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Wimbledon 2012: Updated Men's Odds Following Rafael Nadal's Shocking Upset

Alan RubensteinAnalyst IIIJune 27, 2015

Wimbledon 2012: Updated Men's Odds Following Rafael Nadal's Shocking Upset

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    Lukas Rasol’s shocking upset of Rafael Nadal in the second round will have a major impact on the Wimbledon draw.

    Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are on the top half of the draw and Nadal and Murray the bottom. The cavernous hole in the bottom half of the draw gives Murray a golden opportunity to become the first British man since 1938 to reach the final at Wimbledon. 

    The reconfigured odds were up quickly. Despite being on the same half of the draw, it should come as no surprise that Djokovic and Federer are the overwhelming favorites to capture the 2012 Wimbledon title. 

    Oddschecker.com lists about 20 websites with the updated Wimbledon odds.

Novak Djokovic 1-1

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    Djokovic is listed as an almost even favorite to capture his fourth Grand Slam title in the last five major tournaments. Ten of the sites list him as a less-than-even favorite and the longest odds for him are just 113-100 to capture his second consecutive Wimbledon. 

    Most of the seeds remain in Djokovic’s quarter of the draw. He will play Radek Stepanek in the third round. His toughest outs remain Juan Monaco and Nicolas Almagro, should they advance. He has not lost a set through the first two rounds. 

Roger Federer 2.5-1 to 3-1

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    Federer remains the No. 2 choice to win on Centre Court a week from Sunday. His odds range from 2.5-1, to 3-1. He has cruised through the first two rounds, dropping only nine games. 

    Federer will face Frenchman Julien Benneteau in the third round. If the seeds hold, he would meet Fernando Verdasco and Janko Tipsarevic in the fourth round and quarterfinals. 

Andy Murray 9-2 to 32-5

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    Murray is now listed as the third favorite. His odds are as low as 9-2 and as high and as high as 32-5. Murray probably benefits more than anyone from Nadal’s loss.

    The Brit fans have pulled hard in the past for stars likely Murray and Tim Henman to reach the finals at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. 

    Murray and Nadal would likely have met in the semifinals. Murray’s quarter of the draw is the toughest; Marcos Baghdatis awaits in the third round. Milos Raonic or Marin Cilic is his likely opponent in the fourth round, with Andy Roddick, David Ferrer or Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters.

    If he can get through that minefield his likely semifinal opponent would be...

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 10-1 to 14-1

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    The odds go up significantly after Murray. Tsonga’s odds are between 10-1 and 14-1. He plays Lukas Lacko (now probably known as the other Lukas) of Slovakia in the third round.

    His fourth-round match will likely by 10th-seeded American Mardy Fish. Should he be able to win those two matches, he would get the survivor of the gigantic hole left open by Nadal’s loss. 

Rosol, Del Potro and Raonic

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    Another fall-off occurs after Tsonga. Del Potro is listed as the fifth favorite. His odds are between 22-1 and 43-1. 

    The up-and-coming Raonic is as low as 18-1 and as high as 50-1. 

    Rosol, who had never won a ATP tour match on grass before the current season, has the same 18-1 and 50-1 range. 

The Field

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    The remaining 33 players have odds as high as 3,000-1 for Jerzy Janowitz to 50-1 for David Ferrer, Roddick, Gasquet, Baghdatis, Cilic and Fish.

    David Goffin is also an interesting player to watch. The Belgian reached the fourth round at the 2012 French Open before losing to Federer. He won the first set against the all-time king of the slams before losing the final three sets. 

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