Roger Federer: Fed-Ex Is More Likely to Win US Open Than Wimbledon

Timothy Rapp@@TRappaRTFeatured ColumnistJune 20, 2012

PARIS, FRANCE - JUNE 05:  Roger Federer of Switzerland is thrown a ball in his men's singles quarter final match against Juan Martin Del Potro of Argentina during day 10 of the French Open at Roland Garros on June 5, 2012 in Paris, France.  (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Mike Hewitt/Getty Images

I don't think we've seen Roger Federer win his last Grand Slam title. He's still too good for that. But I don't think his time will be at Wimbledon, either.

For now, his best chance to win a Grand Slam title this year is at the US Open. Let me explain why.

The easiest explanation is that Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are the hottest players in the men's game right now, and until either player's momentum is broken at a Grand Slam, each is tough to bet against.

It doesn't hurt that the two of them have combined to win three of the last four Wimbledon titles.

Of course, Federer won the other in 2009, the last of the six titles he has at the famous tournament. But that title came at the end of Federer's dominance over the game, and he only won one Grand Slam title (the 2010 Australian Open) since.

Plus—and this is just a hunch on my part, so bear with me—Andy Murray is the most likely candidate to knock off one of the top two. He's made three straight Wimbledon semifinals, the crowd will be behind him and at some point he's due to break through and win a Grand Slam.

Like I said, that's just a hunch. But I like Murray heading into Wimbledon.

Plus, while the US Open has been extremely kind to Roger Federer—he won all five of his titles there in consecutive years from 2004 to 2008—it hasn't been as kind to Djokovic or Nadal.

While each have one there, both have only managed to do so once. Federer probably should have beaten Djokovic at the tournament last year after winning the first two sets, and Nadal has only advanced to one other US Open final alongside his one win there.

Something tells me if Federer is to win a Grand Slam this year, it will have to be at the US Open. Between the momentum of Djokovic and Nadal and Federer's proficiency at the US Open compared to the top two, it seems the most likely event for Federer to to win.


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