Belmont Stakes 2012 Post Positions: How Draw Will Affect Betting Odds

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Belmont Stakes 2012 Post Positions: How Draw Will Affect Betting Odds
Al Bello/Getty Images

The post position draw for the 2012 Belmont Stakes will be broadcast live today at 11 a.m. ET on MSG and can be live streamed on the official race Web site.

It’s extremely important for some horses to land a solid starting stall in this race and it could make a huge impact on the outcome of the event.

One reason why so many people are going to tune in and stream the event is that it makes a big difference in the odds that each horse will likely end up.

Let’s take a look two big ways the draw could impact this particular field.

 

No. 4 Post Is Most Valuable

Over the past 10 years (with the exception of 2003 and 2007 because of their ridiculously small fields), the No. 4 post position was the best to draw. It was the only starting gate to produce two winners in that time frame.

It’s also been a solid spot for place finishers, with three runners finishing second or third coming out of that gate in those eight races.

Look for whoever wins the No. 4 spot to drop in odds dramatically.

Will the No. 4 horse win this year?

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Middle Posts Are the Way to Go

In the same sampling (since 2002, without ’03 and ’07), the No. 2, No. 4, No. 5, No.7, No. 8 and No. 9 posts have placed three times.

The No. 6 post has placed just twice and the No. 1, No. 3, No. 11 and No. 12 posts have placed just once.

With the exception of the No. 2 post, you don’t want the horse you are wagering on to be too close to the rail or too far from it.

Any horses that are pushed outside or inside will have their odds go up for this reason.

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