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Predicting Early Odds These 20 Rookies Make the Pro Bowl

Wes StueveContributor IIIMay 31, 2012

Predicting Early Odds These 20 Rookies Make the Pro Bowl

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    Right now, every NFL team is wondering what they will get out of their rookies in year one? Will it be disaster? Will it be solid? Will it be the Pro Bowl?

    Of the many players about to experience their first NFL season, only a few have a shot at flying to Hawaii when the season ends. Who are those few?

    Every fan hates to watch the Pro Bowl, but every player loves to go there—no one dislikes a paid vacation to Hawaii—and it's a rookie's dream to go there. Which rookies have the best chances of realizing this dream?

Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

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    Though he is one of the most NFL-ready quarterbacks in memory, Andrew Luck's chances of making the Pro Bowl aren't great. Why? Because Luck is a quarterback.

    It is incredibly difficult for a rookie quarterback to immediately play at an elite level. Even Luck will go through some struggles, and his lack of elite physical ability won't push him over the top

    Pro Bowl Odds: 15 percent

Luke Kuechly, LB, Carolina Panthers

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    An intelligent, instinctive linebacker, Luke Kuechly is ready for the NFL. However, Kuechly may never be an elite player, and he almost certainly won't be one as a rookie.

    Kuechly will start at the weakside linebacker position next to Jon Beason, which should help out the rookie. Even so, Kuechly isn't likely to turn too many heads.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 10 percent

Mark Barron, S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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    Mark Barron's top-10 status came out of nowhere as the draft approached. Barron was considered a mid-first-round pick until he catapulted into the top 10.

    Widely considered a solid-but-not-great safety prospect, Barron shouldn't be expected to play like Eric Berry or Earl Thomas as a rookie. Barron will need to play that well to make the Pro Bowl.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 5 percent

Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

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    As a running quarterback, Robert Griffin's chances of success in his rookie campaign are significantly higher than a typical quarterback. Even Vince Young was able to impress as a rookie!

    However, Griffin will need to dominate to make the Pro Bowl. With guys like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton in the NFC, Griffin's odds don't look great.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 18 percent

Fletcher Cox, DT, Philadelphia Eagles

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    Few defensive tackles are more athletic than Fletcher Cox, and he is entering into an ideal situation with Jim Washburn coaching Philadelphia's defensive line. 

    Based on talent alone, Cox doesn't seem like a first-year Pro-Bowler. The Eagles' scheme and talent will help, though, and Cox shouldn't be ruled as impossible.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 10 percent

Trent Richardson, RB, Cleveland Browns

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    There isn't a safer or more NFL-ready rookie than Trent Richardson. The Alabama star is a physical freak with little to improve on.

    Richardson will be receiving plenty of carries as a rookie, and he'll catch some passes too. The problem with Richardson making the Pro Bowl is the other running backs in the AFC. Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice and Arian Foster will be tough to beat out.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 35 percent

Matt Kalil, OT, Minnesota Vikings

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    The best left tackle prospect in years, Matt Kalil has a chance to make an impression early. Elite left tackles typically don't need much time to adjust to the NFL, and Kalil fits the bill.

    Kalil isn't perfect, but he is almost certain to immediately play at an above-average level. The name recognition that goes with the No. 4 pick doesn't hurt any, either.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 40 percent

David DeCastro, OG, Pittsburgh Steelers

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    It was a shock to the draft world when David DeCastro fell into the 20's. DeCastro was a phenomenal guard prospect, and he is ready to dominate.

    The Stanford guard could easily play at a Pro Bowl level as a rookie. The bigger question is whether DeCastro will be recognized by the fans and players so soon.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 40 percent

Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals

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    In order for a rookie wide receiver to make the Pro Bowl, he has to be a truly rare player. Michael Floyd is a good player, but he isn't an A.J. Green.

    Floyd's skill-set isn't dominant enough for him to reach that level so quickly. It will take time for the No. 13 prospect to even be in Pro Bowl consideration.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 2 percent

Stephon Gilmore, CB, Buffalo Bills

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    Stephon Gilmore is an excellent athlete with huge upside, but how many cornerbacks make the Pro Bowl in their rookie season?

    Gilmore will see the field plenty, and he will provide a boost to the Buffalo defense. He will also go through spells of inconsistency, though.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 8 percent

Kevin Zeitler, OG, Cincinnati Bengals

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    A good-but-not-great guard prospect, Kevin Zeitler isn't too likely to make the Pro Bowl. Zeitler isn't really dominant in any area, and it will take him several years before he has much of a shot at Hawaii.

    In fact, Zeitler may never be a Pro Bowl guard. Many great interior linemen never make it, and Zeitler could be one of them.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 1 percent

Bruce Irvin, OLB, Seattle Seahawks

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    Bruce Irvin is boom or bust. If Irvin plays well, he'll probably make the Pro Bowl. If Irvin doesn't make the Pro Bowl, though, it's probably because he's on his way out of the NFL.

    Irvin will either develop the ability to get after the quarterback or he won't. He could be Aldon Smith as a rookie, or he could be a complete non-factor. There is no compromise.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 12 percent

Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama

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    There is a legitimate argument that Janoris Jenkins was in fact the draft's best cornerback. Jenkins had his fair share of off-the-field issues, but he is a great player.

    Jenkins appears to be penciled in as a starter, which puts him ahead of most rookie cornerbacks. However talented he may be, though, Jenkins is still a rookie.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 5 percent

Coby Fleener, TE, Indianapolis Colts

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    It's hard to imagine a rookie tight end making the Pro Bowl, but the AFC isn't exactly filled with fantastic talent at the position. Sure, there's Rob Gronkowski, but how many other stud tight ends are there in the AFC?

    Coby Fleener already has chemistry with Andrew Luck, and he isn't facing much competition to start. Indianapolis will use Fleener like Stanford did, and the rookie could make quite an impact.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 10 percent

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Justin Blackmon is ready to start in the NFL, but he may not be ready for much more than that. Blackmon can run routes and gain yards after the catch. That doesn't sound too special.

    In his prime, Blackmon may not be a Pro-Bowler. As a rookie, he almost certainly won't be. Blackmon simply isn't talented enough to overcome his lack of experience. Having Blaine Gabbert at quarterback doesn't help.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 1 percent

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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    It will be interesting to see how many carries Doug Martin gets compared to LeGarrette Blount. Martin will likely receive the majority, but that may not be enough to propel Martin to Hawaii.

    Though talented, Martin isn't exactly special. He will probably be a solid back for most of his career, but he doesn't seem like a perennial Pro Bowl-er.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 7 percent

Mychal Kendricks, LB, Philadelphia Eagles

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    An incredible athlete, Mychal Kendricks will make plenty of plays behind the line of scrimmage. Kendricks' overall numbers and play may not be good enough for the Pro Bowl, though.

    The California product will likely start at weakside linebacker, which will also help his chances. However, Philadelphia's penetrating defensive line won't keep linemen away from Kendricks, and he will have to shred blockers on more plays than not.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 10 percent

Cordy Glenn, OT, Buffalo Bills

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    Few 6'6", 345-pounders are as athletic as Cordy Glenn is. The Georgia product looks to start at left tackle from day one, and his physical abilities should help him adjust to the NFL.

    Glenn could easily bust, but he could also develop into a Jason Peters-type player. There is plenty of upside, even as a rookie.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 13 percent

Bryan Anger, P, Jacksonville Jaguars

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    Why not? After all, a punter has to be pretty special to be drafted in the third round.

    Bryan Anger is an incredible punter prospect—admittedly, that doesn't justify the pick—and he should be elite from his first game onward.

    However, Shane Lechler has all but solidified his Pro Bowl status—he's been selected the past five seasons—and Anger will struggle to beat him out.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 18 percent

Chandler Jones, DE, New England Patriots

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    Bill Belichick should never be underestimated. New England's pass rush has been abysmal the past few years, but the Patriots didn't have much talent at the position.

    Chandler Jones is undeniably talented. If New England can get 10 sacks out of Mark Anderson and Andre Carter, it should be able to get more out of Jones.

    Pro Bowl Odds: 10 percent

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