Wimbledon 2012: Post-Tournament Ranking Scenarios for Novak Djokovic and All

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Wimbledon 2012: Post-Tournament Ranking Scenarios for Novak Djokovic and All
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images

There are only three matches left to be played at Wimbledon 2012. In one semifinal, Roger Federer will face Novak Djokovic, while in the other semifinal, Andy Murray will face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The World No. 1 ranking is on the line in the tournament as Federer can replace Djokovic on top of the ATP rankings. In order to do that, Federer would have to win the semifinal and the final. Under all other scenarios, Djokovic would remain No. 1. 

Here's a breakdown of what each player stands to gain or lose in the final two rounds at Wimbledon in terms of ranking points:

Djokovic:

  • 2000 ranking points to defend based on his title from last season.
  • If he went out in the semifinals, he would turn a net loss of 1280 ranking points and become the World No. 2 if Federer won the tournament.
  • If Djokovic lost in the final, he would turn a net loss of 800 ranking points, but he would remain No. 1.
  • If Djokovic won the title, he would not lose or gain any ranking points and he would remain No. 1.

Federer:

  • 360 ranking points to defend based on his quarterfinal appearance last season.
  • If he went out in the semifinals, he would turn a net gain of 360 ranking points and he would become the World No. 2.
  • If Federer lost in the final, he would turn a net gain of 840 ranking points and he would become the World No. 2.
  • If Federer won the title, he would turn a net gain of 1640 ranking points and he would become the World No. 1.

Murray:

  • 720 ranking points to defend based on his semifinal appearance last season.
  • If he went out in the semifinals, he would not gain or lose any ranking points and would remain the World No. 4.
  • If he lost in the final, he would gain 480 ranking points and would remain the World No. 4.
  • If he won the title, he would gain 1280 ranking points and would remain the World No. 4.

Tsonga:

  • 720 ranking points to defend based on his semifinal appearance last season
  • If he went out in the semis, he would not gain or lose any ranking points and would remain the World No. 6.
  • If he lost in the final, he would gain 480 ranking points and he would be the World No. 5.
  • If he won the title, he would gain 1280 ranking points and he would be the World No. 5.

Regardless of the results at Wimbledon, Tsonga cannot be ranked higher than fifth in the world after Wimbledon. Murray cannot be anything except the World No. 4. David Ferrer can drop down to sixth depending on how Tsonga does. Nadal will be the World No. 3. Federer or Djokovic will be either the World No. 2 or the World No. 1.

This is what the rankings would look like on Monday if Djokovic were to beat Murray in the final, the result that is most probable if one went by betting odds:

  1. Novak Djokovic  12280
  2. Roger Federer  9795 
  3. Rafael Nadal 8905 
  4. Andy Murray 7460
  5. David Ferrer 5430
  6. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 5230
  7. Tomas Berdych 4515
  8. Janko Tipsarevic 3280
  9. Juan Martin del Potro 3180
  10. John Isner 2620

This is what the rankings would look like if Roger Federer defeated Andy Murray in the final:

  1. Roger Federer 11075
  2. Novak Djokovic 11000
  3. Rafael Nadal 8905
  4. Andy Murray all other ranking points and rankings as above

If Tsonga won the title, he would be close to Murray, but still ranked below him. If Murray won the title, he would be within 700 ranking points of Nadal.

Note: all calculations are to my best abilities and all rankings are unofficial until updated by the ATP.

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