2012 MLB Draft: 7 Potential Busts from Day 1
As with the previous slideshow on the seven steals from Day 1 of the MLB draft, here is a list of seven potential busts from Day 1.
I'm keeping the busts in the first round as compensatory picks can be a pain to project, considering the vast majority of them are high schoolers.
Without further delay...
Carlos Correa, SS, Houston Astros
Astros fans who watched the draft are probably going to yell at me for this, but I am going to go against the showers of praise for Correa, the No. 1 overall pick, the highest drafted alumnus from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, and say that he could potentially be a bust.
Don't get me wrong, Correa was definitely a top 10, if not a top five pick, but first overall?
I would have thought the Astros would have gone for Stanford's Mark Appel, who was one of the best college pitchers, and the presumptive first pick, and if not him, then definitely Byron Buxton, whose ceiling was especially high.
I'm not saying that Correa will flame out, like former shortstop prospects Matt Bush and Tim Beckham, rather, he could play a role in the organization, but I just don't feel that he'll be one of the best first overall picks. Best case scenario, he does turn out well, but he's not an All-Star. Worst case, he fringes or is traded to another team a la Adrian Gonzalez.
Bottom line, Correa was good, but he definitely wasn't THAT good.
Kevin Gausman, P, Baltimore Orioles
There is something about the phrase draft-eligible sophmore that gives me chills, and in this case, the Orioles should be feeling this way too.
Kevin Gausman, out of LSU, is one of those guys who is a DES, following former TCU and current Nationals pitcher Matt Purke, who fell out of the first round into the third.
Gausman is a diamond in the rough, but there are concerns that he is too raw. His scouting report also pointed out that he needs to work on his command and control, and even then, he still won't have near-perfect accuracy.
Another point made was inconsistency in his arm slots, as he had a project curveball. Although the adage is the more pitches the better, the curveball must be taken off Gausman's repertoire, or it will impede him.
Gausman will need a lot of help if he wants to shed the potential bust label, but for now, we'll have to see how he does in the Super Regionals.
Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland Indians
Although Naquin was on watch lists as early as his junior year of high school, I have to believe that his selection by the Cleveland Indians was a big mistake.
Naquin was drafted as a center fielder, a position which he has been untested. While he can hit and run, it's his defense that he needs to work on.
Naquin's defense is weak, and for me, he compares to Johnny Damon. In a deep park like Progressive Field, his choice is a major question mark. One hopes that he will prove doubters wrong, especially in a city like Cleveland.
Lucas Giolito, P, Washington Nationals
This pick could have fallen one of two ways. If Giolito had not been dealing with an elbow (UCL) injury, I would have probably put him as one of the best steals in the draft, but being that Giolito is a high school arm that still needs to develop more, I have my concerns.
Washington has made it known through their drafting strategy that they want big names, but could this strategy backfire? The Nationals selected Rice slugger Anthony Rendon last year, and he's been hurt, so could Giolito be next?
If Giolito does recover, and pitches at a pre-injury level, he could find himself in the Nationals rotation in four years, but right now, he needs to develop his arm so he doesn't become another Mark Prior or Brien Taylor.
Marcus Stroman, P, Toronto Blue Jays
This one is also going to cause some controversy, so I will make it abundantly clear why I'm not sure Stroman will do well: Size and the fact that he is a relief pitcher.
We'll start off with size: Not many pitchers lower than 5'11" are in the majors, and Stroman, a full two inches shorter, may or may not fit the status quo. Heck, even I'm taller than Stroman.
Size is often a key part in pitching, as it is a part of command and durability. In the case of Stroman, who compensates by attacking hitters, this could either work in pro ball or go wrong.
While Stroman can't grow anymore, the best way to avoid being labeled a potential bust is that he becomes a ROOGY and works from that.
James Ramsey, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
Sometimes, when it comes to drafting, you have one guy who manages to slide up to the late first round, and you wonder who this guy is. In this case, that guy is Florida State's James Ramsey.
Questions arise on whether he was too safe of a selection, as mock draft after mock draft did not show Ramsey as a first- or even a compensatory-round selection.
While Ramsey may be a question mark here, he could potentially be one of the first draftees to make the majors, albeit as a September call up. Nonetheless, with players like Rickie Shaffer, Victor Roache and others still on the board, Ramsey will still be considered too safe of a draft pick.
Deven Marrero, SS, Boston Red Sox
If Deven Marrero was the best college shortstop in the draft, why did he fall all the way to the 24th pick?
To classify Marrero as an All Glove No Hit shortstop is being too harsh here. Coming off two down years in which his offensive production dropped, however, does put him there slightly.
Marrero was projected as a top 15 selection, but his drop and the fact that he was the fifth shortstop picked, raised some concern.
While his defensive capability is great, he definitely is not the next Nomar Garciaparra here; however, he's not bad enough to be another Mark Belanger, the model of the AGNH shortstops.
Still, the Red Sox will have to find a way to help him reclaim his batting stroke if they want him to come up, and with the fact that he has one more year of amateur eligibility, you can probably guess that he'll sign. However, he still remains a potential bust candidate.