You don't have to consider oddsmakers experts, but understand that they're dangerously good at what they do.
Tiger Woods is the oddmakers' favorite to win the U.S. Open this weekend at the Olympic Club in San Francisco with a current number of 13/2, according to Bovada.
The 14-time major championship winner is coming off a big win at the Memorial Tournament and is hoping to fair much better than he did when he went into the Masters off a win earlier this year.
Much of the reason Tiger is favored right now is not because of his recent win, but because he has the potential to erupt at any moment and, at a course as difficult as this, his ability to make something out of nothing.
The fairways are long and narrow and the rough is deep at the Olympic Club. Tiger may not be hitting every fairway, but nobody is more dangerous out of precarious situations.
Do the golf experts agree with the oddsmakers? Is Tiger their pick to win this week too? Let's take a look.
A quintet of senior golf experts (writers, analyst and editor) offer up their thoughts for Tigers' chances to win the US Open.
Michael Collins, analyst: Going into the U.S. Open I give him a 75 percent chance to win if he hits it as good as he did at Memorial.
Farrell Evans, writer: I give Tiger just a 30 percent chance of winning. He's got to be the favorite but it's just too difficult to know the condition of his game headed into that week.
Bob Harig, writer: A low percentage, maybe 25 percent. It's just too much to pick one player, even Tiger, to win one specific tournament.
Kevin Maguire, editor: I'll say 25 percent, and that's probably a little high.
The consensus here is about a 25-percent chance. Collins' "75 percent" came with the "if he hits it as good as he did at Memorial" and that remains to be seen.
They wouldn't put anyone else's chances higher, but Woods is far from a lock to end his years-long major-less streak.
The Golden Bear was on hand to see Tiger's ridiculous chip-in at Memorial and has subsequently been shown ESPN's Top 10 nearly every day this week. The 18-time major winner gives the edge this week to they guy chasing down his record according to quotes in the Monterey Herald:
"If Tiger plays like he did at the Memorial, he'll be tough," Nicklaus said. "But there's also so many good players playing well right now. One thing's for sure —it's going to be a great tournament."
Jack hits home with a similar point to Collins' saying "if" Tiger plays like he did at Memorial. Unfortunately, the last time Woods went into a major off a win he played nothing like he did in his previous win.
Steve Elling and Shane Bacon, CBS Sports' resident golf experts made their picks for the US Open and one actually picked Tiger while the other went the complete opposite direction.
Steve Elling: Lee Westwood. From tee to green, there’s probably not a player better-suited to the narrow confines of Olympic Club.
Shane Bacon: Ahhhhhhhh, I didn't want to do this! I really, really didn't want to pull this trigger. He's the odds-on favorite. He is coming off a win. He is the guy that everyone cares about at Olympic Club, and the guy that seems to be coming in as confident as anyone. But still, taking Tiger to win a major? It just feels … dirty. Oh well, I think the course sets up well for him and I think he's going to snag his 15th major of his career this week in San Francisco.
Westwood's a fine pick, but he's never won a major before and the same questions surrounding his game still exist.
As for Tiger, again, nobody can handle the rigors of this course better than he can.