2012 NBA Draft Order: Odds Every Pick Will Be Traded on Draft Night

Jay WierengaCorrespondent IJune 25, 2012

2012 NBA Draft Order: Odds Every Pick Will Be Traded on Draft Night

0 of 29

    The NBA draft and trades.

    Two things that are inextricably linked.

    Every year, a team decides to get clever and trade their picks. Sometimes it works out for both teams, like when Chris Webber was dealt for Anfernee Hardaway. But more often than not, it is lopsided.

    Who can forget the Hornets dealing Kobe Bryant for Vlade Divac, or Chicago dealing LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas.

    So what are the odds that each of this year's first-round picks will be dealt?

    Here are my educated guesses.

No. 1, New Orleans Hornets

1 of 29

    Chances of being dealt: less than five percent.

    Anthony Davis is as close to a sure-fire NBA star that this draft has to offer. Therefore, it would take a huge package to land this pick.

    As of now, nobody has emerged as even a laughable trade partner.

    This won't happen.

No. 2, Charlotte Bobcats

2 of 29

    Chances of being dealt: 25 percent.

    Michael Jordan has proven to be a fairly inept basketball executive.

    That being said, he would be unwise to not listen to trade offers.

    Portland really likes Bradley Beal, and if Jordan could get them to throw in their second lottery pick, he would have to take it.

    That being said, nobody else seems like a likely partner, and Jordan is, of course, inept as an executive.

    Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity.

No. 3, Washington Wizards

3 of 29

    Chances of being dealt: 30 percent.

    Now things are getting interesting.

    Provided Charlotte takes Beal, things heat up for Washington.

    Do they bring in a wing like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and acknowledge that they are giving up on Chris Singleton? Or do they take Thomas Robinson and his limited offensive game?

    This is where a deal would come in handy. Portland remains a player if Beal is still on the board.

    Otherwise, the price might be too steep considering who is available.

No. 4, Cleveland Cavaliers

4 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 15 percent.

    Cleveland has some holes all over their roster, and therefore they probably can't go wrong here. If MKG is still here, he is a no-brainer.

    They don't really need another power forward, so Thomas Robinson is the only player that would be tempting to use as trade bait. But Harrison Barnes could be an option here, as could Andre Drummond.

    The Cavs need upper-echelon talent, and trading down won't help them.

No. 5, Sacramento Kings

5 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 10 percent.

    While the Kings have some talent, they also have some considerable holes. Additionally, they really haven't decided on what to do with Tyreke Evans.

    This makes them a dangerous team.

    That being said, who could be available at No. 5 that would really prompt another team to move up?

    There won't be a run on point guards yet, so that's safe. There are plenty of big men still here, and there isn't likely to be a big slip amongst the top five.

    Additionally, the Andre Drummond market will start to get hot starting at six, not five.

No. 6, Portland Trail Blazers

6 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 40 percent.

    Now things start to heat up.

    Portland has two lottery picks, so they could either package the two for a higher pick or fill their myriad holes with these two picks.

    The smart money is still on them using both picks.

    But this is where the Andre Drummond market will take shape, and if Portland isn't in love with him, they could dangle him as bait.

No. 7, Golden State Warriors

7 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 25 percent.

    Golden State, like Sacramento, has a lot of holes.

    They also don't seem to have a coherent plan.

    They don't really need a point guard or an off guard as Steph Curry and Klay Thompson look good together.

    They have some good size up front, so they aren't really big players for Drummond.

    Besides, I'm sure they are sick of big-men projects by now.

    The only way Golden State deals this pick is if Harrison Barnes is off the board.

    Barnes would be a great fit in Golden State, and if he's gone they might trade down.

No. 8, Toronto Raptors

8 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 20 percent.

    Okay, so Toronto has some issues.

    For the better part of their existence, they have been treated like the NBA version of a farm club, raided by bigger markets and sexier locations for all of their marketable talent.

    They seem to have some options in their frontcourt, but they haven't fully settled on their backcourt.

    Is Jose Calderon the point guard of their future? His deal expires after this upcoming season.

    Could this be where Damian Lillard comes off the board as the first point guard?

    Regardless, there really isn't a sense of urgency for any team to move up here given the talent pool.

No. 9, Detroit Pistons

9 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 50 percent.

    The Pistons need to get this draft right.

    Each of the last two drafts, the team was able to add crucial rebuilding pieces.

    But progress has come slowly, and they have some holes to fill. They need more athleticism on the wings and size up front.

    This is a team that could take a flyer on moving up to get Drummond.

    Otherwise, they could trade down to get Meyers Leonard or Arnett Moultrie.

    Look for Detroit to actively shop this pick.

No. 10, New Orleans Hornets

10 of 29

    Chances the pick gets dealt: 20 percent.

    While New Orleans might be tempted to deal this pick to move up, they just have too many holes to risk losing a pick or two in the transaction.

    Sitting at this spot, they could either additionally bolster their frontcourt with a center to pair with Davis or a point guard to help Eric Gordon.

    The question here is how much other teams like Austin Rivers.

    Rivers has seen his stock rise dramatically, and someone could move up to get him. Additionally, the point guard market is probably starting to heat up here, so someone might move up to get a point guard before Portland can at No. 11.

No. 11, Portland Trail Blazers

11 of 29

    Chances this pick is dealt: 35 percent.

    If either of these picks is going to be dealt, it probably is this one.

    That being said, Portland might have their pick of a point guard like Kendall Marshall, a shooting guard like Dion Waiters or Austin Rivers or a big man like Meyers Leonard.

    This truly is a seller's market at No. 11.

No. 12, Milwaukee Bucks

12 of 29

    Chances this pick is dealt: 35 percent.

    On the one hand, the Bucks should have their choice of players at positions of need such as power forward, center and a backup wing.

    But on the other, they are a team full of young, promising players and they might decide that they don't need another rookie on the squad.

    The wild card here is Dion Waiters. If this shooting guard is still there, they could use Monta Ellis as trade bait or just choose to keep Waiters as a sixth man.

    This is equally true of Austin Rivers.

No. 13, Phoenix Suns

13 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 10 percent.

    So why is it that Phoenix is so much less likely to deal this pick than their neighbors?

    Because Phoenix has little talent on their roster, but they need to get much younger.

    They won't want to move up because their biggest need, a young point guard, should still be available here.

    Sames goes for a good shooting guard like Rivers.

    The only thing they don't need is a center, and unless someone really blows their hair back, they have little reason to deal this pick.

No. 14, Houston Rockets

14 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 35 percent.

    Okay, so call me crazy, but I think Houston wants to make a splash.

    They basically have been stagnant over the last few years, and they want some star power. They tried to get Pau Gasol last year, and they probably will try to get him again.

    At the very least, they could care less about a mid-first-round pick at this point given the glut of them already on their roster.

    This pick would most likely be packaged as part of a larger deal.

No. 15, Philadelphia 76ers

15 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 25 percent.

    On the one hand, the 76ers are a supremely talented, perimeter-based team that should only get better. On the other hand, they desperately need to gain youth and athleticism up front.

    Meyers Leonard should still be available here, and Tyler Zeller could slip.

    The real wild cards are Terrence and Perry Jones.

    Both have outstanding athleticism but questionable game savvy.

No. 16, Houston Rockets

16 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 35 percent.

    Given that Houston has multiple picks, it makes sense that they might package the two in a larger deal.

No. 17, Dallas Mavericks

17 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 10 percent.

    Unless Dallas is looking to package this deal as part of a larger deal to get more frontcourt help, it makes little sense for them to deal it.

    They need to get younger and more athletic, and they should have some options here.

    And if they don't like their chances to get Deron Williams in free agency, they might want to get a point guard here.

No. 18, Minnesota Timberwolves

18 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 15 percent.

    So one might think that Minnesota would be all for trading this pick to gain a veteran presence for this very young team.

    And sure, if the right guy becomes available, someone like a Tayshaun Prince or a Caron Butler, they might be tempted to put together a package.

    But more than likely, they will choose to add more size or athleticism. They might think about Royce White here.

No. 19, Orlando Magic

19 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 10 percent.

    There really is only one way that this pick gets dealt, and that is if the new management team is trying to pander to Dwight Howard and package this for veterans.

    Personally, I think that given Rob Hennigan's pedigree, he will look to start building through the draft.

    There should be some solid talent here, no reason to mortgage it.

No. 20, Denver Nuggets

20 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: five percent.

    The Denver Nuggets have been the feel-good story of the NBA for the last few years.

    They lost their superstar to the bright lights of the Big Apple, yet they went on to play better without him, and even gave the Lakers a scare this year.

    Given the success of their team so far without a superstar, I couldn't see them dealing this pick, especially considering it won't be worth much.

No. 21 and No. 22, Boston Celtics

21 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 35 percent.

    This goes in conjunction with the next pick.

    The Celtics are at a crossroads. Do they reload with the same old crew and try to make another go of things? Or do they rebuild on the fly?

    Either way, it makes sense to package these two picks to move way up.

No. 23, Atlanta Hawks

22 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 15 percent.

    There is only one way the Hawks deal this pick, and that is if they are packaging it with Josh Smith.

    Since I think they haven't made up their mind about their star forward, I don't see this happening.

No. 24, Cleveland Cavaliers

23 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 30 percent.

    On the one hand, the Cavs need to add depth to their roster. On the other hand, they can afford to gamble away this pick since they already have another, much better pick.

    If they keep it, they will bolster their frontcourt. If they don't, it will be because Royce White has fallen.

    That being said, I really like Moe Harkless here if they keep it.

No. 25, Memphis Grizzlies

24 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 35 percent.

    The Grizzlies have a lot of young, talented players.

    They also don't have a ton of holes on either side of the ball.

    A late first-round pick means little to them at this point, so they probably wouldn't mind dealing it for a future first-rounder.

No. 26, Indiana Pacers

25 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 15 percent.

    Much like the Grizzlies, the Pacers are a young team with little to no need for this pick and could opt to trade it for a future first-rounder.

    That being said, they could opt to package this with Danny Granger for a big man or use the money they would save by dealing this pick to bolster their offer for Roy Hibbert.

No. 27, Miami Heat

26 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: five percent.

    The Heat need young bodies on the cheap, which makes the draft ideal.

    This pick stays put.

No. 28, Oklahoma City Thunder

27 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: less than five percent.

    The Thunder have no real glaring needs, a young roster and a bright future.

    No need to deal this pick.

No. 29, Chicago Bulls

28 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: five percent.

    The Bulls, besides Derrick Rose's injury, are sitting pretty.

    They have no real need to deal this pick and should use it for backcourt depth.

No. 30, Golden State Warriors

29 of 29

    Chances this pick gets dealt: 25 percent.

    The Warriors are wild cards through and through, and some team might be wanting to get back into the first round.

    That being said, second-round picks have less strings attached, so teams might be willing to wait.