Day 4 of action from the All England Club will feature an important second-round match between two players who each have a chance to do some damage at Wimbledon this season.
Milos Raonic is considered a peripheral favorite at SW19. He will face Sam Querrey of the United States, a player who I think is a little below the radar at this point in his career.
Querrey enters Wimbledon as just the 64th ranked player in the world. However, in my view the ranking does not properly reflect the 25-year-old's potential in the Wimbledon draw.
Querrey has been enjoying increasing success on tour recently and, leading up to Wimbledon, the American made a run to the London Queen's Club semifinals before losing in three sets to eventual champion Marin Cilic.
When Querrey is playing well, he is a player who cannot be taken lightly on grass. The American made the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2010.
If he bests Raonic, then Querrey may find himself playing on the second Monday once again— with a possible third round match looming against Cilic or Lukasz Kubot.
But Raonic, the odds-on favorite in round two, will not likely be a pushover in their second- round match. The Canadian is coming off of his best French Open effort to date and, with a win against Querrey, Raonic would also set a personal best for Wimbledon.
Additionally Raonic seemed to be a dangerous player at ATP Halle a couple weeks ago, where he won two matches before losing to Roger Federer in a third set tiebreaker.
The Canadian's game appears to be well-suited for grass as his bombing serve can make him incredibly difficult to break. However, Querrey stands 6'6" and he's no slouch with the serve either—a circumstance that has to make one think this match could feature long sets ending in tiebreakers.
There is no head-to-head history between these two players to examine, but Raonic still looks a little over-rated in the match. I do think he's properly considered the favorite.
However, I think bet365's odds of -450 (2/9) on Raonic to win straight up make him too heavy of a favorite.
In my books, the Canadian is only about a -225 (4/9) favorite, due to the fact that he has turned in some surprising losses this season. The recent losses to Federer are excusable, as Raonic is still developing, but the Canadian has recent losses to both Albert Montanes and Florian Mayer—two players I think Sam Querrey outclasses.
If the Canadian is not playing his best, then Querrey could pull off the mild upset. Bettors should be looking to back the American on game handicaps.
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