Fantasy Football 2012: Mock Simulation When Holding the No. 11 Draft Slot

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Fantasy Football 2012: Mock Simulation When Holding the No. 11 Draft Slot
Buffalo's Fred Jackson, a consensus top-10 running back this summer, averaged 137.6 total yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game last season. (Photo Credit: US PRESSWIRE)

For the year-round thrill ride that is fantasy football, here's another dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 11 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring), working exclusively off MockDraftCentral.com's current Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings.

 

Round 1, Pick 11 overall: Motive—Best overall player

First option: RB Darren McFadden, Raiders
Second option: RB Matt Forte, Bears
Third option: RB Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

Round 2, Pick 14 overall: Motive—Best player available

First option: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Second option: RB Matt Forte, Bears
Third option: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

Round 3, Pick 35 overall: Motive—Best player available, preferably tailback

First option: RB Fred Jackson, Bills
Second option: WR Roddy White, Falcons
Third option: WR Mike Wallace, Steelers

Round 4, Pick 38 overall: Motive—Best receiver or running back

First option: WR Mike Wallace, Steelers
Second option: WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
Third option: RB Roy Helu, Redskins

Round 5, Pick 59 overall: Motive—Best wide receiver available

First option: WR Steve Johnson, Bills
Second option: WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
Third option: WR Pierre Garcon, Redskins

Round 6, Pick 62 overall: Motive—Best player available

First option: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
Second option: TE Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
Third option: RB Javhid Best, Lions

Round 7, Pick 83 overall: Motive—Best tailback or wide receiver

First option: WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
Second option: WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers
Third option: WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars

Round 8, Pick 86 overall: Motive—Best running back or receiver available

First option: RB Toby Gerhart, Vikings
Second option: WR Sidney Rice, Seahawks
Third option: TE Fred Davis, Redskins

Round 9, Pick 107 overall: Motive—Best wide receiver available

First option: WR Laurent Robinson, Jaguars
Second option: WR Nate Washington, Titans
Third option: WR Mike Williams, Buccaneers

Round 10, Pick 110 overall: Motive—Best player available, preferably tight end

First option: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions
Second option: WR Nate Washington, Titans
Third option: RB Evan Royster, Redskins

Round 11, Pick 131: Motive—Best running back available

First option: RB Evan Royster, Redskins
Second option: RB Felix Jones, Cowboys
Third option: RB Ryan Williams, Cardinals

Round 12, Pick 134: Motive—Best defense available

First option: D/ST Pittsburgh Steelers
Second option: D/ST Green Bay Packers
Third option: D/ST Baltimore Ravens

Round 13, Pick 155: Motive—Best quarterback available

First option: QB Andy Dalton, Bengals
Second option: QB Joe Flacco, Ravens
Third option: QB Matt Flynn, Seahawks

Round 14, Pick 158: Motive—Best kicker available

First option: PK Mike Nugent, Bengals
Second option: PK Steven Hauschka, Seahawks
Third option: PK Rian Lindell, Bills

Round 15, Pick 179: Motive—Best playmaking tight end available

First option: TE Coby Fleener, Colts
Second option: TE Kellen Winslow Jr., Seahawks
Third option: TE Heath Miller, Steelers

Round 16, Pick 182: Motive—Best wide receiver available

First option: WR Titus Young, Lions
Second option: WR Austin Collie, Colts
Third option: WR Jonathan Baldwin, Chiefs

Breakdown

  • Matt Forte holds a higher ranking in my most recent Top 75 Overall list, but we're close enough to training camp to wonder if Forte's contentious contract negotiation with the Bears will wreak havoc in August. It also helps that McFadden (768 total yards, five TDs in seven games last year) should have a monster season with the Raiders. Michael Bush is gone (no more vulture TDs), leaving Taiwan Jones and Mike Goodson as the main backups. Throw in the notion opposing defenses will have to respect an Oakland quarterback for once (Carson Palmer), and D-Mac should be a fantasy force.

  • Of the 14 or so mock simulations of the last three months, this marks the first time I drafted both BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Toby Gerhart, but failed to land Detroit's Jahvid Best (my No. 22 rusher). My reasoning is simple: I may value the concussion-plagued Best over BJGE and Gerhart...but I don't want him before Round 8. In this case, possessing the 11th draft slot is the fantasy equivalent of no man's land.

  • I had no problems with "reaching" for Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace at 38th overall, even with an absurdly low ADP of 46. Of course, that Round 4 investment likely would have gone to Giants receiver Hakeem Nicks before he broke a bone in his foot. As I wrote a few weeks ago, Nicks likely won't drop too far in my summertime rankings, but if there's a setback in the recuperation process, all bets are off on a top-15 ranking.

  • Trent Richardson's rise up the ADP rankings is equal parts amazing and baffling. Yes, he's a supremely talented back, possibly in the class of Adrian Peterson (circa 2007), but there's no legitimate reason for Richardson (2,017 total yards, 24 TDs last year with Alabama), vaulting from 62 to 16 to nine in a three-week span. Bottom line: There's a zero percent chance I would invest a Round 2 or 3 pick for a rookie in 12-team non-keeper leagues; there's just too much risk involved with a somewhat-unproven commodity.

  • Speaking of Peterson, I hope and pray that he'll be ready for Week 1 action; but in the meantime, Toby Gerhart is a good insurance buy at No. 86 overall. Even if AP plays in the first six games—and avoids the dreaded preseason PUP list—I like Gerhart's chances of fielding per-game averages of 80 total yards and 0.5 touchdowns in that span.

  • I fully expect Peyton Manning to be drafted ahead of Matt Schaub in 85 percent of standard-scoring leagues even though Schaub is the decisive favorite when both QBs square off, from Weeks 1-17.

  • It's a common refrain in mock simulations, but landing Brandon Pettigrew (83 catches, 777 yards, five TDs) at 110 is a nice coup. When healthy, he's a lock for 75 catches and 110 targets. In a Points Per Reception setting, Pettigrew would never slide past the 70th pick.

 

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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