When asked about whether luck plays a part in football Don Shula once famously remarked, “Sure, luck means a lot in football. Not having a good quarterback is bad luck.”
This has become increasingly evident in a league starved of good quarterback play. Just ask the Dolphins about their quarterbacks since Dan Marino retired.
The play of a team’s quarterback can make or break a good team. The Dallas Cowboys were struggling at the beginning of 2006 with the midland play of a venerable Drew Bledsoe. In stepped Tony Romo and the rest is cliché.
Eli was once the Manning known for meltdowns not touchdowns, let alone Super Bowl winning drives. His elevated play late in 2007 showed that the Giants were not wrong in making a controversial trade for his services. The Giants now have stability at a position that year in and out they had questioned before.
For every Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson there is a list much longer that is etched with names like Bradshaw, Namath, Montana, Young, Aikman, Elway, Favre, Brady, Roethlisberger and the Mannings. It takes a good quarterback to make a good team great.
The Dolphins have fielded some pretty good teams over the last decade. They’ve fielded some dogs too. If the 2002 or 2004 teams, with an unstoppable Ricky Williams, had a top-flight quarterback they would have not only made the playoffs, they may have won a couple. They also wouldn’t have tanked completely when he went on his now infamous sojourn.
Matt Ryan is the best quarterback to emerge from the college ranks in two years and he most likely will not be followed by anyone next year. Many are estimating that this year’s draft class of quarterbacks will be the last one with depth and high-end talent for another two.
Teams that need a quarterback will have to look hard and long at Ryan and decide if they want to be involved in a move to get him, like the Giants were with Eli.
At 6’5” and 220 pounds, Ryan is a prototypical NFL quarterback. He has the height to survey the field and the mass to stand tall in the pocket. Eli’s now famous play in the Super Bowl was a product of his size, being 6’4” and 224 pounds. He had the strength to break away from the collapsing pocket and out of the grasping hands of New England’s desperate defense.
The Dolphins haven’t had that kind of play in a long time. Last year they drafted a promising young quarterback in the second round. John Beck was a standout at Brigham Young and has several traits that could make him a success on the NFL level.
He has a very quick release, something Dolphins faithful have learned to revere in a quarterback (Dan Marino had the quickest release of any quarterback to play in the NFL).
At 6’2” and 216 pounds, Beck has good but not great size. He shows quick feet and the ability to scramble when the pocket collapses. His arm is strong and he can be accurate when he has time and confidence.
He also had a miserable series of starts at the end of last year.
The Dolphins don’t know what they have in him, though Parcells has alluded that Beck has “it” and also that GM Jeff Ireland thinks highly of him.
Meanwhile there’s Matt Ryan and the Dolphins No. 1 overall selection. The two quarterbacks that Ryan gets compared to are two of Parcells’ favorites: Drew Bledsoe and Ben Roethlisberger.
Ryan has the football first attitude and the vocal grittiness that Parcells likes in a quarterback. He’s a weight room guy and a motivator, which are both pluses with Parcells.
Parcells has said that Beck and someone, not Josh McCown who the Dolphins just signed as a backup, will be competing for the starting job. This is most likely a head game for teams like Atlanta and Baltimore who desperately need upgrades at quarterback. Parcells wants to trade out of the first spot. Spreading rumors about being interested in Ryan, he may get someone to bite.
If stuck there at No. 1, with no takers on a trade and doubts about the most important position on his team, why wouldn’t Parcells pick the best quarterback available?
One positive to drafting a quarterback is that they are always good trade bait. If Ryan was drafted and never able to beat out an emerging John Beck then there will almost certainly be a team that will believe that they can develop him. Think about how many times players like Joey Harrington and David Carr will be given second chances.
The Dolphins may very well draft him just to force a trade with one of the teams that desire his pedigree.
They also may draft him to solve South Beach’s riddle of the ages: Who shall be our quarterback?
Why They Shouldn’t
If the Dolphins don’t draft Matt Ryan it will be because they have reasonable confidence in how John Beck will develop. It’s either that or they think that they can find Beck’s competition in a later round, say Joe Flacco in round two or three.
Ryan is also a bit of a gunslinger, something Parcells does not find desirable. He turns the ball over too much by trying to force throws. In the NFL, Matt Ryan will have to learn to manage the game more and do less of the heavy lifting himself.
Plus, as mentioned in previous entries of this series, the Dolphins need to fill several holes and already have a young quarterback to develop. A trade might buy them two to three starters in this draft rather than just one.
Not to mention the “bust” factor is very high with quarterbacks. Especially when they’re drafted by a franchise in upheaval.
If Ryan busts and Beck is our guy then the Dolphins will have wasted the full value of their much-deserved No. 1 pick. The pick will deflate in value (from a trade standpoint) and Miami will have missed out on a game-changing player.
This year’s draft is one that they desperately need to get right. Matt Ryan may be too risky in the end. He could also just as easily be the answer to that riddle.
More articles like this one can be found on The Phinisher's blog @ www.thephinisher.com
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4 months ago
Try and get a hold of a game tape John Beck at BYU vs. Matt Ryan at BC played in September 2006. Which was the better QB? Beck looked better. Here were the numbers
Ryan was 29-for-48 for 356 yards
Beck completed 38 of 59 passes for 436 yards
4 months ago
Thanks for the tip. I like Beck and I think he really has a shot at becoming a good quarterback on the NFL level. I also think the interest in Ryan is a smoke and mirrors job by The Tuna. He'll get his trade, even if he has to draft a player to force the issue.
4 months ago
Josh McCown would not have signed with Miami to be a designated back-up. He could and was very much wanted back by Oakland. Josh McCown knew Oakland had to play JaMarcu$ Ru$$ell this upcoming season. McCown signed with Miami because they promised him a chance to compete for the starting QB job.
4 months ago
Josh McCown is okay. I agree with you that he intends to start and start he may, but he is not a long term answer. He's had several shots in the league (all on bad teams) and has been midland every time. As I said, Parcells is probably just bluffing about Beck vs. Mystery QB and intends to let McCown and Beck battle it out. Then again he may not be, and that's all I meant by that statement in the article. I like the McCown signing. I just don't expect him to be much more than a Jay Fiedler type at best (which is an improvement, if only slight).
4 months ago
I think it's Ryan or no QB for the Fins' in this year's draft. Can't really pick up a QB at the top of round two for the second year in a row, just doesn't make sense.
To be honest, I still think they should draft Chris Long. Beck needs another year-the franchise placed a great deal of faith in him by bypassing BQ and picking him up in the 2nd....he can't just be forgotten. It's silly to place any kind of stock in what QB's do as rookies. Believe it or not, there's no such thing as an "NFL" ready QB...I just don't buy it at all
4 months ago
They need someone with more experience at QB. If they want to win a game in the next 10 years.
Peace...Iron mike
4 months ago
I don't buy into the hype about Matt Ryan. I believe his poor passer efficiency rating, his high number of interceptions, and his mediocre statistics, as well as his occasional meltdowns in the pocket, cannot simply be written off as having poor talent around him. I understand none of his receivers were superstars, but he did have five receivers with 45 or more catches on the season. Even taking into account that he threw more passes (650+) than any other QB in the nation besides Texas Tech's Graham Harrell, those are still impressive numbers and means someone on his team obviously knows how to grab and hold a ball. Compare him to Brian Brohm, who had one receiver with 70 catches and no one else who broke the 45 mark.
But let's leave that all aside for a minute. Let's say Matt Ryan is a great QB who was simply hampered by an extremely poor team. If that is the case, does it make sense for the Dolphins to take him? With all due respect, the 'Fins aren't exactly a dream team of superstars either. If Ryan threw 19 interceptions playing teams like Florida State and Maryland, how will he fare against the Patriots? He was statistically one of the worst passers in a BCS conference - if his team's low level of talent can be blamed for that, then how does that translate with the Dolphins, arguably the least talented team in the NFL?
And compare this to Brian Brohm. I understand a lot of people hate on the guy and they do have valid reasons. But the one obvious fallacy is to claim he played with a very talented team. Louisville in '07 had absolutely no semblance of a defense or a running game. Their O-line was Swiss cheese - Brohm spent more time on the turf than on his feet. The only area of talent - wide receiver - suffered injuries and suspensions to their starting players. At times, Brohm was playing with 2nd and 3rd stringers - no-names like Trent Guy, Scott Long, Patrick Carter, Sergio Spencer, Chris Vaughn. Boston College went 11-3. Louisville went 6-6.
How did Brohm do? Well, if anything, he had his best season ever. He nearly doubled his previous season's TD total with 30 on the season. He threw one less TD than Matt Ryan (31) having played two fewer games and 180 fewer pass attempts. His interceptions went up, which brought him down to 8th on the passer efficiency rankings, but still just 12 on the season.
What's my point? Maybe Brohm won't be the better NFL QB. Maybe the scouts are right. But Matt Ryan put up his worst statistical season supposedly because his team had no talent (despite catching 45 passes apiece). We don't know how valid that excuse might be. On the other hand, we do know for certain that Brian Brohm had, in some ways, his best season ever, despite injuries, suspensions, arrests and plain ol' suckiness plaguing his starting lineup.
Which guy sounds like he'll be a better fit with the Dolphins?
It is my opinion that for the 'Fins to draft Matt Ryan would be a mistake. He's a West Coast system quarterback and there's enough questions about the guy to merit some concerns. In fact, I think it's a mistake to draft Ryan anywhere in the top 10 picks. What the 'Fins need desperately is to trade down, maybe get another second rounder. They have far too many needs and they need picks more than they need quarterbacks. If they can't trade down, then highest-rated talent shouldn't be their policy. They should take position of most need, with most potential for immediate impact. For the 'Fins, that'll most likely be a lineman - Dorsey, Ellis, Gholston, Long or the other Long.
Let me open myself to public tarring-and-feathering when I go on to state: Matt Ryan shouldn't be drafted in the first round, period. He's not a first-round talent and it's been hype about his "intangibles" that's carried him up the draft board more than anything. He'll go on to be the Rex Grossman of this draft - hot and cold, has the tools, but too inconsistent, will amaze you on some days, will make you cry on others.
Brian Brohm? Not sure. He could be big, but he also might not. But by far, more consistent than Ryan. At worst, you'll get a game manager, a guy who can make the throws and makes solid decisions. He may never be a superstar, but he'll be a solid starter for someone.
4 months ago
Again, I think that Parcells is using Ryan as leverage for a trade. I wouldn't put it past him to draft Matt and force the issue with Atlanta or Baltimore. The series of "The Dolphins Should Draft..." is more about weighing the outcomes of the selections than actually offering a recommendation.
3 months ago
I don't think that Ryan is that much ahead of the other 4-5 QB's in the draft to take him #1.
Unless you can trade down, here is who I would target...
1 Chris Long...guys like this just don't come along that often.
2 Dan Connor...He isn't the all time leader at LB at LB University for nothing. He and Long playing inside and outside LB side by side would be awesome. And with Crowder and Porter on the other side...
2A. Best available OT
3. Andre Woodson....I am from Ky originally, and their Football teams ALWAYS suck. Except last year. And the reason is he carried them to win as many games as they did. I watched Louisville a lot too. From the games I saw, when the going got tough, Brohm folded, while Woodson would at least try to make some kind of comeback. I am not saying he wouldn't need some work, But I would rather have him in the 3rd AND Chris long, than Ryan 1st overall.
4-7 OT, OG, OT, OT... you get it.
3 months ago
Good article, thanks for both perspectives. I agree that Ryan's the best "potential" QB available over the last 2 draft years, but if you want to factor in the last 3 years, then I'd put him at #4 or 5 (Jaws loved Clemens) so everything's relative. Either way, he's not worth a top 10 pick and he's far from a "franchise QB." He might be a value in the mid teens to mid 20's but then again so will Brohm be if Tuna can orchestrate some trade magic and we find ourselves drafting there. I'm for Beck and aside from size, which isn't unimportant, I don't see Ryan as an appreciable upgrade. On the other hand, at the right price, competition brings the best out in everyone. I'd want Beck to be the starter if he WINS the job.... and having a Matt Schaub in the wings either to step in or as trading bait is never a bad thing.
3 months ago
I'd prefer Chris Bush in this spot. That guy's got a great arm.
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