Player option calculus is typically exceedingly simple: If a player's option is worth more than a basic estimation of their market value, the player in question will almost always take their option and the guaranteed money that comes along with it. If a player's basic market value exceeds the value of the option, the player has to make a slightly more difficult decision in weighing the good of their team, the desire to remain with said team, and the likelihood that a free agent suitor can both provide a good fit and good coin.
Jordan Farmar did himself the favor of evading the latter scenario with two years of good-not-great play for the New Jersey Nets, and yet according to Howard Beck of The New York Times, Farmar is still likely to decline a $4.3 million player option for next season:
Even [after drafting Tyshawn] Taylor, the Nets will have just six players on the roster for next season. That total will soon drop to five. Jordan Farmar intends to opt out of his contract by Saturday night, according to a close associate.
I'm not quite sure I understand. Farmar is a decent—albeit limited—reserve guard, capable of both initiating basic offenses or sliding over as a spot-up shooter. That's all well and good, but even in an iffy free-agent class, he likely isn't worth $4.3 million this season and isn't likely to warrant a lengthy deal.
I suppose the bird in the hand must be worth a mid-level exception deal in the open market bush...or something to that effect. You know logic is failing when even colloquial sayings are unraveling.
Regardless, this is quite a break for the Nets, who can now use an extra $4 million+ in their spending spree this offseason. Even if Deron Williams does opt to sign with Brooklyn, the Nets will undoubtedly need some of that extra cap space to surround him with more useful players than they've had recently, and to flesh out a roster that's been stripped bare in order to accommodate a potential free-agent bonanza.