Most rookie big men suffer from what I like to call "Derrick Favors syndrome." Symptoms include a lack of low-post moves or any sort of offensive skill, not enough muscle and only one year of college.
This is the exact opposite of Jared Sullinger. He's a two-time All-American who has produced at every level. He's never gotten by on hype or athleticism, he's an incredibly developed scorer for someone his age, and while he's shorter than most power forwards, he makes up for it with strength and skill.
Sullinger reminds me of Paul Millsap. He's a bit undersized, but it doesn't hold him back as a player. He may never be a superstar, but he's the kind of guy any team would love to have.
It bothers me that Andre Drummond, who has a 1.3 percent chance to be Dwight Howard and a 98.7 percent chance to be Kwame Brown, is going to be picked in the top six and Sullinger is slipping into the late first round.
Yes, I know there are injury concerns, but come on—how many of these undeveloped, overhyped big men do we need to see fail before NBA teams come to their senses and stop drafting them so highly? Was Hasheem Thabeet not enough? Is any GM jumping at the chance to defend Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade?
No, most of the time these big men fail. The ones who succeed are the ones who were productive for multiple college seasons, have an NBA-ready body and have actually developed a few go-to moves.
That's Sullinger. His ceiling might not be very high, but his floor is. There is no way this guy is going to be a bust, and he's going to be close to what he'll end up being right from the start. Mark my words: He's the next Paul Millsap.