Projecting the Regular Season for the New England Patriots
By (Analyst) on July 28, 2012
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With training camp under way and preseason games around the corner, the football season is in full preparation mode as teams gear up for the regular season.
With no lockout in this season, teams have had ample time to reconfigure, repair and reload their rosters, and the New England Patriots are no different.
Despite another excruciating loss to the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, the Patriots remain one of the truly elite teams in the NFL, and with new stars in Brandon Lloyd joining the team, Tom Brady and Co. will look to reach the Super Bowl again this year but this time win it all.
However, before they talk about Super Bowls and playoffs, they must meander through the regular season. Sixteen games against 13 different opponents will bring anger, joy, despair and excitement to the Patriots and their fans.
Here's how I project the Patriots regular season to play out.
Game 1: At Tennessee Titans
Brandon Lloyd will make his Patriots debut against the Titans
Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
The Pats kick off the season with a visit to play Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans are a team with quite a few questions marks over them as they start their second year after the Jeff Fisher era.
With uncertainty surrounding the starting quarterback situation as well as everything about Chris Johnson, the Titans seem set for a transition year as they build around young offensive players in Jake Locker and Kenny Britt.
Most Patriots fans will remember the last time these two teams faced off, with New England destroying the Titans 59-0 during a classic Foxborough snowstorm. Tom Brady threw for six touchdowns that day as he, Randy Moss and Wes Welker put on a clinic in the snow.
This year's Patriots team is a lot stronger than that team, and I fully expect them to have their way in Tennessee.
With the Titans losing star corner Cortland Finnegan in free agency to the St. Louis Rams, Brandon Lloyd is all set to have a great debut game. The Titans are no longer a great defensive team following Jeff Fisher's departure, and Tom Brady will be raring to go against a weak defense.
The Pats defense should also have a good day as they will most likely be going up against the fairly inexperienced Jake Locker. Rookies Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Jake Bequetter will have a great chance to shine against the Titans. The key for the Patriots will be stopping Chris Johnson and the Titans' run game, something that I feel Vince Wilfork and Co. should be able to do very well.
Projected Final Score -
New England 31 - Tennessee 14
Game 2: Arizona Cardinals
Shutting down Larry Fitzgerald will be the key for the Pats
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
Another game against a team in transition, the Patriots should have no troubles getting past the Arizona Cardinals in their home opener.
Since the retirement of Kurt Warner, the Cardinals have gone from Super Bowl participants to mediocre team very quickly. With last year's big signing--Kevin Kolb--failing to live to expectations, the Cardinals are set for another five to six win season this year.
The key in the game for the Patriots will simply be to shut down Arizona's all-pro receiver Larry Fitzgerald. As the majority of the Cardinals' offense flows through Fitzgerald, taking him out of the game will go a long way to determining the result. Facing Fitzgerald will be a great test for the Patriots' secondary, in particular former Pro Bowler Devin McCourty.
McCourty, who struggled greatly last year, is looking to bounce back and reclaim his Pro Bowl form, and a matchup against Fitzgerald will be a great test to see where he is in his development.
On offense, the Patriots should have their way against an average Arizona defense. Despite featuring stars such as corner Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals defense should give little resistance to Brady and his array of weapons. The Cardinals were among the worst at defending tight ends last year, so expect Gronkowski and Hernandez to have big games.
Projected Final Score -
New England 38 - Arizona 20
Game 3: At Baltimore Ravens
Lee Evans' infamous drop
Rob Carr/Getty Images
A rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game should be one of the best games of the NFL season and will most likely be the toughest game the Patriots play in the regular season.
A real rivalry has developed between the two AFC powerhouses over the past few years with players and coaches getting involved. Everything from the Baltimore Ravens' stunning demolition of the Patriots in the 2009 playoffs, to the Tom Brady-Terrell Suggs beef, the Pats' great escape to maintain a perfect season in 2007, John Harbaugh's comments on Spygate to last season's epic playoff match, Patriots-Ravens games have been entertaining affairs to be sure.
Traveling to Baltimore is never easy and facing a bitter and determined Ravens team will be extremely tough for New England.
The Ravens defense has typically been a tough opponent for Brady, and even with Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs likely to miss this game, I don't see the Patriots' offense faring well in this one.
On defense, the Patriots struggled against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game, needing a Lee Evans drop to save them from elimination. With Joe Flacco and the Ravens at home, expect the Ravens to come out gunning much like they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers in their opener last year.
This is the toughest game the Patriots will play all season and unless Brady has a vintage game, this could get bad quickly.
Projected Final Score -
New England 17 - Baltimore 24
Game 4: At Buffalo Bills
Brady had one of his worst games ever against Buffalo
Rick Stewart/Getty Images
Following a tough trip to Baltimore, the Patriots will travel again to play at Buffalo, the scene of one of their most embarrassing defeats.
In one of Tom Brady's worst games as a Patriot, the Pats blew a 21-0 lead and lost their 15-game unbeaten streak against the Bills, who ended up winning 34-31.
After throwing four picks all of the 2010-11 season, Brady threw four picks in just over 20 minutes as the Bills stunned the unprepared Patriots.
This time around the Patriots will be ready as the Bills have been one of the big spenders in the offseason. In signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson to go with Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, the Bills boast arguably the best defensive line in all of football. The reason for the huge expenditure on the defensive line is simple--to get past Brady and the Patriots.
Despite the big signings, Belichick and Co. shouldn't have too many problems in dispatching the Bills as he and Brady will make sure last year's upset was a fluke.
As Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to fling the ball around, this will be a great test for the Patriots' defense. This should be the game where the Pats' revamped pass rush steps up and causes multiple turnovers harassing Fitzpatrick.
Projected Final Score -
New England 41 - Buffalo 21
Game 5: Denver Broncos
Brady and Manning will continue their rivalry in Round 5
Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Game five gives us the 10th matchup between the two best quarterbacks of the modern era in Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. But this time, things will be a little different as Manning will not be wearing an Indianapolis Colts uniform but a Denver Broncos uniform.
Manning, who missed all of last season due to neck surgery, will most likely be working off the rust come Week five, but he will be ready to take on his No. 1 nemesis--the Patriots.
Luckily for Tom Brady and the Patriots, they had a lot of experience playing the Broncos last year, once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. Both times Brady and Co. shredded the Broncos' defense to the tune of 41 and 45 points, with Brady throwing for eight touchdowns and just one interception.
Even with Manning at quarterback, I foresee a similar result in this year's fixture, especially with the Broncos losing defensive coordinator Dennis Allen and Manning most likely still a little rusty from his absence from the NFL.
Denver had no answer to the Pats' offense last season, and with former Broncos star receiver Brandon Lloyd playing on the Patriots this time, things could get ugly for the Broncos.
Manning has had success against the Patriots defense of late, and I expect him to have similar success this time around. However, I doubt he will be able to keep up with Brady and the Pats offense for too long.
Projected Final Score -
New England 41 - Denver 27
Game 6: At Seattle Seahawks
Nate Solder and the Pats O-Line will have their hands full in Qwest Field
Geoff Burke-US PRESSWIRE
A trip to Seattle is never an easy thing, first there's the cross country flight and then there's playing in arguably the loudest stadium in the NFL in Qwest Field.
Seattle enters this year with a large question mark regarding their quarterback situation as newly signed Matt Flynn will battle out veteran Tarvaris Jackson for the starting gig.
Flynn who signed a three-year, $26 million deal has only started two games in his career, but in those two games he threw for over 700 yards and nine touchdowns. That's a lot of money to give for a backup, so I imagine the Patriots will be taking on a Matt Flynn led Seahawks team.
Most Patriots fans will remember Flynn when he started in place of Aaron Rodgers for the Green Bay Packers and almost beat the Patriots two seasons ago. Luckily for the Pats, Flynn will not have Green Bay's offensive weapons and defense with him in Seattle.
Instead he will have an under performing offense around him that may get even weaker with star running back Marshawn Lynch facing a possible suspension.
With few weapons and an inexperienced quarterback, the Pats' defense should have no trouble with the Seahawks, and the offense should move the ball well against an average defense. If the Patriots can shut out the noise, they should be fine.
Projected Final Score -
New England 28 - Seattle 17
Game 7: New York Jets
Tom Brady has figured out the Jets defense
Greg M. Cooper-US PRESSWIRE
The first Patriots-New York Jets matchup will take place in Week seven, and as always, there will be a lot of talk surrounding this game. With the Jets making the biggest move of free agency, by publicity standards, in signing Tim Tebow, the noise around this game will be even greater.
The Pats-Jets rivalry has gone up another level since Rex Ryan took over as head coach and took the fight straight to the Patriots, boasting "he isn't here to kiss Bill Belichick's ring." After the first two seasons in which the Jets held a 3-2 record against the Patriots, it seemed as if Ryan had made the Jets the dominant team in the division.
However, the Patriots easily won both games last season as Tom Brady seemed to figure out exactly how to attack a Rex Ryan defense, and Pats fans should expect more of the same this season.
While Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow may dominate the headlines, Brady will dominate on the field and the Patriots should roll to victory here. Remarks such as the ones made by Darrelle Revis and the always inflammatory Antonio Cromartie will keep this a rivalry off the field, but on the field the Patriots will be too good.
Projected Final Score -
New England 35 - New York 17
Game 8: At St. Louis Rams
Josh McDaniels will return to St. Louis in Pats colors
Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Patriots' last game before the bye may as well be a bye to them as they face the lowly ranked St. Louis Rams. The Rams, who have been among the worst teams in history as of late, will again be in rebuilding mode as the Jeff Fisher era begins in St. Louis.
After a promising 7-9 finish two seasons ago, the Rams fell back into mediocrity last season finishing 2-14, tied for worst in the league. The Josh McDaniels-coordinated offense finished last in the league in scoring, a big reason why he is in New England this year.
Sadly for Rams fans, things won't be much better this year as Fisher and Billy Devaney are cleaning house and starting anew.
Last season, the Rams had one of the worst run defenses in the league, and that's exactly where the Patriots should attack them in this game. With young running backs Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen ready to go, this will be a good game for them to prove themselves while giving Brady and the passing attack an easier game.
The Patriots failed to develop a consistent running game last season, and using games like this to develop running patterns and tactics will be useful in the long run.
This should also be a straight forward game for the defense. Going against the worst offense from last season will allow the Patriots to feature the younger players like Chandler Jones and Jake Bequette.
Projected Final Score -
New England 38 - St. Louis 10
Game 9: Buffalo Bills
Brady has owned the Bills at Foxborough
Elsa/Getty Images
Following the bye will be the Patriots second game against the Buffalo Bills, one that I expect will be very similar to the first game.
Up until last season's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots had won eight consecutive games following the bye week and they should start a new winning streak against the Bills.
Giving Belichick two weeks to prepare against you is never a good thing for a team, throw in the fact that the Patriots have already played the Bills earlier in the year and this will almost be a guaranteed win for the Pats.
As long as they don't get complacent during the week, this game should follow a similar script to most Patriots-Bills games over the past few years.
This will be a great time to evaluate how the younger players have developed and if changes need to be made for the stretch run.
Projected Final Score -
New England 31 - Buffalo 17
Game 10: Indianapolis Colts
Could Andrew Luck be the next Tom Brady?
Joe Robbins/Getty Images
Once the biggest fixture in the NFL regular season, this year's Colts-Patriots matchup won't have quite the hype it used to have with Peyton Manning now in Denver. However, with Andrew Luck now controlling the Colts offense, there will be a certain level of intrigue when he faces off against Brady.
Luck, who many regard as the greatest quarterback prospect of all time, has drawn comparisons to Brady with his play on the field especially in the pocket.
Despite the presence of Luck, the Colts are arguably the least talented team in the league and are firmly in rebuilding mode. This matchup may end up being one of the premier games in the future as Luck develops, but for now there is massive disparity between the two sides and the Patriots should stroll to victory in this one.
Projected Final Score -
New England 38 - Indianapolis 13
Game 11: At New York Jets
Could Tebow be the Jets starting QB against the Pats?
Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images
The second game against the Jets promises to be a much harder fought battle than the first one. In the New Meadowlands Stadium, the Jets should come out ready to play as this may turn out to be a must win game for them.
This could also be a game that features Tim Tebow starting at quarterback instead of Mark Sanchez, something that will definitely be interesting to follow. Expect more trash talk from the Jets side as well, particularly if the stakes are as high for them as I expect.
Regardless of the situation of the Jets or who their starting quarterback will be, the Patriots should pull this out. As I pointed out before, Brady and Belichick have figured out how to properly attack a Rex Ryan-defense, something that they couldn't do in Ryan's first two years as Jets head coach.
With Brady on his game, the Jets offense will struggle to keep up no matter who is at quarterback. This will be a good game to judge the Patriots defense on especially if the Jets rotate quarterbacks.
Projected Final Score -
New England 27 - New York 17
Game 12: At Miami Dolphins
If the Pats can limit Bush, they should stroll to victory.
Winslow Townson/Getty Images
The Patriots first game against their division rival sees them travel south to the always tough game at Miami.
While the Dolphins may be in rebuilding mode following the firing of Tony Sparano and the drafting of Ryan Tannehill, they always give the Patriots a tough game down in Miami. I'm sure most Patriots fans remember the stunning loss in 2004.
This is also the team that started the Wildcat faze and decided to unveil it against the Patriots in 2008, so be prepared for anything when the Patriots face the Dolphins.
Provided nothing extraordinary happens, the Patriots should be strong favorites in this one. The last time these two faced off in Miami, Tom Brady threw for a franchise record 517 yards as he, Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski shredded the Dolphins defense.
While Brady won't throw for 517 yards this time around, the Patriots should still find it easy to move the ball against the Dolphins' defense, and with a rookie in control of the Dolphins' offense, the defense should have an easy day at office as well. With Brandon Marshall leaving for Chicago, Reggie Bush is the only real weapon the Dolphins have, so you can expect the Patriots' gameplan will involve stacking the line against him.
Taking out Bush won't be easy, but it will go a long way in deciding this game.
Projected Final Score -
New England 31 - Miami 10
Game 13: Houston Texans
Brandon Spikes' defense will be crucial against the Texans.
Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The Monday Night Football matchup between the Texans and Patriots has all the makings of a classic game. With both teams loaded with talent and great coaching staffs, this could very well be a preview of a future playoff game.
Last season, the Houston Texans finally stepped out of the Colts' shadow and qualified for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, finishing with a 10-6 record. The Texans then beat the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card before falling to the Ravens. They achieved all of this despite missing their three best players, Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, for the majority of the season.
While Williams has departed to Buffalo, Schaub and Johnson will be back and the Texans could possibly have a juggernaut of a team this season. Keep in mind they still have Arian Foster and Ben Tate on offense all to go with one of the best defenses in the league led by All-Pro Brian Cushing.
Both of these teams are expected to run away with their divisions, so home field advantage in the playoffs could be up for grabs for the winner of this game.
As for the game, I foresee trouble for the Patriots. Wade Phillips' defense is exactly the type of defense that Brady has struggled against over his career. The Texans excel at getting pressure on the quarterback with the trio of JJ Watt, Brooks Reed and Connor Barwin always in the backfield.
On defense, the Patriots will have their hands full trying to stop Houston's dominant run game. In Arian Foster, the Texans have one of the best, if not the best, running back in the game and throw in Ben Tate and Houston's excellent zone blocking scheme, Vince Wilfork and the boys on defense will have it step it up a notch. Brandon Spikes could be the key player for the Pats defense as his run defense against Foster and Tate will be crucial.
Not to be forgotten is Andre Johnson on the outside. The 6'3'' beast of a receiver will give McCourty and the Pats' secondary headaches all day unless the pass rush can get to Schaub.
Projected Final Score -
New England 17 - Houston 24
Game 14: San Francisco 49ers
Randy Moss will return to Foxborough this time in a 49ers uniform.
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
A short week couldn't come at a worse time in the season for the Patriots as they will have to face the San Francisco 49ers on short rest. The 49ers, who were a special teams mistake away from reaching the Super Bowl, will look to do one better this time around.
With a revamped receiver corps featuring old friend Randy Moss as well as Super Bowl nemesis Mario Manningham, the 49ers should be a much more explosive offense this season as Alex Smith, Vernon Davis and Co. look to rebound from a disappointing performance in the NFC Championship Game.
The 49ers' strength, however, is their lights-out defense which features all-pros Patrick Willis, NaVarro Bowman, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith. The 49ers' defense was arguably the best defense in football last year, not giving up a rushing touchdown until Week 16 against Seattle.
With Willis and Co. flying around, Brady will have to be at his best if the Patriots wish to avoid consecutive losses. Luckily for the Patriots, the 49ers' secondary isn't anywhere near as good as their front seven, so Brady should look to hit Lloyd and Welker early and often.
On defense, the Patriots' main priority will be to take out Frank Gore and the running game. Despite the overhauling of the receiving corps, Alex Smith is still an average quarterback at best, and the more he throws, the better for New England.
It will be crucial for New England that they play from in front against the 49ers, since you wouldn't the 49ers defense gunning for Brady knowing that he'll be throwing. If they take the lead and force Alex Smith to throw the ball, things will be made a lot easier for the Pats defense.
Projected Final Score -
New England 27 - San Francisco 17
Game 15: At Jacksonville Jaguars
Brady could be on the bench early against Jags.
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
Following two physical, hard fought games going up against Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars will seem like practice for New England.
The Jaguars seem to have no direction for their football team as they put together mediocre season after mediocre season, and this year doesn't look any different.
While the Jaguars have a few interesting pieces on offense in Maurice Jones-Drew and Justin Blackmon, the rest of the team poses no real threat to the Pats. Brady should have his way against a Jaguars defense that lacks any playmakers.
On defense, New England will go up against one of the worst passing attacks in the NFL which should allow them to focus on Jones-Drew. Jones-Drew who easily led the league in rushing last season, is the key for the Jaguars offense, and if the Patriots can shut him down, they will easily win the game.
Projected Final Score -
New England 41 - Jacksonville 13
Game 16: Miami Dolphins
As long as something like this doesn't happen the Pats should be fine.
Bob Levey/Getty Images
The regular season finale sees New England face division rival Miami.
The season finale is always interesting to watch as Coach Belichick's decision to rest players or not will certainly be analyzed. Ever since Wes Welker's devastating injury in Houston three years ago, Patriots fans have been very nervous over Tom Brady and the team's star players playing extended time in what could be a meaningless game.
If the Patriots have the No. 1 seed wrapped up hopefully Belichick plays the starters in the first half and gives the backups the rest of the time. It's always an interesting topic to discuss as resting the starters the whole game could give the Patriots starters too much rest, something that clearly affected the Green Bay Packers last season.
Regardless of the situation involving the amount of snaps taken by the starters, this should be a straightforward game for New England. Miami as examined before is a team in transition with a rookie quarterback and no real playmakers on either side of the ball. The plan should be to score often and early and then take out the starters for the remainder of the game.
Projected Final Score -
New England 31 - Miami 20
Final Results
Win McNamee/Getty Images
Based on my projections I see the Patriots finishing 14-2 and clinching the No. 1 seed for the playoffs.
Hopefully, they reach the Super Bowl with a different result this time!
Add your comments below and let me know how you think the Pats will go this season.
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