

 

Philadelphia S Brian Dawkins

 

Dawkins is certainly entering the final chapter of his career, turning 36 this coming October. But if Philadelphia doesn’t bring him back, he’s a quality two- or three-year signing that could provide a final piece to a near-championship-level defense.

 

New England, with its penchant for signing quality veterans and giving them very specific roles, would be a great fit.

 

 

St. Louis S O.J. Atogwe, Houston CB Dunta Robinson, and Oakland CB Nnamdi Asomugha

 

I group these guys together because their respective teams would be absolute fools not to franchise them. Each is by far the best defensive back on their team, and each team's defense is sorely lacking in qualified defensive backs.

 

If any of these guys hit the open market, thye're going to instantly be involved in a bidding war with half of the league.

 

 

DE Igor Olshansky

 

Olshansky, a second-round pick out of Oregon in 2004, isn’t a household name outside of Southern California, but he’s been a starter on a Chargers’ defensive line that has been one of the best in the league for as long as Olshansky has been involved.

 

With a reputation as a streaky player who disappears for stretches, you wouldn’t go breaking the bank for Igor, but he’s huge (6-6, 310), incredibly strong and a great fit as either a 3-4 end or perhaps even a 4-3 tackle.

 

Cleveland under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan would be a good fit (in style and attitude), as would Denver and Green Bay.

 

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The above list is far from complete. There are a ton of other quality free agents available at every level of the defense, some even better than the guys I listed.

 

You’ve got linebackers Karlos Dansby (Arizona) and Michael Boley (Atlanta).

 

You’ve got safeties Sean Jones (Cleveland), Lawyer Milloy (Atlanta), Reed Doughty (Washington), Jim Leonhard (Baltimore), and Darren Sharper (Minnesota).

 

And you've got corners like Leigh Bodden (cut by Detroit), Chris McAlister (just cut by Baltimore) and Kelvin Hayden (Indianapolis).

 

You saw the numbers at the top of this column. Offensive juggernauts may be pleasing to the fantasy eyes, but defense wins NFL Championships. There are plenty of available players.

 

Now teams just have to be willing to make the investment in signing them.

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