Rafael Nadal is out of Wimbledon 2012 at the hands of Czech player Lukas Rosol. That result not only gives Rosol a chance to barge over dozens of players in the ATP rankings, but it promises to send Rafael Nadal on a ranking slide.
Nadal entered Wimbledon 2012 as the second-ranked player in the world; however, he will exit as the World No. 3. As of June 25th, these were the men's rankings for the Top Four complete with their ranking points:
These were the points each player had to defend at Wimbledon 2012 entering the tournament:
- Novak Djokovic, 2000
- Rafael Nadal, 1200
- Roger Federer, 360
- Andy Murray, 720
This is what the rankings might plausibly look like at the very top of the ATP following the post-Wimbledon update:
- Novak Djokovic, 12280 (repeat champion)
- Roger Federer, 9795 (semifinalist)
- Rafael Nadal, 8905 (2nd round exit)
- Andy Murray, 7460 (Runner-up)
Even if Federer were to suffer an upset loss before the semifinals—something that is possible—there are no scenarios where he would not surpass Nadal in the rankings. Additionally, even if Murray were to win the title outright, he cannot rise up to the World No. 3 ranking at this point.
There are scenarios where Federer could regain the top ranking on tour, however, those seem improbable at this point—especially based on how close Fed came to losing to Julien Benneteau in the third round.
Basically, Federer would have to win the title to become the World No. 1, as that would see Djokovic out in the semis (or earlier). Even if Djokovic went out in the next round, Federer could not become the World No. 1 following Wimbledon without winning the title outright.